IHS Global Economics and Country Risk Conference
Wednesday, Apr 13, 2016
- 8:40 amProspects for Sustained Economic Growth Amidst Stress in the Emerging World and Rising Geopolitical Risks
Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS
What are the prospects for global growth at time when China's outlook is increasingly fragile and when risks of conflict in the Middle East have risen substantially? Hear Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh discuss the global economic outlook, covering the US and major global regions.
- 9:40 amEurope Navigating Against Strong Headwinds Once More
Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Chief International Economist, IHS
Simon Smiles, Chief Investment Officer-UHNW, UBS
Although the European economy continued to post encouraging results at the end of 2015, the growth slowdown in China and many emerging markets, as well as rising concerns over the security situation, may once more delay the recovery of employment and investment. The 23 June UK referendum on European Union membership is another destabilizing force, with wide-ranging implications for the United Kingdom and Europe. A number of factors still support European growth: competitive exchange rates, low energy prices, more relaxed fiscal policy stances, and accommodative monetary policies. How will these factors play out in 2016-18, how much worse could the situation become, and what might be the consequences of a “Brexit”?
- 10:50 amMiddle East and North Africa: Political, Economic, and Security Challenges in the Low Oil Price Environment
Firas Abi-Ali, Head of MENA Country Risk and Forecasting
Bryan Plamondon, Director, IHS Economics
Middle East and North African (MENA) economies face another year of challenging conditions, with global oil prices sliding lower to start 2016. Regional oil exporters will not have the benefit of a sharp recovery in prices, and will need to address internal and external imbalances from reduced income through fiscal adjustment and reforms. How will these economies cope? We will examine the outlook for key economies, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, highlighting strengths and vulnerabilities amid the low oil price environment.
From a geopolitical perspective, the growing involvement of the sponsors of regional proxy wars raises the risk of direct incidents between them. We will examine these risks, as well as escalation and de-escalation pathways. Meanwhile, the Islamic State continues its expansion into North Africa, increasing risks further in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia. We will examine the role of insurgency in Egypt and its threat to an economic recovery that stabilises President Sisi’s rule, as well as the potential consequences.
- 1:20 pmWinners and Losers in the Wake of Commodity Fallout
Katie Tamblin, Director, Supply Chain Solutions, Economics and Country Risk
Dramatic declines in commodity prices have put intense revenue pressure on companies in the energy and natural resources sectors. Conversely, producers in the intermediate and finished goods sectors have felt the benefit of a lower cost environment, and those benefits continue to ripple throughout the global supply chain. Slack demand and oversupply will prevent material rebounds from achieving significant progress across most commodities in the first half of 2016, but geopolitical risk and exchange-rate gyrations will mean some feel the benefit to a greater degree than others. Join us for this session in which we'll explore the impact of a low inflation environment and outline the victims and benefactors of today's low cost industrial marketplace.
- 2:15 pmBeyond the Headlines: China's Slowdown against the backdrop of its structural transition
Brian Jackson, Senior Economist, IHS Economics and Country Risk
China's once indomitable economy is struggling, facing enormous cyclical headwinds and structural problems. The Chinese government, therefore, has to contend with the daunting challenge of balancing stable near-term economic growth and long-term structural reforms. How China sails through these troubled waters will have lasting consequences. This session assesses China's industrial and service-sector performance, reform progress and challenges, and impacts on the outlook.
- 3:15 pmWhich Countries Remain Attractive for Foreign Direct Investment?
Flemming Jensen, Chief Economist, Volvo Car Corporation
Sara Johnson, Senior Director, IHS Economics
Rajiv Biswas, Senior Director and Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Economics and Country Risk
With the Chinese economy slowing down and many emerging market commodity exporters facing economic challenges, where are the new global growth hotspots?
- Which countries are the new hubs for global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows?
- How is Chinese outbound investment shaping the Asian FDI landscape?
- What are the potential impacts of China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank?
- Where are the new growth opportunities in Emerging Europe, the Middle East, and Africa?
- With Brazil in recession and Venezuela in crisis, where are the new growth hubs in Latin America?
- With China slowing and commodity prices weak, which industry sectors are winners in the new global economic landscape?