Brazilian Senate Approves Climate Change Bill as New Report Counts Cost of Inaction

Senate Approves Climate Change Bill

The Senate on Wednesday (25 November) approved a bill that establishes a national policy on climate change. The basic text of the bill had already been approved by the Chamber of Deputies, but it will have to be resubmitted in order to enable deputies to consider amendments made by the upper house. Changes to the bill include the inclusion of the government's proposal for a target calling for a 36.1%-38.9% reduction in projected levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Although the target is voluntary rather than binding, the adoption of any target at all represents a major breakthrough for a country that has consistently argued that developed countries should bear the brunt of the responsibility for reducing emissions. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Brazil was one of the countries not required to adopt targets and its climate action plan presented last December did not include any targets either. The inclusion of this target in the bill approved by the Senate represents an important victory for the government in a Congress that has a mixed record when it comes to supporting the administration's efforts to protect the environment. However, for it to become law a presidential decree will still be required setting out specific guidelines on how the emissions reduction goal will be met. The Senate has also approved another of the bills that the government wants to take to Copenhagen, a bill creating a national fund on climate change that will now go forward for signing by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Meanwhile, yesterday saw President Lula meet with the leaders of several neighbouring countries in Manaus, Brazil to discuss a joint strategy for protecting the Amazon rainforest. The meeting was attended by the French president Nicholas Sarkozy. France and Brazil recently announced that they would present a joint position on climate change at the Copenhagen (Denmark) summit in December at which global leaders are hoping to seal a deal on combatting climate change to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is due to expire in 2012. Brazil and its neighbours are hoping to secure a commitment from developed countries for more financial support for the protection of the Amazon.

These positive developments will be particularly welcome in a week that has seen the release of figures showing the cost of inaction.

Report Warns of Threat to Economic Growth if No Action Taken

A new report has been published that has been billed as the Brazilian version of the U.K.'s 2006 Stern Review on the potential impact of climate change on the global economy. Using scenarios set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the study warns that failure to take any action to address climate change could result in losses to the Brazilian economy of between 719 billion reais (US$411.5 billion) and 3.6 trillion reais by 2050, equivalent to a 0.5-2.3% reduction in GDP. Agriculture was regarded as one of the most vulnerable areas, with higher temperatures and the increased risk of drought reducing crop yields. The north-east of Brazil, which is already prone to droughts, is regarded as one of the areas likely to be hardest hit, which means that existing geographical disparities in income distribution could be exacerbated. Low-lying coastal areas are also regarded as at risk from rising sea levels. The report was compiled by 11 institutions.

This week has also seen the release of preliminary figures on greenhouse gas emissions by the Ministry for Science and Technology. The figures show a 62% increase in Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions over a 15-year period. The preliminary inventory puts Brazil's total emissions at 2.203 billion tonnes in 2005, putting it in sixth place behind China, the United States, Europe, and Indonesia. Changes in land use, including deforestation, accounted for 57.5% of total emissions in 2005, compared to 22.1% for agriculture, 16.4% from the energy sector, and 1.7% from industrial processes. The new data will be subject to public consultation before a final inventory is released next year. Nonetheless, the release of preliminary figures for 2005 ahead of the Copenhagen Summit will be welcomed by those who argue that it is difficult for the government to make proposals on cuts without having figures on actual emissions. The figures are also important as they show that despite Brazil's recent progress in slowing the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, other sectors that have seen an increase in emissions need to be targeted.

Outlook and Implications

Latin America looks set to be one of the main beneficiaries of a new global climate change deal, in terms of potential financing for CDM projects or their successor, and financial support for efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change. However, along with Africa and Asia, it is also one the regions likely to be worst affected if meaningful action is not taken. The 2005 drought in the Amazon, severe flooding in northern Brazil, heavy flooding in southern Brazil last year, the record hurricane season of 2005 in the Caribbean, and the shrinking of glaciers in Peru and Bolivia have been cited as examples of climate change already having an impact on the region. Warnings of an increased risk of extreme weather events if global temperatures are allowed to rise is of particular concern to countries in Central America, the Caribbean, and the Andean region that are already prone to natural disasters and where the impact on the poor of these types of events is often worsened by precarious living conditions. Higher temperatures in some parts of the region could increase cases of malaria and dengue fever as well as affecting crop yields. All this means that concerted action is needed at a global and a regional level. Brazil is taking a positive role in co-ordinating a response with other countries in the Amazon region and working closely with the European Union (EU). However, many challenges will remain beyond Copenhagen, even if some kind of deal is reached.