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In Defence Industry 20YY’s downloadable report, Jane’s researchers and experts identify five emerging disruptive forces and megatrends expected to reshape the global defence landscape in the immediate and long term future. Three distinct high-level scenarios are also identified in which these emerging forces and trends intersect with existing defence markets. The report covers:
Test your assumptions about the future of the global defence industry and examine the types of risks, disruptions, opportunities and challenges that are on or just over the horizon. Our qualitative, strategic-level framework scenarios each isolate and explore a dominant driver shaping the future of the global defence industry.
Driver: Tiers of new competitors will enter the export market en force in the early to mid 2020s complicating an already savagely competitive market
Impact: Established providers will need to rethink strategies/business models and weigh difficult decisions over whether to compete, collaborate or combine with new competitors
Driver: Fast-paced asymmetric technology innovation will meet rapidly shifting end-user requirements
Impact: Return to the “promise and peril” model of technology development will put pressure on industry’s model for innovation and end-users’ capacity to partner with industry, growing tendency towards “big bets” on specific technologies
Driver: Western-led frameworks dominating global geopolitical, economic, security since the end of World War II will transition to a new order that coheres over the next 20 years
Impact: Shifting geo-political alliances and eroding economic, security, governance and geopolitical institutions and frameworks will create new pressure on the global defence industry
Four benefits of scenario planning as a component of strategic planning
The Defence Industry 20YY Study will provide two core deliverables:
The Defence Industry 20YY study is being led by Jane’s Strategic Assessment and Futures Studies (SAFS) Centre. The SAFS Centre’s mission is to help clients in the global defence industry and defence and security communities around the world better cope with uncertainty, complexity and competition through the implementation of alternative analysis tools such as:
The Senior Director of the SAFS Centre, Tate Nurkin, is Research Lead for Defence Industry 20YY. Tate worked closely with subject matter experts from Jane’s Defence Industry and Budgets team as well as subject matter experts in military capabilities, geopolitics, threat analysis and other relevant topics. Expertise was also leveraged from the wider IHS Markit organization including Technology, Economics and Country Risk, Energy and Maritime and Trade, giving you access to expertise that you simply cannot find elsewhere.
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