World Powers Gather for Yemen Stabilisation Conference in London

A Focus on Development

World powers are gathering at a summit in London today to discuss means preventing Yemen from becoming a failed state and preventing al-Qaida from strengthening its stranglehold in the country. Governments will be asked to pledge billions of dollars in aid to the impoverished to boost development and increase employment schemes in the conflict-wracked country. Among the attendees will be both U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Yemeni prime minister Abu Baker al-Qirbi. Representatives from the World Bank and IMF will also be present reflecting the urgency of the need to focus on the country’s ailing economy. Reduced oil revenues have put state finances under severe strain; the country’s long-term economic prospects are looking increasingly uncertain. Yemen’s problems remain complex and wide-ranging. For example, the country also faces a number of demographic challenges, with one of the highest population growth rates in the world, at over 3%. Poverty and despair are increasingly driving ordinary Yemenis into the arms of extremists and if the international community is to act to prevent this it clearly needs to go beyond a narrow military approach to fighting al-Qaida.

An Al-Qaida Haven

British prime minister Gordon Brown called the conference in the wake of the failed attempt by a young Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to bring down a Northwest Airlines jet on Christmas Day. The United States placed blame for the airline plot squarely on al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). This is a regional arm of the international network, whose operations have primarily been based in Yemen. Previously, U.S. officials had confirmed that the attack had been planned in Yemen and that the failed bomber had spent several months in an al-Qaida training camp north of Sana'a, but they refrained from linking the bomber directly to AQAP. U.S. president Barack Obama vowed to hit back at the organisation, declaring in a radio address on Saturday (2 January) that "training camps had been struck, leaders eliminated and plots disrupted". The United States and other Western nations have already pledged to increase aid military and economic assistance to the country, which remains the most impoverished outside of Africa and has long been battling the rise of Islamic extremism. In fiscal year (FY) 2010, U.S. aid to Yemen is expected to rise to US$63 million, up more than US$20 million from last year.

Increased U.S. activity in Yemen predates the failed bomb plot by several months, pledges having been made of greater funding and training assistance to Yemen's special forces, as well as increased intelligence sharing. The combined ground and air assaults on 17 and 24 of December were both supported by the United States, during which a total of 80 militants are believed to have been killed (see Yemen: 24 December 2009: Yemen Moves in on Al-Qaida as 34 More Militants are Killed in Airstrikes). Such operations may play well in the United States, but within Yemen they were highly controversial and have stoked anti-U.S. feeling. A number of protests were seen over the alleged high civilian casualty rate. The backlash is a worrying omen of what is to come if U.S.-backed military operations are intensified.

Outlook and Implications