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PEP Review 2014-06

Methanol Process Summary

Table of Contents

Section Page Number

Executive summary 1
Introduction 1
Process technology 1
Product properties 2
Developing technologies 2
Natural gas based licensors 3
Coal gasification based licensors 3
Production economics 3
Methanol production processes 4
Introduction 4
Reaction chemistry 6
Steam methane reforming (SMR) chemistry 7
Partial oxidation (POX) chemistry 8
Combined reforming chemistry 9
Autothermal reforming (ATR) chemistry 11
Coal gasification chemistry 13
Methanol synthesis reaction chemistry 15
Methanol synthesis reaction kinetics 17
Water gas shift reaction 18
CO2 dry reforming 19
Methane cracking 19
Product properties 19
Development status 20
Licensor design advances 21
JM/Davy advanced gas-heated reformer 21
Lurgi’s two-stage methanol synthesis converter 24
Oxygen-blown autothermal reformer technology 27
Air pre-heat steam methane reformer 28
Status of catalyst development 29
Reforming catalysts 29
Methanol synthesis catalysts 29
Typical methanol synthesis converter configurations 30
Process technology alternatives 31
Major commercial methanol licensor offerings 31
Haldor-Topsoe commercial technology 31
JM/Davy low pressure methanol technology 42
Lurgi methanol process technology 55
Toyo Engineering methanol process 65
Coal gasification for methanol production 79
Licensed gasifier technologies 86
Comparison of key process parameters of commercial processes 89
Process economics 92
Introduction 92
Prior PEP publications 92
Economic basis of comparison 93
Feedstock prices 93
Energy and utility unit prices 93
Fixed cost factored estimating factors 94
IHS assumptions for economic analysis 94
Capital investment 95
Project construction timing 96
Available utilities 96
Production cost factors 97
Project economics for natural gas and generic coal based mega methanol processes 97
Capital cost comparison 97
Feedstock consumption intensity 99
Production cost comparison 100
Capital cost segmentation by plant section 101
Mega methanol production economics from syngas 101
Capital cost estimates for ‘back end’ of process 102
Syngas unit raw material consumption 103
Production cost estimate 104
Product margin analysis 105
Coal gasification licensor mega methanol production economics 106
Capital cost comparison 108
Unit coal consumption to produce methanol 109
Unit production cost to produce methanol via coal gasification technologies 110
Profit margin analysis for making methanol via licensed coal gasification technologies 112
Methanol market overview 113
Uses for methanol 113
Conventional uses for methanol 113
Demand drivers for methanol demand growth 113
Emerging uses for methanol 115
Demand for methanol 116
Global methanol demand 116
Segmentation of demand by use 116
Segmentation of methanol demand geographically 117
Historical methanol demand growth 118
Forecast methanol demand growth – geographically and by end use 120
Methanol supply 120
Distribution of global methanol capacity by region 121
Distribution of global methanol capacity by producing company 121
Recent announcements of new capacity 122
Market share of methanol technology licensors 123
Market selection of process technology 124
Methanol global trade 125
Trade patterns 125
Drivers for methanol trade 125
Map of methanol trade 125
Methanol pricing 126
Historic prices for methanol 126
Feedstock historical pricing – Natural gas and coal 127
Historical economics comparison – an iPEPSpectraTM analysis 128
Historical prices 128
Historic methanol pricing 128
Historic natural gas prices 129
Historic coal prices 131
Historic and projected capacity, consumption and operating rates 133
Historical process economics comparison – the iPEPSpectra™ cost module 135
Environmental emissions 152
Greenhouse gas carbon dioxide emissions 152
IHS PEP convention for accounting for carbon dioxide emissions 153
Process emissions 153
Emissions from on-site combustion 154
Emissions from off-site electrical generation 154
How we arrived at these emissions estimates 154
Calculating process emissions 154
Calculating emissions from on-site combustion 155
Calculating emissions from off-site electrical generation 155
Supplemental data sources for methanol plant CO2 emissions 155
Natural gas based methanol plant data 156
Coal based methanol plant data 160
Natural gas based estimate of CO2 emissions from licensor specific methanol processes 160
Coal based estimate of CO2 emissions from licensor specific methanol processes 161
Water consumption 162
References 163
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