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Long-term Planning and Scenarios

Position yourself for success in times of global uncertainty

Do you need to anticipate long-term global and regional impact on demand and production?

Available for both light vehicles and medium/heavy commercial vehicles, these scenarios provide narratives and associated quantitative analyses that outline potential futures for the automotive industry over a 25 year forecast horizon. With insight on how macroeconomics, geopolitics, government policy, and trends in energy effect growth, environmental policies, trade, security, consumer choice, and technology, you can:

  • Anticipate consumer, businesses and government actions
  • Test specific decisions against alternative futures
  • Set contingency plans under widely varying conditions
  • Grasp the effect of regional development on demand/production
  • Develop long-term business strategies

What’s Included

At the heart of the service are three distinct scenarios. Each scenario provides a narrative and associated quantitative analyses for the next 25 years.

Scenario Types

Rivalry
Our base case scenario: Increased competition in energy and geopolitics

Autonomy
Technology and society drive fundamental change

Vertigo
World loses its sense of stability and balance

Issues
  • Impact of wealth in emerging economies
  • Carbon emission targets and fallout
  • Shifts from high debt to sustainable debt
  • Transformation to a low-carbon energy future
  • Alternative fuels/vehicles’ impact on security
  • Impact poor urban air quality and worsening congestion has on policy, vehicle sales, and consumer choice
Related Products

The Long-Term Planning and Scenarios Service complements our 7- and 12-year Sales, Production and Powertrain Forecasts

How will cities and cars adapt to changing motorization trends?

City motorization peaks when urbanization rates reach 80%, but congestion is just one of many factors that could affect future mobility trends.

Click sections below to explore current trends.

Industry Success Stories

Events


Follow the IHS Automotive Blog

Apr 25

Renault Group's global sales increase 14.3% y/y during March

Renault Group has released data showing a gain in its global sales of 14.3% y/y during March, helping it to maintain a double-digit percentage gain during the first quarter. IHS Markit Perspective: Significance: Renault Group has released data showing a gain in its global sales of 14.3% y/y during March. Implications: This has helped..more

Apr 24

China's market production rises 7.99% y/y in Q1 as OEMs push new models

Automakers have introduced a number of new features to existing models in an attempt to gain market traction in China, while local automakers are gaining share from launches of new models. IHS Markit Perspective: Significance: Chinese automotive brands are pushing their presence in the country's market by bringing in more n..more

Apr 21

Shanghai Motor Show 2017: Citroën shows C5 Aircross

Citroën has chosen the Shanghai Motor Show (China) to reveal its new C5 Aircross compact SUV, which will underline the future direction of the brand. IHS Markit Perspective: Significance: Citroën has chosen the Shanghai Motor Show to reveal its new C5 Aircross compact SUV. Implications: The new model has a number of features that underline th..more

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