Regional Policy Under Scrutiny as U.S. President Tours Middle East

Managing Expectations

President Barack Obama arrived in Cairo today to deliver a keynote speech in which he is expected to expand on his previous attempts to "reach out" to the Arab and Muslim world. The stop in Cairo came after a whirlwind visit to Saudi Arabia yesterday where Obama met King Abdullah. The latter was asked to help the United States attain two key goals: rebuilding America’s image in the Muslim world and resuscitating the ailing Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Obama's address to the Cairo University today has generated great anticipation and there is a danger that it will fail to live up to the high expectations. He will need to communicate optimism and hope while remaining sanguine about the chances of early breakthroughs. Something which is under particular scrutiny is Obama's evolving relationship with Israel. He has previously stated that he will defend the countries' intimate alliance, but has lately indicated that he expects more in return. The administration is taking a firmer line on Israeli settlement expansion and has pointedly underlined the need to create a viable Palestinian state. This has raised hopes that the United States will become a more even-handed player in the region, but Obama has made it clear that policy shift will not be dramatic. It remains to be seen just how hard the new administration is willing to push for the creation of a viable Palestinian state. The issue of the administration’s approach to democratisation in the Arab world will also be under the spotlight. This was a key theme for previous president George W. Bush, but Obama has backed away from this mantra. This has drawn criticism from democracy advocates and dissidents in the region. The choice of Egypt as the location for his keynote speech is controversial in this context given criticism of its government's authoritarian tendencies. Democratic principles are undoubtedly important to Obama, but it seems he is prioritising pragmatic alliance-building in a bid to make progress where his predecessor failed.

Regional Challenges: Iran and Iraq

The question of how Obama will deal with Iran is critical for the region and any comments he makes on this topic will be intently scrutinised. The choice of Saudi Arabia as the first stop was undoubtedly influenced by Obama's desire to press that country's government for help in his Iranian efforts. He has quickly come to recognise that his much-vaunted conciliatory approach will not necessarily produce reciprocal gestures. Since coming to power, Obama has reached out to Iran in an unprecedented manner, breaking with the damaging approach of his predecessor. The overtures have included repeated statements verifying that the United States would be willing to engage with Iran on the question of its nuclear programme without any preconditions, dropping a strictly belligerent tone in addressing the Islamic Republic, a historic televised address to the Iranian people and its leadership, a brief meeting and chat between two top diplomats in March, and most recently a reported decision to lift a diplomatic ban which has seen Iranian representatives barred from invitations to events held at U.S. embassies across the world.

The clear absence of reciprocity from Iran goes to show that much more will have to be done to break out of a three-decade diplomatic quagmire which has sucked the two sides progressively further into the mud. In Iran Obama is up against deeply entrenched antipathy and mistrust which has effectively become a cornerstone in the Islamic Revolution’s foreign policy. Without a much-needed reciprocal gesture, Obama will have to counter the potential nuclear threat from Iran perhaps eventually with a retort to harsher terms or to the threat of force. Pressured not only by Israel but also by moderate Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Obama has nevertheless placed Iran high on the priority list. His speech in Cairo today is expected to provide some assurances that the United States will remain as the ultimate protector against a nuclear Iran. But keeping the talk of force as a last resort, Obama has also pursued a multi-pronged approach which has taken into consideration regional dynamics, reaching out to Iran’s long-time ally Syria and possibly even encouraging Saudi Arabia to take a more conciliatory approach to Damascus, and in so doing hoping to corner Iran further towards dialogue or at the very least gaining the good-will of the greater part of the Arab world.

Meanwhile, the much-hailed security turn-around in Iraq where U.S. military forces are preparing to draw down their presence significantly, is by no means secured. Iraq’s Sunni insurgents have in recent months proved that their operational capacity should not be underestimated. The recent upturn in what appears to be al-Qaida instigated attacks have led some to speculate that Baghdad may ask U.S. forces to remain in some Iraqi cities beyond the end of June deadline. Furthermore, although security forces have rooted out the worst sectarian warfare, limitations on the Iraqi government’s spending capacity and ability to sustain the ever-growing security forces poses a security risk in itself. Certainly, a combination of issues could set back the U.S. agenda in Iraq somewhat, signalling to Obama that a strict withdrawal deadline may need to be made more flexible leaving scope for unexpected turns and developments.

Outlook and Implications

Around the world, Obama is riding a wave of goodwill, and he needs to make sure he capitalises on it while it lasts. In the Middle East he may be popular personally, but there is still strongly entrenched resentment of the United States and mistrust of its motives. This has impeded its efforts to bring the parties together and build effective regional alliances. Obama has recognised this and is wisely pursuing an ambitious public-relations campaign. He has also made some bold overtures to hostile governments in the region. This is not enough on its own, however, given the intransigence of many of the players. It will require skilful use of a carrot-and-stick approach to engineer progress. Obama has started to create some space between the United States and Israel, but he is treading a very delicate line here, well-aware of the domestic political perils of pushing too far.