IHS 全球情境分析

IHS 全球情境分析凝聚了 IHS 的洞见和专业知识，通过检验未来几年塑造世界的主要力量帮助企业准备好迎接未来。IHS 全球情境分析的核心是由三种截然不同的情境组成的情境系列，称为 IHS 全球情境分析框架。每个方案都提供了一个定性描述（或背景介绍）以及定量分析，研究到 2030 年为止，世界舞台上经济增长和策略、政治、贸易、安全、科技、环境和能源资源可能面临的种种未来。

全球情境分析框架是我们的 和行业情境分析咨询服务的基石，涵盖：

• 能源
• 汽车

这些咨询服务研究在每个方案的环境下，行业将如何发展。各个行业的预测包括定量数据集、关键趋势的定性描述和对组织的意义。

通过每个季度的持续更新，IHS 全球情境分析服务能帮助高级经理和战略规划师：

• 制定战略
• 针对多变未来检验特定的决策是否正确
• 监控标志性的成果
• 识别具有战略优势的机会

• Will major powers cooperate to enhance global prosperity, or will co-operation fail?
• How quickly and to what degree will the world shift to a low-carbon economy?
• How successful will major powers be in avoiding a reoccurrence of economic turbulence and a weakening of the global economy in the coming decade and beyond?

Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment and energy resources on the world stage to 2030.

Global Redesign: The IHS Planning Case

• Anxious transition
  • From G8 to G20
  • From high debt to sustainable debt in developed economies
  • From little greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limits to more
  • From fragmented efforts to slow nuclear proliferation to more effective cooperation
  • From young to old populations
• Cooperation on security, but only after confronted with the abyss of hyper-nuclear proliferation
• Pragmatic deal making on global GHG emissions policy
• Shift in economic and political power to emerging markets, particularly in Asia

Metamorphosis

• Innovation sparks the beginning of a transformation to a low-carbon energy future
• Transformation slows economic growth early, then accelerates it late in the scenario period
• The great irony: a lower carbon economy, but less secure because of nuclear proliferation
• Effective limits on GHG are only achieved by a group of like-minded countries; no effective global scheme

Vortex

• A second global economic crisis occurs just a few years after the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009
• Confidence in global markets wanes
• Political instability grows
• Fear and uncertainty force leaders to become more insular and less interested in global cooperation on environmental and economic issues
• Long slowdown in global economic growth

IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service
A multi-client study and a quarterly updated advisory service providing an ongoing qualitative narrative and quantitative analyses of the automotive industry in the context of the IHS Global Scenarios Framework. Learn More

IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service
A multi-client study and a quarterly updated advisory service providing an ongoing qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses of the energy industry in the context of the IHS Global Scenarios Framework. Learn More

IHS 全球情境分析包含来自 IHS CERA、IHS Global Insight、IHS Herold、IHS Jane's 和 IHS Fairplay 专家们的贡献，也包含外部专家的贡献。IHS 方案团队使用跨学科方法为全球商界所面临的主要问题和挑战提供了广泛而深入的认识。

项目总监

• James Burkhard，IHS CERA 总经理

• Daniel Yergin，IHS CERA 主席
• Nariman Behravesh，IHS 首席经济学家

• David Hobbs，IHS CERA
• Joseph Kasputys，IHS Global Insight
• Lawrence Makovich，IHS CERA
• Kevin Raby，IHS
• James Rosenfield，IHS CERA

• Niklas Bengtsson，IHS Fairplay
• Thomas Biracree，IHS Fairplay
• William Edgar，IHS Jane's
• Robrt Gillon，IHS Herold
• Tate Nurkin, IHS Jane's
• Zbyszko Tabernacki，IHS Global Insight

• Webinar 重放：IHS 全球情境分析—在您的战略规划中如何使用替代性未来（2010 年 7 月 8 日）
• 视频重放：剖析不确定性—从方案到战略（2010 年 3 月 10 日）
• 下载 IHS CERA 能源情境分析咨询服务手册 (pdf)
• 下载 IHS Automotive 情境分析咨询服务手册 (pdf)
• 下载 IHS 全球情境分析框架报告手册 (pdf)