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April 2017 Forecast Highlights
Near-Term Economic Outlook
Leading to the upcoming general election in September 2017, Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left SPD with its candidate Martin Schulz are competing for voters' support in order to form a new coalition government. Regardless of the final composition of the new administration, the right-wing anti-immigration AfD will not be part of a governing coalition as all other major parties have ruled out working with it. Germany is exposed to a high risk of mainly low-capability terrorist attacks by lone actors or small cells who sympathize with non-state armed groups such as the Islamic State. In addition, the risk of far right and far left protests is likely to remain high in the coming months.
A note on our risk ratings: IHS Markit derives country risk ratings for 206 countries, based on six separate ratings in each country: political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security with 22 detailed sub-aggregate risks. These ratings allow you to quantify risk with greater specificity with a scoring system based on a 0.1-10 logarithmic scale. Seven risk bands, from low to extreme, allow you to compare and contrast risk between countries and regions.
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