Consumption Levels of Water and Power in YRD Cause Concern

The Context

Unseasonably high temperatures along the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region have boosted consumption of both electricity and water, causing alarm in the minds of some local officials that the region is returning to its "wasteful" pattern of consumption. Power and water officials have not expressed any worries about the supply capacity of the YRD's utility system, although local media report an increasing number of "secret worries" among observers that consumption patterns along the YRD are trending towards the "acute disease" of wasteful consumption and shortages that plagued the region during mid-2005.

Oh, the Pleasure of Uninterrupted Air Conditioning

In mid-August, the Shanghai Power Grid Company reported a new record for peak load demand, as total load on the system reached 19.2 million MW, easily surpassing the 18.8 million MW level seen in mid-July, which was also a new historical record. High-end summer temperatures have also driven up water consumption; in mid-August, daily consumption in Shanghai surpassed 10.0 million cubic metres (cu. m), just short of the "danger line" of 10.96 million cu. m. Similar trends have been reported for the other 15 cities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces that make up the YRD grouping, and with the experience of last year's power shortages (and the disregard that led up to them) in mind, critics are calling on regional authorities to "repair the house before it rains". For all the regions concerned, this includes calls for pre-emptive efforts by producers to avoid peak power demand periods, and enterprise and residential consumers alike are reportedly watching to make sure that municipal governments throughout the YRD take appropriate steps in advance of a repeat of 2005.

Power

An anonymous official with the Shanghai Power Company has told the local media that although load demand on the eastern power grid has reached new highs during August, in regional terms, new highs for load demand have occurred at different times, allowing the grid to balance overall demand. This would seem to beg the question of what would happen if the constituent regions of either the YRD or the entire eastern grid created new highs for load demand simultaneously.

Overall rates of power consumption along the YRD are notably higher than the levels seen during 2005, with peak load demand increasing by around 2.5 million KW in Shanghai and around 5.1 million KW in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In response to rising temperatures and levels of demand, authorities along the YRD have looked for voluntary steps by industrial producers, such as the rearrangement of production schedules to avoid peak demand periods, and have even gone so far as to install special electricity consumption monitoring devices at especially large consumers of power, to gauge overall demand conditions. However, isolated power shortages have been reported in some of the cities that make up the YRD, and although peak demand levels throughout the region have not converged at the same time, to cause system-wide shortages, it appears that the power system supporting the region is running close to its limit. With the potential for sustained high temperatures through the middle of September relatively low, power officials in the YRD are reportedly breathing a little easier than they were just a few days or weeks ago, although a combination of local media, researchers and responsible power authorities appear—for the time being at least—to be making sure that advance preparations are made for the next peak load demand cycle.

Water

Although rates of water consumption among urban residents and industrial users continue to rise along the YRD, the adequacy of water supplies does not appear to be nearly as pressing an issue as the supply of power. Shanghai has issued calls for conservation on the part of residential consumers, and has issued modest tariff increases over the past year, while reserve levels in both Jiangsu and Zhejiang appear to be adequate to eliminate the need for special measures. As mentioned above, daily water consumption in Shanghai reached new highs during the hottest periods of August, which prompted the municipal water management office to issue new measures to ensure the secure supply of water. These included new procedures for inspecting and monitoring the water facilities and infrastructure of regional producers, to prevent wasteful practices. Levels of daily water demand in Shanghai above the 10 million cu. m mark put a large degree of strain on the municipality's water distribution and management systems, and in order to ease the potential risks of such a phenomenon, the YRD is developing an integrated water piping and distribution system, to balance supply by redirecting flows from four major water installations. Many cities along the YRD now rely on supplies from neighbouring areas within Zhejiang and Jiangsu, and while this is not a problem per se, it means that the water distribution system will become a lifeline of sorts for many cities, as rates of urbanisation and urban water demand continue to increase.

Outlook and Implications

With high rates of economic growth forecast for the near future, researchers and policymakers along the YRD appear to be building high-demand-growth scenarios into their expectations for power, water and even coal demand. Officials appear confident that they will be able to meet the 20% reduction targets for the level of energy and water resources consumed per unit of GDP over the coming five-year period. However, this measure should not be mistaken for overall per capita demand levels, which will continue to rise, as will totals of just about anything that can be measured in tons or Watts.