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Cost Curve Service – Ammonia

Provides detailed production cost coverage for more than 527 Ammonia production units operating around the world today, as well as 69 new units expected to start up over the next five years.

Cost curves provide insight into which production technologies and feedstocks are cost advantageous, the degree of the advantage and how this is expected to change over time. Find out which are the lowest-cost regions, countries and plants, both today and in the future. Identify the marginal producing location and how this affects pricing. Understand how the shape of the cost curve affects overall and regional profitability for this key building block of the chemical industry.

Capital investments in Ammonia production units in recent years have focused on Middle Eastern countries, due to advantaged feedstock costs, or areas such as China with rapid demand growth. The current and planned development of numerous shale gas fields in the United States is forecast to supply extremely cost-competitive feedstocks compared to most other regions, so global producers are again considering North America as an investment option because of the favorable feedstock position and the stable investment environment.

The Cost Curve Service – Ammonia analyzes each of the world’s production facilities, building up cost based on the technology and feedstock slate, estimated feedstock cost and by-product credit value, utility consumption and other variable and plant fixed costs. Plant size and operating rates are all taken into account.

The cost curve covers all of the key processes for producing ammonia, including:

  • Conventional
  • Coal-based

Any person, company or government interested in producing or purchasing ammonia, or designing or constructing ammonia plants, should be aware of the competitive positions within the global Ammonia industry. IHS Chemical, utilizing its extensive databases, models and expertise, has prepared the Cost Curve Service to address this need.


The deliverable is an interactive Excel spreadsheet that will allow the user to toggle and create key graphs and tables:

  • Global curves for current year, future year five years out and one historical year for reference
  • Charts showing costs by year for world and 10 geographic regions, broken down by net feedstock cost, variable costs and fixed costs.
  • Regional averages and all individual plants for any given region plotted on the curve
  • Breakdown of capacity by process type for world and ten geographic regions
  • Cost summary tables showing number of production units, total capacity, average capacity, with total cash cost broken down into feedstock cost, co-product credit, net feedstock cost, variable cost, fixed costs, for world and each of ten geographic regions

The service will include an Executive Overview, summarizing the key findings from the analysis:

  • Regional cost structure is included along with production cost economics for major technologies
  • Capacity data by unit is included for all years covered in the analysis
  • The Cost Curve Service will be updated twice a year on same schedule as the IHS Chemical World Analysis - Ammonia, typically in the late fall and very early spring

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