Belligerent North Korea Conducts Nuclear Test to Worldwide Condemnation

Going for Broke

Global intelligence data confirmed a statement by the North Korean state news agency that an underground nuclear test had been carried out in the reclusive Stalinist state. South Korean officials and the U.S. Geological Survey independently verified that a seismic tremor consistent with a controlled explosion had been detected in the north-east of the country close to the town of Kilju at 00.54 (GMT). The epicentre of the quake, equivalent to 4.7 points in magnitude on the Richter scale, was located 10 kilometres underground. The region was the site of North Korea’s first nuclear test in October 2006.

Unconfirmed reports also indicated that three short-range ballistic missiles were also fired immediately after the nuclear test. A maritime warning was issued on Friday banning ships from a 130-kilometre (80-mile) radius from the town of Kimchaek, according to Japan’s Coast Guard. The ground-to-air missiles are believed to have a range of around 80 miles.

The test has provoked international condemnation. In a statement issued early Monday, President Barack Obama called the action a "violation of international law" in defying the UN Security Council while defining North Korea’s arms build-up as constituting a direct threat to international peace and stability. The South Korean government placed its military forces on heightened alert and convened its crisis management team, denouncing the test as an act of "intolerable provocation". The local stock market lost 4.0% as news of the detonation broke. Japan, into whose airspace a ballistic missile was test fired in April, also condemned the action. The UN Security Council is due to convene later today to discuss the issue.

Outlook and Implications

Technological Advancement

Concern has been exacerbated by the apparent step-up in North Korea’s technical capability. The original nuclear test on 9 October 2006 was deemed a relative failure, with crude technology and low-intensity. Russian authorities estimated the force of Monday’s blast, which if proven multiplies in scale the 0.8 kiloton detonation in 2006. Over the past three decades North Korea has developed an autonomous missile-production infrastructure that relies on limited external technological transfers.

U.S. military intelligence estimates that North Korea has around 800 road-launchable missiles in its inventory including 200 Nodong-type missiles with the capability to strike the Japanese capital Tokyo. An intermediate-range missile dubbed the "Musadan" was unveiled in 2007. As yet untested, the missile has the range in theory to hit targets in Guam, Hawaii, and the Alaskan coast. The main constraint on North Korea’s weapons programme has been the failure to date to successfully downscale a nuclear warhead package to arm a ballistic missile, although chemical and biological warheads could be carried in theory. The simultaneous nuclear test and the firing of the ballistic missiles symbolically delineate the threat posed by North Korea’s weapons programme to the stability of North-East Asia as its technical expertise grows.

More Aggressive Stance

The detonation of the device also defines a more aggressive stance in North Korea’s brinkmanship. In February 2007, a breakthrough was made after North Korea agreed to shutdown its main Yongbyon nuclear facility in return for fuel aid followed by full disclosure of its military assets in June 2008. Relations with the South also improved as former president Roh Moo-hyun pursued the "Sunshine" policy of progressive economic and political engagement. The United States removed North Korea from its list of states sponsoring terrorism in October 2008. However, since the end of 2008, Pyongyang’s co-operation in a demilitarisation programme has broken down. The shift to a more bellicose approach was cemented in April 2008 with the firing of a ballistic missile that prompted the UN Security Council to issue a statement calling for North Korea to comply with its 2006 resolution banning missile tests.

Inter-Korean relations have chilled since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took power in February 2008. Lee’s policy of "flexible reciprocity", in which aid is linked to progress on the disarmament issue, was interpreted as blackmail by the North Korean regime. Since then, North Korea has taken an increasingly hard-line stance towards the South, calling for an "all-out confrontational posture", threatening to shut down the joint Kaesong industrial complex, and announcing that it has nullified all agreements relating to its Western sea border.

Any hopes harboured in Pyongyang that transition of power in the United States to the Obama administration might result in a change in policy have been categorically scotched. President Obama has maintained a hardline stance on the issue of denuclearisation and reiterated the government’s commitment to the six-party framework, thwarting attempts by Pyongyang to circumvent South Korea and Japan to deal directly with Washington. North Korea slowed work to dismantle its nuclear programme after the United States suspended energy aid. Tensions have been further accentuated by the pending trial in North Korea of two American journalists on charges of spying. The Obama administration has attempted to revive the diplomatic process with North Korea, recognising the risks of its growing isolation. However, the test appeared timed to coincide with the arrival of the U.S. special representative on North Korea, Stephen W. Bosworth, in the South Korean capital Seoul on the first leg of a tour aimed at re-opening dialogue.

Internal Stresses

Internal stress could also be motivating the escalation of the North Korean leadership’s brinkmanship. Hardline factions are believed to again be in the ascendancy within the communist party’s machinery; re-asserting the party’s enshrined principle of "Juche", or self-reliance. The economy is in a state of profound dysfunction, with illicit arms traffic and smuggling the country’s only source of foreign-exchange earnings. The party’s leader Kim Jong-il also appears to be manoeuvring to re-impose his authority on the regime after being briefly incapacitated by a stroke in August 2008. The ongoing succession issue is providing a test of his authority as he moves to anoint one of his three sons as official heir-apparent. The test could be an attempt to win the support of military and hardline factions to ensure an eventual uncontested transition of power.