US Economic Forecasts and Analysis

Our award-winning US economic forecasts and analysis give you a complete, accurate view of the US economic outlook to support your strategic business decisions.

Our intricate US macro model encompasses nearly 2,000 economic, financial, and business concepts and more than 1,500 equations that track every conceivable economic activity. We equip you with the independent, fact-based analysis you need to make important decisions and plan for the future.

A Comprehensive View of the US Economic Outook

US Economic Services bring award-winning accuracy to our highly detailed 10- and 30-year US economic forecasts. Our research team is comprised of experienced econometric modelers, financial analysts, and industry experts. We develop, maintain, and refine our highly complex modeling systems to incorporate the latest forecasting techniques, industry developments, and international factors.

Our suite of US Economic Services include:

US Economic Executive Service
- Monthly US economic summaries
- Quarterly webcasts
US Economic Service: Long-Term
- 30-year forecast and analysis for key macro concepts, updated quarterly
- Three alternate scenarios
- Quarterly webcasts
US Financial Service
- Weekly financial markets summaries and reviews
- Monthly five-year financial forecast
US Macro Model
- Access to our US macro model for conducting "what if" exercises
Global Data Products
- Multiple tools for accessing our database, including direct data feeds to your in-house applications
Executive Strategy Council
- Quarterly discussions among corporate executives, concerning global scenarios that add value to your strategic planning process
- Access to global scenario model for conducting "what if" exercises

Who uses US Economic Services?	How?
Manufacturers	Benchmark company generated sales and revenue projections (often by product) against a consistent accurate forecast of overall growth potential
Service providers	Monitor and quantify key aspects of the economy that drive their business and gauge the health of consumers or business segments
Government agencies	Evaluate the economic impact of various policy measures
Financial institutions	Assess the growth of the economy by sector as part of overall portfolio analysis exercise

Benefits:

US Economic Services enable you to:

Assess market demand for maximum return on investment dollars
Manage assets more effectively
Identify growth markets and key drivers for sales, revenue, and product forecasts
Assess potential impact of new and changed policies
Conduct "what if" exercises based on alternate US or global scenarios
Analyze changes in economic developments, markets, and risks
Track key data releases

Features:
- US Executive Summary
  - Our monthly report with our US economic forecast, including:
    A concise description of the forecast and its key drivers
    Commentary on main issues pertinent to the forecast
    A recap of any forecast changes
    Our forecast assumptions
    Highlights of recent events that have influenced the overall direction of the economy
    "Forecast at a Glance": graphic depiction of the forecast's general direction, including five-year forecast of key economic indicators
    Two alternative forecast scenarios with summary tables
  - Accessible through MyInsight, our client-access website, and in hard copy
- Quarterly webcast invitations
- Timely "flash" commentary
  - Client recap of forecast highlights immediately after monthly forecast release, prior to the more detailed US Executive Summary
  - Delivered through client website, MyInsight
- US Executive Summary tables
  - Historical and forecast data tables in Excel format
- Economic Data Commentary:
  - Incisive analysis of all major US data releases, surveys, and Federal Reserve events, focusing on:
    Implications for US economy
    Potential impact on IHS forecasts
  - Updated within hours
- Customized email alerts on breaking developments

US Economic Service: Short-Term Services

Features:
- US Economic Outlook:
  - Delivered via our client-access website, MyInsight, or in hard copy
  - 10-year quarterly forecasts
  - Updated monthly
  - Analysis of all economic sectors
  - Alternative scenarios and risks
  - A review of the global context
  - Access to our senior-level US macro and industry economists
- Products and services common to both Short-Term and Long-Term Forecast Services (see below)
US Economic Service: Long-Term Services

Features:
- The US Economy—30-Year Focus:
  - Delivered via our client-access website MyInsight, or in hard copy
  - 30-year forecasts, presented with four scenarios:
    Trend
    Cyclical
    Optimistic
    Pessimistic
  - Semi-annual updates
  - Coverage of key macro concepts: output, inflation, and unemployment
  - Inclusion of disaggregate variables, such as production and employment by industry, for use in your planning models
  - Interim update of the "core" components of the trend scenario (excluding detailed industry and employment projections) in the two alternate quarters
- Products and services common to both Short- and Long-Term Forecast Service (see below)
Both Short-Term and Long-Term Forecast Service Subscriptions Feature the Following

Common Features:
- US Executive Summary
  - Monthly newsletter with our US economic forecast, delivered through MyInsight, our client-access website, or in hard copy
- Forecast Coverage
- Quarterly Webcast Invitations
- Economic Data Commentary:
  - Incisive analysis of all major US data releases, surveys, and Federal Reserve events, updated within hours, focusing on:
    Implications for US economy
    Potential impact on IHS forecasts
- Customized email alerts on breaking developments
- Forecast databases
  - Accessible through a variety of formats, including our powerful browser-based DataInsight-Web, downloadable spreadsheets, and other software packages

Features:
- Economic analysis and forecasts from a financial perspective, focusing on:
  - Federal Reserve policy
  - Near-term economic and inflation trends
  - Equity markets
  - Credit markets
  - Depositary institutions
  - Treasury yield curve
  - Money and capital markets rates
  - Mortgage rates
  - Cost of funds
  - Consumer rates
- Financial Weekly
  - Delivered through our client website, MyInsight
  - Summary of financial market events
  - Review of the past week's data releases
  - Forward glance at the next week's data releases, including our forecasts of these indicators
- US Financial Monthly
  - Delivered through MyInsight, or in hard-copy
  - Five-year, monthly interest rates projection
  - High and low interest rate scenarios
  - Credit picture review
- Updates of IHS Global Insight's US Cycle Monitor:
  - Recession barometer
  - Growth indicator index
- US Executive Summary
  - Monthly newsletter with our US economic forecast, delivered through MyInsight, our client-access website, or in hard copy
- Customizable email alerts on breaking developments
- Economic Data Commentary
  - Incisive analysis of all major US data releases, surveys, and Federal Reserve events, updated within hours, focusing on:
    Implications for US economy
    Potential impact on IHS forecasts

Features:
- Quarterly model that serves as the core of our economic services:
  - Enables you to construct alternative scenarios
  - Covers approximately 2000 economic, financial, and business concepts and indexes
  - Accurately measures changes in the economy's composition, with over 1500 equations tracking different economic activities
  - Operates on short-run aggregate demand while constrained by long-run aggregate supply (labor, capital stock, productivity)
  - Includes monthly updates of our 10-year forecast
  - Includes semi-annual updates of our 30-year forecast
IHS Global Insight Forecast Coverage

Indicators covered in both Short-Term (10-year) and Long-Term (30-year) Forecast Models:
- Composition of real GDP in detail and nominal GDP
- Consumer spending by detailed sector
- Business investment (equipment and software) by detailed sector
- Business investment (structures) by detailed sector
- Inventory accumulation by sector
- Housing and construction (including housing starts, sales, prices, and affordability)
- Government spending (federal, state, and local)
- Exports and imports (major goods and service categories)
- Prices and wages, including:
  - Producer prices by major commodity
  - Consumer price aggregates
  - Detailed national income accounts price indexes
- Financial market indicators:
  - Treasury yield curve
  - Other short- and long-term rates
  - Money aggregates
  - Credit aggregates
  - Mortgage loans
  - Stock market index
  - Earnings
  - Cost of funds
- Energy prices, production and usage
- Industrial production by sector
- Balance of payments account by major category, international investment position
- Employment by sector
- GDP, GNP, national income, and its distribution
- Personal income in detail: corporate profits
- Household wealth, debt and financial obligations
- Federal, state and local budget balances
- Vehicle sales, stocks and prices

Global Data Products

Features:
- A variety of applications for accessing our database, including:
  - DataInsight-Web
    Advanced browser-based application for category and keyword search, providing data retrieval, manipulation and display in a Web environment
  - DataInsight
    Comprehensive navigation, time-series analysis, and graphing application
  - World Market Monitor
    Powerful desktop graphics and report-writing application covering a broad set of indicators for more than 250 countries and regions in 200 currencies
  - Data Feeds
    Flexible data-delivery solution, feeding your in-house applications with customized formats, including XML and metadata categorization, using sophisticated messaging and tracking systems
Executive Strategy Council

Features:
- Our premium interactive, advisory service involving senior corporate planning and strategy executives in quarterly discussions on global conditions that add value to your strategic planning process, with the following added products and services:
  - Customized scenario assessments: application of our Global Scenario Model to your specific company
  - Priority access to experts
  - Quick response analyses: clients can request an urgent analysis of a given event's impact on their business
  - Early warning alerts: clients receive advanced notification of emerging risks and opportunities
  - Global Scenario Model: clients have the option of running their own scenarios using our model
Global Scenario Model
Features:
- Detailed economic variables covering the world's 15 largest countries
- Representation of the remaining world countries, aggregated into seven separate regions
- Quick assessments of the effects of major economic change - such as a sharp rise in oil prices, major currency revaluation, or trade restriction and liberalization measures - on individual businesses
- Availability to clients for separate use as an analytical tool