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Long-term Planning and Scenarios

Position yourself for success in times of global uncertainty

Do you need to anticipate long-term global and regional impact on demand and production?

Available for both light vehicles and medium/heavy commercial vehicles, these scenarios provide narratives and associated quantitative analyses that outline potential futures for the automotive industry over a 25 year forecast horizon. With insight on how macroeconomics, geopolitics, government policy, and trends in energy effect growth, environmental policies, trade, security, consumer choice, and technology, you can:

  • Anticipate consumer, businesses and government actions
  • Test specific decisions against alternative futures
  • Set contingency plans under widely varying conditions
  • Grasp the effect of regional development on demand/production
  • Develop long-term business strategies

What’s Included

At the heart of the service are three distinct scenarios. Each scenario provides a narrative and associated quantitative analyses for the next 25 years.

Scenario Types

Rivalry
Our base case scenario: Increased competition in energy and geopolitics

Autonomy
Technology and society drive fundamental change

Vertigo
World loses its sense of stability and balance

Issues
  • Impact of wealth in emerging economies
  • Carbon emission targets and fallout
  • Shifts from high debt to sustainable debt
  • Transformation to a low-carbon energy future
  • Alternative fuels/vehicles’ impact on security
  • Impact poor urban air quality and worsening congestion has on policy, vehicle sales, and consumer choice
Related Products

The Long-Term Planning and Scenarios Service complements our 7- and 12-year Sales, Production and Powertrain Forecasts

How will cities and cars adapt to changing motorization trends?

City motorization peaks when urbanization rates reach 80%, but congestion is just one of many factors that could affect future mobility trends.

Click sections below to explore current trends.

Industry Success Stories

Events


Follow the IHS Automotive Blog

Mar 27

Bangkok Motor Show 2017: Many models to debut as market shows growth prospects

This year's Bangkok Motor Show, beginning on 29 March, will feature several new model launches as Japanese automakers compete for market share in Thailand by highlighting their capabilities. IHS Markit Perspective: Significance: Around 30 global automakers – including Japanese market leaders Toyota, Isuzu, and Honda ..more

Mar 24

Mazda looks to draw in new buyers with 2017 MX-5 RF

With the new 2017 Mazda MX-5 RF (Retractable Fastback), Mazda replaces the power-retractable hardtop (PHRT) with a coupé look and targa-style power roof designed to attract a new set of buyers to the model line. The RF has a USD2,700 price premium over the soft-top convertible in a similar grade level. IHS Markit Perspective: Significance: For..more

Mar 23

New York Auto Show 2017: Toyota updates Sienna, Yaris

Toyota has announced two key product reveals scheduled for the New York Auto Show ahead of the event, raising the technology levels of the Sienna and Yaris in the later stages of their lifecycles. IHS Markit Perspective: Significance: At the New York Auto Show in April, Toyota will introduce minor updates for the 2018-model-year Sienna miniv..more

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