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Same-Day Analysis

Election 2008: Angola's Landmark Polling Day Arrives

Published: 9/5/2008

Angola goes to the polls today in the country’s first election in 16 years.

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Angola's 8.3 million voting population has been called upon to vote in the country's first election for 16 years. Voters will choose from a list of over 5,000 candidates to sit in the unicameral legislature for a term of four years.

Implications

In theory, this election presents an opportunity for the voting population to express its political will, but so far the process has been marred by reports of maladministration and the late opening of polling stations.

Outlook

The fear is that the election will be reduced to little more than a rubber-stamping process because the campaign has been so heavily dominated by the ruling MPLA. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if the opposition manages to increase its representation in parliament. The results are to be announced within 10 days.

D-Day

Today (5 September) is the day that the Angolan voting population finally gets to express its political will through the ballot box—a democratic right that voters have been deprived of for 16 years. The 8.3 million voting population has been called to vote in 12,000 polling stations across the country, monitored by observer missions from the European Union (EU), the United States, the Pan-African Parliament and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Some 5,198 candidates are vying for a seat in the nation’s 220-seat unicameral legislature to serve for a term of four years in a process that will re-legitimise the country’s political sphere.

This is just the second time in Angola’s post-independence history that voters have been given the chance to exercise political choice through the ballot box. The last was in 1992, but that election ended inconclusively as the result was openly rejected by the leading opposition party, sparking a resumption of the protracted 27-year civil conflict. While there has arguably been an air of trepidation surrounding today’s election in light of what happened 16 years ago, there are some marked contextual differences this time around that suggest the improbability that this poll will be overshadowed by widespread conflict in the same way as in 1992. Then, the rebel movement that rose up against the ruling party was not fully disarmed when election time rolled around, which is not the situation today—the civil conflict ended in 2002 and since then Angola has seen relative peace.

Chaotic Start

Nevertheless, reports so far suggest that the election process is in chaos. Just hours into the scheduled opening of the polling stations, the head of the EU observer mission has called the operation “a disaster”. Speaking to Agence France-Presse, Luisa Morgantini said, "What we have seen in the three polling stations we have visited in Luanda is a disaster. They have not started voting yet. They did not prepare." Polling stations were due to open at 07:00 local time, but according to Morgantini some of the polling stations still had not opened by 08:30. The necessary equipment was not set up yesterday as expected, but rather this morning at 06:00 and, according to what has been observed thus far, some polling centres are even without a voter list. A spokesman for the electoral commission, Adao de Almeida, pre-empted this, commenting in an interview that “the problem that worries us the most is that logistics staff will be in place to deliver election material …Our country is too big and there are still some locations that are not easily accessible,' Bloomberg reports. According to recent reports, it appears that the problem of logistics has been accentuated in the capital, Luanda, where 21% of the 8.3 million voters resides.

Ten parties and four coalitions will be contesting the legislative polls, but the show is likely to be dominated by the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), which has been in power since 1975, led by veteran President Eduardo Dos Santos (see Angola: 4 September 2008: Election 2008: Defining Moment in Angola's Democratisation Process as Polls Loom). There have been suggestions from the opposition of widespread irregularities during the campaign season, with the MPLA having been accused of repression and of benefiting from donations from the state bank—claims that the MPLA vehemently refutes (see Angola: 3 September 2008: Election 2008: Angola's Main Opposition Party Accuses State Bank of Funding Ruling Party Campaign). According to electoral law, campaigning should only begin 30 days prior to the polls, but in practice the MPLA has been campaigning for far longer—by as much as up to six months—by holding large public parades and festivals. The leader of the opposition Uniao Nacional para a Independencia Total de Angola (UNITA), Isaias Samakuva, said in an interview yesterday that "this campaign was very unbalanced”. While provisions had been made for US$17 million to be shared among each of the parties equally for their campaigns, the opposition has complained that the funds were not disbursed on time and that, even when the money was distributed, it was insufficient to enable them to campaign on a level playing field alongside the MPLA. The state very much controls the only national daily newspaper, Jornal de Angola, as well as the sole non-satellite Angolan Public Television (TPA), and in the months running up to the polls news features have been strongly biased in favour of the MPLA. Radio Despertar, a private radio station known for airing oppositionist views, was suspended by the authorities, ostensibly for breaching its transmission licence, thereby silencing one of the main vectors for presenting opposition viewpoints during the campaign season (see Angola: 28 August 2008: Election 2008: Human Rights Abuses in Spotlight as Angolan Legislative Contest Looms).

Outlook and Implications

In theory, today's election presents an opportunity for the political scene to be re-legitimised by giving power to the people to determine who will govern them. From this angle, the vote is significant because at the very least it represents a departure from a string of failed government promises by repeatedly postponed the polling date. It also ushers in a way to entrench democracy in the country as the population becomes more sensitised to political processes, which in turn will spur on civil society and foster a culture of reciprocity, in which the government becomes accountable to the electorate in return for political capital.

However, on the flip side, the fear is that the election will be reduced to little more than a rubber-stamping process. That the MPLA will triumph is not really up for debate: its biased electoral campaign, repression of oppositionists, carrot-and-stick tactics, and the most useful propaganda tool of all—the double-digit growth that the country has been experiencing under the party’s leadership—will undoubtedly take care of that. For a country that is reaping the rewards of high oil prices, the government has not been without sufficient funding to ensure that the electoral process passes off smoothly. Thus, the reports so far to suggest the contrary make a mockery of the democratisation process. That said, it remains to be seen exactly how polling day will end in the south-west African nation as opposition parties clamour for greater representation in parliament and as Angolans hope for a more peaceful post-election scenario than was the case 16 years ago.
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