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Elisabeth Waelbroeck Rocha, Chief International Economist, IHS Economics
In the United Kingdom, post-Brexit uncertainty continues. Recent indicators show the economy has been fairly resilient to the Brexit vote, but there are many political and economic landmines. Although little information on the UK strategy is filtering out in the run-up to the formal start of negotiations, three key themes will dominate the discussions: immigration, trade, and the European passport for financial services. The outcome of the negotiations will have far-reaching implications for the UK economy, but also for Europe. Possible outcomes for the United Kingdom and Europe will be reviewed.
Carlos Caicedo, Senior Principal Analyst, IHS Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting
Is the worst over for Brazil? We expect a gradual return to political stability with a clear pro-business agenda, which largely explains the strong performance of the stock exchange; the appreciation of the real, and the sharp drop in sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, the negatives weigh heavily: the severe economic crisis poses significant non-payment risk at a sovereign and sub-sovereign level, and security fears, including escalating labour unrest, pose supply chain disruption risks. These are some of the topics Carlos Caicedo will cover as part of a comprehensive outlook for the country.