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Same-Day Analysis
European Passenger Car Sales Rise 11.2% on Lower Base and Scrapping Schemes
Published: 11/16/2009
IHS Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The ongoing positive effect of scrapping incentives across Europe and the lower base comparison with last year has helped passenger car sales across the continent to an 11.2% rise in October. |
Implications | Many major European markets were already experiencing significant declines as a result of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage influenced global credit crunch in October last year and this lower base comparison has helped October's double-digit increase. There was also a discrepancy between scrappage scheme-bolstered Western European markets and Eastern European markets, which generally recorded declines in October. |
Outlook | October's double-digit positive growth was good news for the European industry in the short term but the real test will come in the early months of 2010 when scrappage schemes in the major Western markets subside and lower base comparisons may not be enough to sustain year-on-year growth. |
Combined passenger car sales in Europe recorded a welcome boost of 11.2% year-on-year (y/y) in October to 1.26 million units, according to the latest data released by the Association of European Car Manufacturers (ACEA). The boost in sales was the result of the ongoing effect of scrappage schemes in major European markets and the lower base comparison recorded at the onset of the global downturn last October (see Europe: 14 November 2008: Car Sales in Europe Fall 15% Y/Y in September—ACEA). The October 2009 results were put in an even more positive light as a result of there being one fewer working day in October 2009 in comparison to the year before. For the first ten months of the year the year-to-date figure declined by 5.0% y/y to 12.86 million units, which is a robust result in the face of the global economic downturn and shows the influence of the various scrapping schemes on the overall market throughout 2009. The results for October were also boosted by the ongoing effect of scrappage schemes in major Western European markets such as Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. The German scheme, which has been by far the most successful of all the European scrappage schemes, has exhausted the 5 billion euro allocated to it, although Europe's biggest market is still benefiting from advanced orders which are still being processed. As a result the German market showed a sales volume increase of 24.1% on October to 321,000 units, which helped boost Western European passenger car sales for the months by 15.8% y/y. Other major Western European markets were also big winners in October. The United Kingdom posted growth of 31.6% y/y to 169,000 units as a result of the successful implementation of the U.K. government's scrappage scheme. This gives an allowance of £2,000 towards a new passenger car when the customer scraps a car of more than 10 years old, with half the amount being offered by the government and the other half being supplied by the OEM in question. France also showed strong growth of 20.3% to 210,000 units, while Spain and Italy's monthly totals were also bolstered by 26.4% and 15.7% y/y respectively.
October 2009 European New Passenger Car Registrations by Country | ||||||
Oct 2009 | Oct 2008 | % Change 2008 | Jan-Oct 2009 | Jan-Oct 2008 | % Change 2008 | |
Austria | 26,694 | 25,992 | +2.7 | 274,369 | 258,149 | +6.3 |
Belgium | 39,726 | 42,998 | -7.6 | 414,609 | 483,729 | -14.3 |
Denmark | 9,742 | 11,342 | -14.1 | 91,317 | 133,237 | -31.5 |
Finland | 7,610 | 10,164 | -25.1 | 80,219 | 128,729 | -37.7 |
France | 210,424 | 174,939 | +20.3 | 1,823,925 | 1,750,703 | +4.2 |
Germany | 321,120 | 258,814 | +24.1 | 3,311,886 | 2,630,287 | +25.9 |
Greece | 11,720 | 19,666 | -40.4 | 192,769 | 245,902 | -21.6 |
Ireland | 1,526 | 1,748 | -12.7 | 56,637 | 150,790 | -62.4 |
Italy | 195,545 | 169,032 | +15.7 | 1,807,832 | 1,880,555 | -3.9 |
Luxemburg | 4,301 | 4,488 | -4.2 | 41,163 | 46,172 | -10.8 |
Netherlands | 35,805 | 41,875 | -14.5 | 352,134 | 462,938 | -23.9 |
Portugal | 15,183 | 14,674 | +3.5 | 128,040 | 176,839 | -27.6 |
Spain | 98,202 | 77,686 | +26.4 | 775,378 | 1,025,677 | -24.4 |
Sweden | 21,783 | 22,299 | -2.3 | 173,914 | 219,210 | -20.7 |
United Kingdom | 168,942 | 128,352 | +31.6 | 1,685,981 | 1,922,771 | -12.3 |
European Union (EU15) | 1,168,323 | 1,004,069 | +16.4 | 11,210,173 | 11,515,688 | -2.7 |
Iceland | 76 | 181 | -58.0 | 1,869 | 8,913 | -79.0 |
Norway | 10,187 | 8,390 | +21.4 | 78,825 | 95,846 | -17.8 |
Switzerland** | 22,275 | 24,426 | -8.8 | 219,258 | 243,548 | -10.0 |
EFTA | 32,538 | 32,997 | -1.4 | 299,952 | 348,307 | -13.9 |
EU15+EFTA | 1,200,861 | 1,037,066 | +15.8 | 11,510,125 | 11,863,995 | -3.0 |
Bulgaria | 1,531 | 3,878 | -60.5 | 19,723 | 38,202 | -48.4 |
Czech Republic | 14,121 | 12,973 | +8.8 | 131,869 | 121,973 | +8.1 |
Estonia | 450 | 1,677 | -73.2 | 7,404 | 22,213 | -66.7 |
Hungary** | 3,557 | 12,872 | -72.4 | 52,404 | 133,607 | -60.8 |
Latvia | 218 | 1,183 | -81.6 | 3,397 | 17,239 | -80.3 |
Lithuania | 493 | 1,715 | -71.3 | 5,930 | 19,480 | -69.6 |
Poland | 25,279 | 27,606 | -8.4 | 264,790 | 263,153 | +0.6 |
Romania | 7,572 | 24,474 | -69.1 | 96,176 | 252,924 | -62.0 |
Slovakia | 4,459 | 6,775 | -34.2 | 66,813 | 58,858 | +13.5 |
Slovenia | 4,764 | 5,865 | -18.8 | 47,750 | 61,120 | -21.9 |
EU (new members) | 62,444 | 99,018 | -36.9 | 696,256 | 988,769 | -29.6 |
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