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Long-Term Planning and Energy Scenarios

Position for success in an uncertain future

Does your long-term energy planning factor in a range of plausible energy outlooks?

This service helps organizations prepare for the future by examining the key forces that will shape their global business environment in the years ahead, and the possible implications for the energy industry. Clients receive access to three distinct global energy scenarios, including a planning case with detailed forecast data to 2030 and qualitative analyses. Access to quarterly and annual scenario updates, along with the analysts behind the forecasts, ensures you can:

  • Develop a dynamic and resilient long-term energy strategy
  • Test specific decisions against alternative futures
  • Monitor potential changes in global trends and scenario paths
  • Identify opportunities for strategic advantage

Multi-Client Study: $30-$130 Scenarios for the Global Oil Market to 2020
Download (PDF)

Global Scenarios Framework/Deliverables

The IHS Global Scenarios Framework helps organizations prepare for an uncertain future by positing three distinct outlooks for the global energy industry. Each scenario provides qualitative and quantitative analyses of economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment and energy resources on the world stage to 2030. Clients receive access to these scenarios with quarterly and annual updates.

Rivalry Scenario ("IHS Planning Case")

Increased Competition in Energy and Geopolitics
Under the Rivalry Scenario, increasing global competition for political and economic power, and growing rivalry among energy sources, drives fundamental shifts in the fuels and technologies used in transportation and electric power generation, leading to:

  • A growing rivalry among energy sources that contributes to oil losing its grip on transportation
  • “Pollution Paradox” – countries grow richer, consume more energy and then address pollution
  • A loss of strategic advantage among major powers
Vertigo Scenario

The World Loses Its Sense of Stability and Balance
Under the Vertigo Scenario, a volatile future erupts in which frequent economic and financial tremors and ongoing technological advances cause political and social dislocations and instability, leading to:

  • A loss of investor confidence and perennially risk-averse market environment
  • Faster, deeper innovation and creative destruction in the global economy than the world’s ability to adjust
  • Energy supply investment that often lags behind the market causing price volatility
Autonomy Scenario

Technology and Society Drive Fundamental Change
Under the Autonomy Scenario, a powerful combination of market and social forces helps to push technology, policy and consumer behavior in ways that fundamentally transform the global energy system, leading to:

  • Technological step-change advances that dramatically increase on-site power supply/electricity access worldwide
  • Growing supplies of domestically based energy sources
  • Generational shifts in consumer attitudes and behavior
Deliverables

Online Access to all Service Datasets/Reports and Phone Access to IHS Research Staff

IHS Global Scenarios Report and Macroeconomic Dataset

Quarterly Updates
Scenario Signposts and Key Data Elements (5-year outlooks for select fuels prices/GDP growth rates for the world, major regions and select countries)

Biannual Global Energy Watch
Integrated view from across IHS of key energy issues

Annual Updates
Includes summary report/slide deck explaining key drivers and changes in annual dataset update for these concepts:

  • Population and GDP
  • Primary Energy
  • Oil and Natural Gas
  • Coal
  • Electric Power
  • CO2
  • Upstream Oil/Gas Capital Cost
  • Key indicators (labor productivity, exchange rates, interest rates, trade, savings rates, etc.)

Access the Collective Insight of IHS

Long-Term Planning and Energy Scenarios draws from the combined insight, analytics and expertise across IHS:

Energy
Critical knowledge and independent analysis of energy markets, industry trends and strategy

Economics and Country Risk
Economic and financial analysis, forecasting and market intelligence on countries and industries

Company and Transaction Research
Independent research focusing on valuation, strategy and performance measurement of energy companies worldwide

Aerospace, Defense and Security
Global information for the defense, national security, public safety, law enforcement and transport sectors

Maritime
The leading source of information and insight for the maritime industry


Coverage

 Global Scenarios FrameworkEnergy Scenarios

Data

Scope: global, high-level regional, sector, and major country

  • CO2 Prices
  • Crude Oil Prices
  • Population
  • Macroeconomic Data

Scope: global, in-depth regional, sector, major country, and key benchmark prices

  • Crude Oil/Product Markets
  • Natural Gas Markets
  • Coal Markets
  • Electric Power Markets
  • CAPEX Investment
  • CO2 Prices/ Emissions
Analysis

Scope: global, high-level regional, sector, and major country

  • Geopolitics/Security
  • Environment/Climate Change Policy
  • Trade Policy
  • Demographics
  • Macroeconomics
  • Technology
  • Energy

Scope: global, in-depth regional, sector, and major country

  • Global Trends
  • Energy Supply/ Demand (by sector/ region)
  • CO2 Emissions
  • Capital Expenditures/Costs
  • Strategic Implications

How Can Your Organization Benefit?

  • Create an economic, energy, and political outlook for your annual planning or budget exercise
  • Develop alternative strategies or mitigation plans to prepare for unforeseen changes in the business environment
  • Monitor scenario signposts for “early warning” indicators about potential shifts to an alternative scenario
  • Become more flexible in thinking about the future and more attentive to “weak signals”
  • Avoid the paralysis that can result--in the face of uncertainty and conflicting data—with a single forecast
  • Develop a common language for internally discussing the future
  • Helps organizations to better communicate possible business environment changes to stakeholders
  • Create robust, flexible strategies that will withstand dramatically different market conditions
  • Identify unforeseen risks of entering a new sector or changing strategic direction
  • Harness the collective insight and capabilities of IHS in a cost-effective format
  • Benchmark strategic assumptions
  • Follow global long-term megatrends that impact your organization's future
  • Complement existing macroeconomic forecasts by identifying game changers
  • Enhance competitive edge by recognizing early signposts that call for strategic review
  • Factor qualitative and quantitative variables into your planning

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