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Same-Day Analysis
Embattled Somali Government Declares State of Emergency
Published: 6/23/2009
IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Sharif-led and internationally backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has been struggling to hang on to power in recent weeks in the face of an increasingly violent insurgency being waged by radical Islamists. |
Implications | The embattled president has been forced to take drastic measures in an attempt to underline the seriousness of the security challenge his government is currently facing and to prompt the international community to offer military assistance. |
Outlook | However, there appears to be an extreme reluctance in the part of the international community, including neighbouring countries and friendly governments such as Ethiopia, to heed the TFG's desperate calls. This means that both the security and humanitarian situation will have to worsen considerably before anyone will aid the TFG. |
Following the recent deterioration in the security situation throughout Somalia, at a press conference in the capital Mogadishu yesterday, President Sheik Sharif Ahmed stated: "As of today, the country is under a state of emergency." The president said the government had decided to declare the emergency "after witnessing the intensifying violence across the country".
The move, which has already been endorsed by the cabinet but needs to be approved by parliament, follows the increasingly violent insurgency being waged by radical Islamist groups such as al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam in the past two weeks, which culminated in the murder of four senior government officials, including the country’s defence minister, Omar Hashi Aden, in the past week (see Somalia: 19 June 2009: Somali Government Minister Killed in Suicide Bombing).
Outlook and Implications
In theory, the state of emergency will allow the embattled TFG to rule the country by decree. However, given how little territory the interim administration currently controls, the general absence of law and order, and the lack of even the most basic service provision in areas the TFG currently commands, the move will not have much impact. This suggests that the decision to impose a state of emergency appears to be aimed at pressuring the international community into action. Sharif’s government in recent days has been appealing to the international community, especially the country’s immediate neighbours (Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Somalia) for urgent military assistance.
However, there appears to be extreme reluctance on the part of the international community, including Somalia’s neighbours, to heed the TFG’s desperate calls for a military assistance. This means that both the security and humanitarian situations will have to get considerably worse before anyone will step in to the TFG’s aid.
Under such circumstances, it appears that the TFG’s fate once again lies at the hands of Ethiopia, the only neighbour Somalia has with both the motivation and the means to intervene on its behalf in its battle with the Islamists.
Ethiopia, whose previous military intervention in Somalia back at the end of 2006 helped the TFG into power, withdrew its remaining troops from the country barely six months ago. There have repeated claims by local residents and eye witnesses that the neighbouring country has redeployed its troops in parts of Somalia in recent weeks in bid to check the momentum of the Islamist insurgents. However, the Ethiopian government has repeatedly denied the claims, insisting that any of its troops that may have crossed in Somalia are on "reconnaissance" missions, and continued to downplay the prospect of fresh military engagement in the neighbouring country (see Ethiopia - Somalia: 15 June 2009: Ethiopia Refutes Latest Reports of Military Incursions Into Somalia). Given the heavy price Ethiopia paid for its two-year military misadventure into Somalia—including in financial, political, and human terms—Ethiopia’s reluctance to get drawn into the never-ending Somalia crisis is understandable. However, the Ethiopian authorities, whose last intervention was prompted by their concern over the spread of radical Islamism and the presence of alleged international terrorists in Somalia, is becoming increasingly concerned by al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam’s growing strength and the presence of foreign jihadists in the country. This suggests that Ethiopia could yet make a fresh military intervention on the TFG’s behalf, provided that it receives the necessary political mandate and financial backing from the international community, a point alluded to by senior government spokesman Bereket Simon at the weekend. However, until such time, the TFG and its allied militias will have to resist the Islamist advance on their own while continuing to appeal for outside support.Most Viewed Articles
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