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Same-Day Analysis

Russia's "Big Three" Mobile Operators Report Data-Traffic Surge After Moscow 3G Launches

Published: 1/20/2010

The doubling, and in some cases tripling, of data usage provides early vindication of the drive to offer 3G in the capital.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Having gained permission to launch 3G in Moscow only in December, Russia's leading operators are already reporting sizeable increases in data-traffic levels.

Implications

Although the data-traffic growth figures apply only to Moscow subscribers, this equates to around 20% of the operators' total subscriber bases. The increased data-traffic levels will inevitably be reflected in ARPU figures.

Outlook

The increase in data-traffic levels also reflects the changing dynamics of the Russian mobile market. After the subscriber surges of several years ago, there is now much less room for organic subscriber growth in the country and operators are increasing their focus on subscriber quality, through increased voice traffic levels and uptake of value-added services.

Russia's three leading mobile operators and only 3G licensees—Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), VimpelCom, and MegaFon—have each reported significant increases in their mobile data-traffic levels since launching outdoor 3G services in Moscow, according to a widely cited report in Vedomosti. MTS has reported that data traffic was up two to three times on parts of the network since the launch of 3G on 29 December, according to company spokeswoman Irina Osadchaya. VimpelCom has reported that data traffic was up 2.5 to 3.0 times since its 3G launch on 28 December, according to company spokeswoman Kseniya Korneeva. MegaFon Commercial Director Oleg Klochko has indicated that the company's internet traffic more than doubled during the fourth quarter, with 3G traffic accounting for around 20% of all data transfers.

Outlook and Implications

Increased Data Traffic to Be Reflected in ARPU Figures: Although the data-traffic growth figures apply only to Moscow subscribers, this equates to around 20% of the operators' total subscriber bases, with, for example, MTS reporting in November 2009 that of its 68.78 million Russian subscribers, 13.57 million were in Moscow and the Moscow Region. MTS had reported that of total third-quarter 2009 blended monthly ARPU of US$8.2, around US$1.5 came from data services, and the increased data-traffic levels will inevitably be reflected in ARPU figures, although none has yet been released.

Operators Vindicated in Moscow 3G Push: The surge in data-traffic levels will be observed with some satisfaction by the three mobile operators, which had sought for some time to gain permission for 3G provision in Moscow. As the economic hub of the country, the capital city is home to higher end customers who would therefore be more liberal users of the more expensive value-added services facilitated by 3G. That the operators had sought to implement 3G is therefore understandable, but for several months 3G provision in the capital had not been possible because of the use of relevant spectrum by the military, and Moscow eventually became the last city in Russia in which outdoor 3G provision was allowed (see Russia: 15 December 2009: Further Progress for Russia's Big Three on Moscow 3G Issue). However, the hike in traffic-usage levels appears to justify the sentiment of these operators.

Changing Dynamics of Russian Mobile Market: The increase in data-traffic levels also reflects the changing dynamics of the Russian mobile market. After the subscriber surges of several years ago, there is now much less room for organic subscriber growth in the country, even though multiple-SIM ownership is allowing for continued uptake. Operators are increasing their focus on subscriber quality, through increased voice traffic levels and uptake of value-added services. The faster download speeds enabled by 3G technology will help to boost such usage levels, and in the longer term IHS Global Insight expects that the operators in question will pursue the more advanced technology of 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE). With MTS and VimpelCom having also branched out into the fixed broadband sector and MegaFon having made public its aim to do likewise, the trends in the mobile market and strategies of operators continue to evolve. During 2009 MTS reported that data services accounted for less than 20% of total ARPU; such a figure is likely to increase steadily as the mobile market develops.
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