Election 2010: Opposition Leader Declared Victor in Ukraine, PM Refuses to Concede

One week after the 7 February run-off presidential election, Ukraine's Central Election Commission (CEC) yesterday announced its official results declaring leader of the opposition Party of Regions (PoR) Victor Yanukovych the winner. According to the commission's announcement, Yanukovych won the election by a margin of 3.48%. The final election results did not differ substantially from the preliminary figures announced last week, whereby Yanukovych won 48.95% of the vote while his opponent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYT) garnered 45.47% of the vote. According to the CEC, 4.36% of ballots were marked as "against all."

Election Results Under Contest

In a move designed to pre-empt the results and demonstrate her resolve to prevent Yanukovych from ever becoming "a legitimately elected president of Ukraine under any circumstance" Tymoshenko announced on Saturday (13 February) that she would not recognise the results of the election as announced by the CEC. Tymoshenko went on to accuse Yanukovych of extensive fraud and revealed that she would seek to challenge the outcome in the country's supreme administrative court, not through the organisation of street protests which would only intensify the current state of political instability. Despite her accusations of electoral fraud, Tymoshenko is likely to have a hard time proving such a claim. European election monitors, including those from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have already issued their assessment of the poll, deeming it honest, free and fair. Furthermore, Yanukovych's victory has already been welcomed by foreign leaders with U.S. president Barack Obama and French president Nicolas Sarkozy as well as EU Council president Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso being among the first to offer their congratulations to Ukraine's president-elect.

Although Tymoshenko was defeated at the presidential election, she remains prime minister of Ukraine's highly fragmented political scene. Yanukovych has already demanded that Tymoshenko tender her resignation as prime minister; a demand she has refused to consider. At present the future does not look overly promising for the ability of the two leaders to foster political co-operation despite their personal animosity. As a result, Ukraine's political scene could still be in for significant changes as Yanukovych could pursue options to remove Tymoshenko through a no-confidence vote in the government, which if adopted would force a new parliamentary coalition or a fresh parliamentary election. Neither option bodes particularly well for a return to stability in Ukrainian politics.

Yanukovych Clarifies Pro-Russian Stance

While the political turmoil in Ukraine continued unabated, Yanukovych sought to take early charge of the country's political scene and clearly outline his foreign policy vision. In an address on Russian TV, Yanukovych sought to embark on the task of rebuilding Ukraine-Russian relations frayed by the 2004-2005 Orange Revolution. In the past five years, Yanukovych's PoR has sought to reinvent itself as a more centrist party instead of the pro-Russian vehicle seen in the 2004 election. Nonetheless, Yanukovych remains strongly allied to Ukraine's biggest neighbour. As a result, his first speech since being elected contained a number of defence policies which will be looked at positively by Russia. During his televised address, Yanukovych reiterated several key campaign pledges including that he will not pursue NATO integration for Ukraine; that he would support Russian plans for the creation of a post-NATO European security treaty and finally that he would allow Russia to maintain its navy bases in the Crimea beyond 2017.

Yanukovych also sought to clarify his vision for Ukraine's energy infrastructure, of strategic importance for the European Union (EU) since it is the main transit country for Russian gas. He sought to underline his vision of the creation of a Russian-led energy consortium to take ownership of Ukraine's gas transit pipeline network. In order to maintain his image as being in favour of both Russia and the EU, Yanukovych indicated that one-third of the pipeline would be owned by Russian state gas giant Gazprom, another third would go to European companies, potentially including Eon Ruhrgas and Gaz de France; while the finally third would remain in the ownership of the Ukrainian government.

Outlook and Implications

There is a distinct impression of déjà vu with Tymoshenko's efforts to have Yanukovych's election victory thrown out. In 2004, weeks of street protests saw Yanukovych's election victory overturned in favour of revolutionaries Tymoshenko and outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko. Her efforts to have history repeat itself are, however, likely to prove futile. Firstly, the Ukrainian voters are tired of revolutions and are looking for stability even if it comes at a price of less individual freedom. Secondly, Ukraine's political and economic situation is vastly different to what it was five years ago. Ukraine's economy cannot afford another revolution; it is facing serious fiscal shortages as its only major international lender, the International Monetary Fund, has halted co-operation subject to the return of political stability and previously agreed reforms. Furthermore Ukraine's economy shrank nearly 15% in 2009 and the hryvnia lost more than 50% of its value between August 2008 and January 2009, but stabilised over the course of the year. Thirdly, the international community is less keen to support a leader who has failed once to deliver the promises of economic and democratic change leaving the country in a deeper state of unrest and decline. The West is wary of showing enthusiastic support for a toned down and ideologically unclear programme. Instead, the international community has presented itself as ready to work with any government that can provide the minimum—domestic stability, economic co-operation with the west and good relations with Russia to ensure a secure gas flow to the European Union.

According to Ukrainian law, the inauguration of a new president must be held within 30 days of the official announcement of results. As a result, Ukraine faces at least one more month of political uncertainty as Tymoshenko attempts to derail the process, meaning that the instability which has characterised the country's domestic politics for the past 12 months will continue unabated for the immediate future.