United States (US) Economic Forecasts and Risk Ratings
Medium- and Long-term Forecast
- Real GDP growth will average 2.2% per year during 2016–46
- The outlook for inflation remains moderate. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will average 2.4% per year over the forecast period. Core inflation will average 2.0%.
- Nonfarm business productivity growth averages 1.7% over the forecast period
- The current-account deficit remains negative over the forecast period, averaging 3.3% of GDP
- Real oil prices eventually stabilize at about $80–85 per barrel (2009 dollars)
- The labor market improves over the forecast period, with the unemployment rate eventually settling around 4.7%
- The federal budget deficit remains in deficit through 2046
Country Risk Rating for the United States
President Donald Trump's administration promises to have a major impact on the domestic political and violent risk operating environment, as Republicans maintain majority control of both Congressional houses. Trump campaigned on a domestic platform highlighting economic disaffection, immigration limitations, and an "America First" foreign policy featuring trade protectionism. Although jihadist attack risk remains, radicalized domestic groups and individuals pose a more imminent threat, with prevention efforts growing less effective. Protests, particularly around police-related violence and the Black Lives Matter movement, are increasing. National security drives foreign policy, with China, Iran and Russia featuring prominently.
A note on our risk ratings: IHS Markit derives country risk ratings for 206 countries, based on six separate ratings in each country: Political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security with 22 detailed sub-aggregate risks. These ratings allow you to quantify risk with greater specificity with a scoring system based on a 0.1-10 logarithmic scale. Seven risk bands, from low to extreme, allow you to compare and contrast risk between countries and regions.
Chris G. Christopher, Ph.D.
Director – US and Global Consumer Economics, IHS Markit
Kristin Reynolds, Ph.D.
Senior Principal Economist – US Economy, IHS Markit
Ozlem Yaylaci, Ph.D.
Principal Economist, IHS Markit
Economist II, IHS Markit
Nariman Behravesh, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, IHS Markit
Sara L. Johnson, CBE
Senior Research Director – Global Economics, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
Patrick Newport, Ph.D.
Director - US Economics, IHS Markit
See how the IHS Markit economics and country risk team works with you
Watch this short video to see how our experts helped a customer strategic planning team choose a Southeast Asian manufacturing location.
Industry Success Stories
Baker Hughes Accurately Forecasted Falling Oil Prices to Enable Better Strategic Business Decisions
One of the world’s largest oilfield service providers enhanced the forecasting accuracy of its oil rig count model from 90 to 97.6 percent, predicted the impact of price changes on customer spending and demand for product lines (by leveraging 3,500 factors) and created a model that predicted the deflation of WTI crude oil prices in late 2014.Learn More About Our Customers Success
Airbus Publishes 20 Year Forecast, "Flying on Demand" – Confirms Strong Growth in Commercial Aviation Markets
This premier aircraft manufacturer produced Flying on Demand, Global Market Forecast 2014-2033, a reference book that provides comprehensive economic, financial and political coverage of 200-plus countries. Stakeholders throughout the commercial airline industry rely on the book’s insights regarding product innovation, production and planning.
XL Catlin “Finds the Good Risks in Difficult Places” and Cuts Costs 20% by Consolidating Research to One Source
A global insurance industry leader brought efficiency to risk selection by standardizing with one information provider across all underwriting decisions. This firm thereby reduced research costs by 20%, established a ‘center of excellence’ internally and fueled growth by gaining insights to write risk in areas where others held back.