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IHS Maritime & Trade Freight Rate Forecast

Find stability in a volatile market

Is your business positioned to take advantage of the market cycle today and tomorrow? Do you need help strengthening your balance sheet for trying times ahead?

The Freight Rate Forecast is an online tool that lets you visualize short-term (monthly) and medium-term (5-year) freight rates. Designed to support market investment decisions and deliver competitive intelligence, the forecast goes beyond conventional market analysis by integrating Big Data analysis techniques with proprietary IHS maritime and adjacent industry data, information and expertise. The model can predict how crude oil dynamics, as well as multiple drivers outside of the shipping space, will impact freight rates – and thus potential earnings – with up to 99% accuracy.

Maritime, energy, financial and insurance professionals use the forecast to:

  • Strengthen the balance sheet by boosting earnings and decreasing costs
  • Maximize fleet utilization and avoid surplus shipyard capacity
  • Form a granular understanding of market behavior, patterns and relative influences
  • Gain investor and banker confidence
  • Optimize trades, investments, negotiations and chartering decisions
  • Hedge exposures in spot market

Learn how the Freight Rate Forecast can help you anchor your business in a fast-changing market.

Capabilities

  • User-friendly searching: Filter forecast by origin, destination, commodity, size class, month, year
  • Forecast analysis: Download PDFs and PPTs of forecast-based analysis, prepared by IHS Maritime & Trade expert analysts, editors and research teams
  • Market data and news feed: Find shipping prices, market data, real-time news, insight articles
  • Monthly overview: See next month’s top route by size class
  • Chart selector: Choose chart type and display value (e.g., column, US$)
  • Interactive data grid: Click into data grid to automatically update charts above; filter data grid by origin, destination, route code, size class, value type and monthly values
  • Interactive map: Search route map – which shows next month’s routes by size class – and click on ship icons to display route value
  • Export options: Download forecast data to CSV file
  • Key driver graphs: Visualize the main variables that influence the fleet capacity forecast
  • Automatic updates: Receive quarterly data refreshes
  • Learn more: Link to forecast PDFs to learn more about methodology, user guide, key drivers

Methodology

The Freight Rate Forecast integrates key variables that influence freight rates. Using maritime and connected industry data sets only available from IHS, we dynamically model freight rates from year to year as a function of ship and tanker availability, oil market fundamentals, macroeconomic developments, financial markets and trends. The table below provides an overview of some key drivers used for the Freight Rate Modelling.

Economic FactorsSupply FactorsFinancial FactorsIndustry Factors
  • Industrial Production
  • Wholesale Production Prices
  • Retail Prices
  • Ship Availability
  • Ship Utilization
  • Bond Yields
  • Short-Term Interest Rates
  • Long-Term Interest Rates
  • Exchange Rates
  • Commodity Prices
  • Production
  • Consumption

Make sure you’re using the most accurate information for your most expensive decisions

In the example on the right, you can see how the Freight Rate Forecast for the VLCC class size transporting MEG from Japan compared to actual results. Forecast accuracy by month was 96% and by year was 99%.

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