Political Turmoil in Honduras as Military Ousts President

Zelaya Out, Micheletti In

The Honduran military yesterday broke its pledge to respect the constitutional order and ousted President Manuel Zelaya. Just before dawn, some 200 troops surrounded the presidential residence and detained Zelaya, who was subsequently flown to Costa Rica, from where he travelled to Nicaragua. Only hours later, Congress removed Zelaya from office under the accusations of "apparent misconduct", "repeated violations of the constitution" and "disregard of orders and judgment of the institutions". A letter in which Zelaya purportedly tendered his resignation was read out in Congress, but Zelaya himself, speaking to the press in Costa Rica, subsequently denied the authenticity of that letter. Roberto Micheletti, the president of Congress and a political arch-enemy of Zelaya, was sworn in to head an interim government, which will serve out the rest of Zelaya’s presidential term, ending in January 2010. The move had apparently been co-ordinated with the Supreme Court, which said it had ordered the ouster of Zelaya in a bid to protect the law. Reportedly, at least eight cabinet members were detained alongside Zelaya, including Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas.

Directly after the coup, electricity supplies were cut and government radio and television channels went off air, but they resumed broadcasting later once the electricity came back on, according to press reports. Army planes and helicopters flew over Tegucigalpa, the capital, and there were reports of the military dispersing protests with tear gas, but observers on the ground describe the atmosphere as "tense calm". In one of his first official acts, interim president Michelletti also imposed a night-time curfew, in an effort to quell potential protests.

The coup came shortly before polling stations were due to open for a highly contentious popular consultation aimed at gauging public support for a possible constitutional change. In the non-binding consultation, the electorate would have been asked to vote on whether there should be a formal and binding referendum on calling a constitutional assembly alongside the November general elections. Congress and courts have long been up in arms against Zelaya’s constitutional referendum plans, which they suspect would pave the way for a second presidential term for Zelaya. Tensions mounted last week when Zelaya ousted the head of the army, General Romeo Vásquez, after his refusal to co-operate in the organisation of the consultation. In open defiance of the presidential decision, however, Vásquez was immediately restored by a Supreme Court judgment. With control over the army unclear and its troops deployed around strategic places on Thursday (25 June), this had sparked fears of a military-supported or -tolerated counter-coup (see Honduras: 26 June 2009: "Illegal" Popular Consultation Pitches Honduras Into Crisis).

International Indignation

International reaction to the coup was quick. Given the history of U.S. interventions in Central America, arguably the most important statement came from U.S. President Barack Obama, who called on the social and political actors "to respect democratic norms". In a similar vein, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned the action against Zelaya as a violation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. Predictably, support for Zelaya came also from his peers of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), a group of leftist leaders spearheaded by Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez. Characteristically bold, President Chávez said he had put his army on alert. He also promised to "bring down" the new Honduran government. Probably in reference to this statement, Obama cautioned that tensions and disputes must be "resolved peacefully" and without "outside interference".

Outlook and Implications

At this early stage, it remains unclear whether the military and its political allies can get away with the coup. The new interim president, Roberto Micheletti, has pledged to guarantee the general elections on 29 November and has promised to hold "a national dialogue", arguing, somewhat unconvincingly, that his coming to power had been the outcome of a "completely legal process". International pressure to restore Zelaya to the presidency will be rising, and domestic mobilisations against the coup have been announced. If it does manage to cling to power, the stance of the United States—the country's major trading partner—on the new regime will be pivotal. Rising political uncertainty is set to compound the economic downturn, raising the probability of social unrest, as old divisions have gained new salience since Zelaya’s constitutional reform plans were first voiced.