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Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS Markit
The political earthquakes of 2016 have upended conventional thinking about the global economy and have—ironically—brightened the outlook. The expectation that the Trump administration will enact sizeable fiscal stimulus has increased optimism about US and global growth. This, in turn, has pushed US stock indexes to record highs while pushing up both interest rates (with a resulting rout in the bond market) and the dollar. A stronger dollar is mostly good news for Europe and Japan, but bad news for emerging markets. IHS Markit believes the balance of these trends will be moderately positive for global growth, which is expected to increase from 2.5% in 2016 to 2.8% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. Unfortunately, political and policy uncertainties (and risks) are higher now than a year ago. The rise of anti-globalization movements in the United States and Europe could result in policies that hurt growth. In particular, a trade war could push the US and global economies into recession. On the other hand, business-friendly policies (including lower corporate taxes and a rollback of regulation) could boost both short-term and long-term growth. Based on statements by President Trump, his advisors, and Congressional leaders, IHS Markit believes the latter scenario is more likely than the former.
Elisabeth Waelbroeck Rocha, Chief International Economist, IHS Markit
Dr. Klaus-Jürgen GERN, Senior Manager for Global Economy, Country Analysis, and Raw Materials, Kiel Institute
Europe’s growth remains weak, and prospects are clouded by Brexit, fears of protectionism, mounting populism, adverse demographics, and risks of political instability following key upcoming elections. Given the public and private debt situation and limited room for manoeuvre of monetary policies, can Europe’s growth be accelerated by targeted supply-side policies, and what could be the trigger of such policy shift?
Sara Johnson, Senior Research Director, Global Economics, IHS Markit
Gus Ando, Senior Director, Life Sciences, IHS Markit
Brian Lawson, Senior Consultant, IHS Markit
Michael Stoppard, Chief Strategist, Global Gas, IHS Markit
President Donald Trump and the Republican-led 115th Congress will bring far-reaching changes in US policies. Shared priorities include repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, personal and corporate tax reforms, and a lightening of regulatory burdens in financial services, energy, and other sectors. There is less agreement on trade and immigration policies. This session will assess the scope and timing of potential policy changes and the implications for US and global growth, trade flows, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit
Ben Orhan, Senior Economist, IHS Markit
Survey data are increasingly being used to monitor macro and microeconomic trends, with PMI surveys at the vanguard of its application to monetary policy, investment allocation, and corporate planning. This session gives background insight into the history and methodology of the PMIs and reveals the latest survey findings, delving into detailed sector trends and highlighting growth, employment, and inflation signals. With inflation at the front of investors’ minds, we also look at the signals from new indicators of commodity price and supply trends.
Brian Jackson, Principal Economist, IHS Markit
China's economy faces numerous structural and cyclical challenges in 2017, most imminently a housing market correction and rising sentiments of protectionism abroad. It simultaneously has a wide range of reforms scheduled for more aggressive implementation, such as national property taxes and supply-side reform in heavy industry. How will China attempt to balance stable growth with risk management and continued reform in the year(s) ahead?
Lilit Gevorgyan, Senior Economist, European Economics, IHS Markit
Alex Kokcharov, Principal Analyst, Europe Country Risk, IHS Markit
President Vladimir Putin’s key objective in 2017 will be to mobilise public support for another six-year term in office in an election likely to be held in March 2018. Given domestic economic constraints, he will likely pursue this through assertive foreign policy and military engagements in Ukraine, Syria, and Russia’s western frontiers, such as the Baltics. The business environment in the country will be impacted by external events as well, including potential changes in bilateral relations with the United States and the outcomes of elections in the Netherlands, France, and Germany, which have the potential to significantly alter the sanctions outlook.
Firas Abi Ali, Director, MENA Country Risk, IHS Markit
US policy in the Middle East is currently characterized by strategic incoherence. Within the Trump administration there is division over policymaking between traditional conservatives and ideologues. This forces the administration to engage in a strategic review of its position in the Middle East, the outcome of which may determine border changes, the future of the relationship with Iraq and Iran, as well as the manner in which the United States pursues the fight against political Islam. This will change political and violent risks in Iraq’s Kurdistan and oil-rich southern provinces, and will impact traditional allies like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Nathalie Wlodarczyk, Senior Director, Consulting, IHS Markit
Planning is often for the coming year, assuming current dynamics and trends play forward in a fairly linear fashion. Over the course of a decade, this is rarely how things play out. Our Geopolitics in 2027 project tests assumptions about drivers of change, critical pivot points, and the geopolitical impacts that follow. In this session, we will share our three core scenarios designed to test and challenge long-term strategic planning and examine the key drivers and pathways that would get us there. What should strategic planners be considering, and how do you plan effectively for the coming decade in a politically turbulent world?