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Long-term Planning and Scenarios

Position yourself for success in times of global uncertainty

Do you need to anticipate long-term global and regional impact on demand and production?

Available for both light vehicles and medium/heavy commercial vehicles, these scenarios provide narratives and associated quantitative analyses that outline potential futures for the automotive industry over a 25 year forecast horizon. With insight on how macroeconomics, geopolitics, government policy, and trends in energy effect growth, environmental policies, trade, security, consumer choice, and technology, you can:

  • Anticipate consumer, businesses and government actions
  • Test specific decisions against alternative futures
  • Set contingency plans under widely varying conditions
  • Grasp the effect of regional development on demand/production
  • Develop long-term business strategies

What’s Included

At the heart of the service are three distinct scenarios. Each scenario provides a narrative and associated quantitative analyses for the next 25 years.

Scenario Types

Rivalry
Our base case scenario: Increased competition in energy and geopolitics

Autonomy
Technology and society drive fundamental change

Vertigo
World loses its sense of stability and balance

Issues
  • Impact of wealth in emerging economies
  • Carbon emission targets and fallout
  • Shifts from high debt to sustainable debt
  • Transformation to a low-carbon energy future
  • Alternative fuels/vehicles’ impact on security
  • Impact poor urban air quality and worsening congestion has on policy, vehicle sales, and consumer choice
Related Products

The Long-Term Planning and Scenarios Service complements our 7- and 12-year Sales, Production and Powertrain Forecasts

How will cities and cars adapt to changing motorization trends?

City motorization peaks when urbanization rates reach 80%, but congestion is just one of many factors that could affect future mobility trends.

Click sections below to explore current trends.

Industry Success Stories

Events


Follow the Automotive Blog

Dec 06

German passenger car sales rise by a robust 9.4% y/y in November

The German passenger car market continued on a good upward tick in November, helped by a positive calendar effect. IHS Markit perspective Implications: The German passenger car market posted a very robust uplift of 9.4% y/y in November to 302,636 units, according to the latest set of data from the German Federal Motor Transport ag..more

Dec 04

GM plans 300-mile-plus-range EVs on new platform

Top General Motors (GM) executives have set out the automaker's plans for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) as well as autonomous vehicles, speaking to investors at an event on 30 November. This article discusses BEVs and a later report will discuss autonomous vehicles. IHS Markit perspective Implications: GM is well on the way to developing a new..more

Dec 01

IHS Markit observations and commentary ahead of Lamborghini Urus launch

The Lamborghini Urus expected to launch on Monday (4 December) will be the Italian supercar brand’s long-awaited entry in to the luxury crossover segment. Although this is not a category the brand is known for its involvement in, other brands have gained significant benefits from expanding in to this previously non-traditional..more

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