Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.
August 6, 2015 - Weekly Pricing Pulse
Last week, the IHS MPI was down again by 1.7%, which takes us to a fresh post-2009 low. Driving the figure lower, we had oil down by 4.1% and chemicals at -2.2%, and lumber also retracted some recent gains to finish down by 5.8%. Other notable declines included rubber (down 4.2%), DRAM (down 1.5%), and nonferrous (down 2.2%). The only increases came from ferrous (up 0.3%) and pulp (up 1.5%).
The index is now at its lowest level since May 2009, and it is down by nearly 10% compared with the 2015 peak seen in April. Interestingly, exchange-traded commodities have fared a bit better in absolute terms, although they are still down 13% versus the May peak.
Data trends are signaling further expected weakness in the index over coming weeks. However, given the bearish news flow, prices could edge even lower than the 1% decline expected next week. This week did start off with more negative news coming out of China relating to purchasing managers' index numbers and another decline of more than 2% on Shanghai markets. Additionally, there were suggestions by Iran that an oil-production ramp-up by 0.5 million barrels per day could be achieved in as little as one week after sanctions are lifted versus the one-year horizon assumed by many in the market.