How will the new US administration impact the global economy?
In this four-page report, Dr. Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, and Sara Johnson, Senior Research Director of Global Economics, both IHS Markit, predict the international impact of Trump’s presidency will depend on whether the incoming administration engages in “protectionist populism” or “pro-growth populism” during the next four years. If the US government pursues protectionist policies, growth in global trade and real GDP will likely be slower and inflation will probably be higher—in other words, stagflation could occur. If the administration pursues more pragmatic and pro-growth policies, then economic growth, inflation, and interest rates will all be higher—an outcome that will benefit most but not all economies around the world. Based on recent statements by President Trump and his advisors, IHS Markit believes the latter scenario is more likely than the former.
Download the full report now.