PM Resigns as Dispute with Nepal's Army Comes to a Head

Prachanda's National Address

Prachanda announced his resignation in a live broadcast on national television. He openly blamed the president for the outcome, arguing that the interim constitution did not give the president the right to "act as a parallel power". The PM described the president's veto as "an attack on this infant democracy and peace process" and suggested that he was stepping down to protect "democracy and peace". At this stage, it is unclear whether the Maoists will attempt to retain their position in government. Prachanda's resignation suggests not, and the party has the slimmest of parliamentary majorities after a couple of coalition partners left the administration over the weekend in protest at the cabinet's decision regarding Katawal. Some observers have argued that Prachanda's decision is something of a face-saving move, with the weekend's events fundamentally weakening the Maoist party and threatening the government's downfall. As such, Prachanda's resignation negates such a messy end to what has been a short and disappointing period in office for the former guerrillas.

What Precipitated the Crisis?

A feud between the government and army is at the centre of events. At its most basic this is a question of whether former Maoist guerrillas should be integrated into the 100,000-strong Nepal Army. The Maoists have been pushing for this as a solution, but this has been resisted by army elements, with Katawal particularly opposed to the concept on the grounds that the former guerrillas are "politically-indoctrinated". The frustration over this point has manifested itself in a number of events in recent months, ranging from the seemingly trivial, such as the army's refusal to participate in the country's national games tournament because they would have to play opposite former Maoist fighters, to the far more serious. Most notably, the government accused the army of breaking the terms of the peace agreement by recruiting new personnel. This was denied, with the army's commanders arguing that they were merely filling posts that had become vacant as a result of retirement. In response, the Maoists' former military arm, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), began its own recruitment campaign creating further hostilities. More recently, these hostilities have played out in a number of dismissals, the most recent being that of Katawal. President Yadav however vetoed this, calling on the general to remain in his post.

What Next?

In the immediate term, attention is focused on the security situation. It is feared that these events will prompt tensions between rival political party supporters. As a result, the army has been deployed to the streets of the capital, Kathmandu, in an attempt to ensure order. It is also possible that former Maoist cadres will take action. Many are currently housed in camps, and have become increasingly frustrated with the general lack of progress to determine their future. Previously, there have been mass walkouts from these camps, and now that the Maoists look set to leave office, the outlook for these individuals becomes even less certain. More generally, given the poor law and order situation in Nepal, there are many elements who may now seek to capitalise on fresh political unrest. The Maoists' student wing has been particularly problematic, frequently accused of violent acts, and as such, given the situation, potentially on the brink of increasing its activities. Politically, the parties can be expected to jockey for power. A coalition government is the only outcome, probably populated by the main opposition parties. The Nepali Congress (NC), which has been working hard to destabilise the government since its inception, is the most likely candidate as coalition head. Its chances are boosted by the fact that it has strong ties with President Yadav.

Outlook and Implications

Scenarios

At this stage the situation is fluid, with a number of different outcomes possible. Among these are the following:

The Maoists Leave Office: Although the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) has a parliamentary majority, it is slim. It relies on coalition allies to bolster its numbers. If the coalition now collapses, this is likely to force a parliamentary vote. If the CPN does not have sufficient numbers, it can no longer govern. A less messy scenario would see the Maoists opt to leave office and sit on the opposition benches. Notably, observers are not suggesting that the CPN will leave the political sphere.

The President Backtracks: It remains entirely possible that President Yadav will review his decision. In local news reports issued yesterday, the president's line was conciliatory as he urged political consensus and the adherence to the interim constitution. With the threat of the government's fall, it may make the Maoist-led coalition stronger. A number of parties have criticised the president's decision, and may now rally around the Maoists in a bid to ensure that they remain in office.

A Military Coup: This remains a remotely outside possibility. It comes onto the radar because the army is at the centre of this dispute. Nepal has no history of military coups, but this reflects the fact that the military has historically been under the monarch's control and patronage, and the monarch has been in full control of the political sphere. One issue that may arise, and would serve to complicate the political sphere further, is quiet intervention by the former monarch, King Gyanendra. At this stage, there is no sense that the monarchy is poised to return to political life, but political instability provides Gyanendra and his supporters with the opportunity to unsettle and exert influence over the political sphere.