Niger Delta Militants Attack Shell Convoy, Kill Nigerian Soldiers

Militants Return to the Niger Delta

Militants using speed boats in the Niger Delta attacked a Shell convoy being accompanied by a military escort in the Cawthorne Channel. The ambush killed at least five soldiers, according to most media reports, but Agence France-Presse claimed 14 soldiers died. Upstream quoted Army spokesman Sagir Musa as saying: "[a]bout 17 militants attacked our soldiers. The militants came in several boats. They succeeded in sinking two of our boats with soldiers inside”.

It has now emerged that about 20 Nigerian workers employed by a Shell contractor were abducted at around the same time as the attack on the Shell convoy. A Shell source has confirmed that the workers are still missing.

The silence from the militants was broken yesterday (2 October) when an email was sent to the international media by Cynthia Whyte spokesperson for the Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC)—a coalition of militant groups (see Nigeria: 2 October 2006:Militants Threaten to Recommence Hostage-Taking, Sabotage in Niger Delta). Whyte said that the JRC would be prepared to recommence its militant activities, adding that: "if [the JRC is] forced to take hostages, they shall merely be serving the purpose of human shields and will never be used as bargaining tools". The JRC’s email as usual demanded the release of Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, the militant leader currently gaoled on federal treason charges.

MEND Threat of "Terrible Times"

MEND, which must be considered the most organised of the militant groups, quickly issued a response to the attack. In an email to Global Insight, MEND's spokesman Jomo Gbomo denied any involvement in the attack on the Nigerian military in Rivers State. However, Gbomo did say that: "[n]evertheless, MEND salutes the courage of all who stand and fight in the name of the liberation of the Niger Delta. Oil companies and those wishing to invest in the Delta must be warned that there has been no progress in the resolution of the Niger Delta dispute as, to date, the Nigerian government has not fulfilled our demands, which must be met in [their] entirety".

This is the first communication from MEND for many weeks and it points to a closer working relationship with other Niger Delta militant groups and a continued dissatisfaction with the Federal Government in the capital Abuja. It appears that while MEND was not involved in the ambush in Cawthorne Channel they are prepared to return to militant action at any point.

Jomo Gbomo also warned oil companies operating in the Niger Delta that they should be prepared for "terrible times, which will come upon them very suddenly". MEND is known for its strong statements; earlier in the year, the organisation warned that it will “execute all staff and workers found in previously attacked locations” (see Nigeria: 19 May 2006: MEND Sends Ominous Warning to Shell).

Outlook and Implications

The attack in the Cawthorne Channel is the first violent incident in over a month and, after the warnings from Whyte and Gbomo, it appears that violence will return to the Niger Delta for the foreseeable future. This new round of violence is likely to lead to even more uncertainty in Nigeria’s oil sector. Last month Nigeria's oil unions the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (Pengassan) and the Union of Petroleum & Natural Gas Workers (Nupeng) called a strike to issue a warning to the Federal Government about the intolerable security situation in the Niger Delta (see Nigeria: 13 September 2006: Double Blow in Nigeria as Oil Unions Strike Amid Production Shut-in Chaos). The oil unions could easily decide to strike again, which would have a serious effect on Nigeria's crude production.

It is not yet known whether yesterday’s attack will have any impact on Nigeria's production capacity—the country is currently shutting-in 872,000 b/d of crude (over 30% of its production capacity), most of which is shut-in on a long-term basis and might not come back until after next April's presidential elections. The return of violence in the Delta could lead to further facilities being sabotaged by the militant organisations, which could result in an even greater amount of crude being shut-in (see Nigeria: 12 September 2006: Oil Minister Raises Official Shut-In Estimates to 872, 000 b/d in Nigeria). The attack on Shell is another blow for the company that itself is responsible for half the total amount of crude being shut-in. Shell's Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer has admitted that the company will need a new strategy to address the deteriorating security situation in Nigeria, but there has been no word on when this new strategy will be launched (see Nigeria: 16 May 2006: Shell to Consider New Strategy to Combat Deteriorating Security Situation in Nigeria).

The renewed threat of expatriate oil workers being kidnapped is likely to alarm the government in Abuja as well as the oil companies operating in the Niger Delta. A series of kidnappings occurred in the last few months, but recently this had stopped. Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo warned hostage-taking in the Niger Delta would not be tolerated and has taken up a policy of fighting fire with fire (see Nigeria: 16 August 2006:President Promises Crackdown on Niger Delta Kidnappers). If the kidnapping chaos in the Delta does restart it might lead to more firms deciding that acceptable risk levels exceed the opportunities of doing business in Nigeria at the current time (see Nigeria: 14 August 2006: Tip of the Iceberg? Companies Start to Exit Nigeria Because of Delta Kidnapping Chaos).