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Same-Day Analysis
Election 2009: Mid-Term Polls Likely to Shift Balance of Power in Argentina
Published: 6/26/2009
IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Argentines will cast their ballots in this weekend's mid-term legislative election to renew 129 of the 257-member lower house seats, and 24 of 72 senators; the vote has become a main challenge to President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her allies, battered by low popularity ratings. |
Implications | Observers have hailed the potential beginning of the end for Kirchnerism amid a predicted loss of majority in the lower house and several defeats in the provinces. Yet Kirchnerism nationwide is expected to remain the most important political force, thanks to the opposition's atomisation. With around 35% of the votes, the main battle will be waged in the capital where former president Néstor Kirchner has thrown all his weight to ensure a victory. |
Outlook | The Argentine election is expected to transform the balance of power and challenge power concentration and omnipotence enjoyed by the Kirchners over the last few years. This will create uncertainty over the form and content of future policy making beyond the December investiture ceremony; most importantly the Kirchners' leadership and authority could be undermined, facilitating expression of discontent, including social unrest. |
New Power Balance in the Making
The Kirchners have thrown in all they can in this legislative race amid political fatigue over their six-year long leadership, voters' ire at the impact of the economic crisis and general weariness at the executive's confrontational style. In the private sector, grievances have come to broaden from initial post-2001 crisis nationalisations, to the rural sector and the business class as a whole—on the back of interventionist and unorthodox economic policy, nationalisations, inflation-figure manipulation and more recently Venezuela's nationalisation wave affecting Argentine interests (see Argentina: 25 May 2009: Businesses Press Argentine Government to Interfere in Venezuelan Nationalisation). With President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's popularity rapidly declining, opportunistic alliances have collapsed in the provinces, weakening the government's local standing and nationwide controlling grip. Overall the electoral panorama is setting the stage for a watershed election for the "power couple"—incumbent President Fernández and her husband, former president Néstor Kirchner (2003-07). Polls point to a loss in congressional majority in the lower house, whilst in the Senate only a slim majority would be retained. Yet the appeal of the Kirchners to large segments of the population, in particular within the province of Buenos Aires itself, a bastion of Peronism, should not be underestimated.
Symbolic Win Crucial in the Province of Buenos Aires
Desperate attempts to win in the province of Buenos Aires—the largest electoral district, home to nearly 40% of registered voters—have prompted the controversial candidacy of Néstor Kirchner himself, for a lower house seat (see Argentina: 2 June 2009: Former President's Candidacy Validated in Argentina). His bid, however, is a dangerous gambit. Whilst he is likely to win a congressional seat per se, he may not emerge as the most popular choice. Coming second to arch enemy Francisco de Narváez (right-wing branch of Peronism, allied with conservative PRO), would deal a symbolic blow to the Kirchners' slender remnant of all-powerfulness and substantiate predictions of a collapse of "Kirchnerism". Coming first in the country's largest electoral district would however strengthen the ailing movement and convey a sense of resilience. At this stage both lists are in a technical tie, giving a true dimension of suspense to the provincial election. The government has resorted to multiple dubious tactics in the province and beyond in order to maximise electoral chances. The list is replete with mayors and other prominent pro-government figures who actually have no intention of taking up a legislative seat if elected. Their candidacies are mainly a vote-drawing exercise of dubious morality. Incumbent governor of the province Daniel Scioli is one of these "testimonial" runners, the Kirchners hoping that his popularity will convince hesitant voters. Yet should the list perform averagely in comparison with De Narváez's, his own political future will be at stake, in particular prospects of a 2011 presidential run will be in question.
Bitter Defeats Ahead
Stakes are running high in the province of Buenos Aires, yet this will not offset major battles in the interior of the country. In Mendoza, vice-president Julio Cobos, now firmly set in the opposition against his own government, is expected to secure a convincing win, propelling him as one potential presidential candidate in the 2011 vote. In Santa Fé, Kirchnerism is relegated to third position with Peronist dissident senator Carlos Reutemann vying for the majority of votes against incumbent governor socialist Hermes Binner. Both are hoping to consolidate their political standing there again with an eye set on 2011. Both Reutemann and Cobos turned their back to the Kirchners in the midst of rural protests, a clear evidence of the weight the mishandled conflict has played in undermining the incumbent administration. Other important districts are a close battle for the government, including the capital Buenos Aires itself. Still some victories are bound to be scored such as in Tucuman. The panorama becomes more complex if one takes into account the multiple local legislative elections taking place as well as divergent interpretations in the vote count which is bound to underpin the government or opposition analysis of the result: some pro-government candidates are running on an independent platform, Peronism as usual is atomised in various tendencies, local and national, embracing the whole of the political spectrum and blurring political boundaries.
Outlook and Implications
Bleaker Outlook for the Kirchners
It seems that the Kirchners will overall secure a victory in terms of vote count nationwide, though some victories and defeats will be subject to interpretation given the plurality of tendencies and party labels. Overall the opposition will actually garner more support nationwide yet its atomisation in rival parties and coalitions will continue to play in favour of the government, which will convert into a probable first minority political force. The most pivotal impact of the election is likely to be the loss of government control in the lower house casting uncertainty on policy making on the short to medium term. Given the couple's traditional ruling style, it would be unsurprising to witness some form of short-term radicalisation ahead of the swearing in of the new lawmakers in December. Beyond then, the logical path for the government will be to engage in consensual policy-making tactics, something both the incumbent and her predecessor have demonstrated little skills or interest in. The five-month transition could prove eventful, and poor results would be likely to further entice new defections at the provincial and national level. The efforts to convert the vote into an election in favour or against the government—and thus in favour or against state-led economic policy—could be quite damaging in terms of authority and leadership. In particular, a poor showing by Kirchner in the capital would also augur ill for their leadership over the Peronist party (PJ) and precipitate political instability. With added economic uncertainty envisaged in the second term, Argentina's short-term political trajectory will be turbulent.Most Viewed Articles
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