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Reinventing the Wheel is not simply about data projections and linear views of the future. At its heart, it is an exercise in understanding how different forces shaping the future can interact and create a future different from the world in which automotive, oil, electric power and chemical companies have operated in for more than a century. Developments in the automotive industry will impact energy and chemicals and vice versa. An approach that joins expertise and convenes a project community across these industries is essential for grasping how the forces of change are shaping the future.
The study will have two parts: The heart of Part I is the build-up of the new knowledge universe and development of scenarios that articulate two different paths for the future of the car, energy and chemicals. Part II will use the scenario framework to detail the investment implications and choices for each of the three industries.
We will cover the world’s largest automotive markets: United States, Europe and China. India, a large and fast-growing market, will also be included. These markets accounted for 71% of global car sales in 2015 and 57% of car gasoline consumption and will set global trends. Our projections go out to 2040.
A sound, fact-based understanding of what is unfolding today is an essential step toward assessing how forces of change will interact and shape the automotive industry to 2040. Our aim is to develop a knowledge universe. Key driving forces that we will investigate, unpack and assess include the following:
IHS Markit, with the input of member companies, will develop two scenarios that present distinctive views of the future of the automotive industry and the impact on energy to 2040, each driven by a determinative logic. Two IHS Markit scenarios, Rivalry and Autonomy, will provide the starting point and macro framework. Rivalry is an evolutionary view of the future. Autonomy illustrates a disruptive pace of change.
Each content-rich scenario outlook will include a narrative describing the developments and surprises of a logically imagined future for cars and energy. The use of a scenario framework enhances decision making and tests choices in a complex, dynamic marketplace by illustrating conditions that may lead to success or failure for a company’s choices.
The narrative and associated data projections to 2040 will address the following in the geographic areas that Reinventing the Wheel will cover:
We will take the next step and identify and address the big questions facing companies in each industry. The choices that companies will need to make, particularly regarding growth opportunities and divestment, will be at the heart of the discussions. This will provide a framework for decision making amid great uncertainty about the future.