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Same-Day Analysis

Geneva Motor Show 2010: Preview

Published: 2/26/2010

Key new models are on show in Geneva, especially from the German OEMs, as the industry braces itself for a tough year in Europe.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

While the industry is in a marginally less febrile state going into this year's Geneva Motor Show than at the same point last year, there are still concerns over the macroeconomic environment conditions and the gradual phasing out of the various European scrappage incentives.

Implications

There appears to be marginally less emphasis on alternative powertrains and electric cars, which were the big trend on display in Frankfurt. In Geneva there will be a number of core new product launches such as the BMW 5-Series.

Outlook

With the show taking place against further divestments and consolidation in the automotive industry with Saab and Volvo in the process of being sold to Chinese bidders, other marginal European brands such as Alfa Romeo will be hoping that key model launches can generate renewed interest and secure at least short-term independence.

The 80th Geneva Motor Show gets under way next week, with key new model launches planned from a number of major European OEMs. However, while there is some grounds for hope that macroeconomic indicators are improving in the European industry, the gradual withdrawal of fleet renewal schemes is likely to lead to a significant contraction in the European market during 2010, with IHS Global Insight forecasting a sales decline in the West Europe's passenger car market of 10.9% to 12 million units. However, a number of brands are launching new models that they hope will at least grab them an increased share of a declining overall market.

Alfa Romeo will have arguably the most important new model in the company's history at Geneva. With the future of the brand under review by Fiat's senior management, the company will be hoping the new C1-segment Giulietta will bolster sales. It will replace the 147 and will feature the Fiat Group's new modular platform technology. The Giulietta features a coupé-like roofline although will have the same rear space as a Golf, according to Alfa. The Fiat Group has said it benchmarked Alfa Giulietta rivals such as the Audi A3 and BMW 1-Series models for the platform's new architecture.

Audi will launch the eagerly awaited A1 premium B-segment model. The A1 will challenge the BMW Mini in this segment, with the latter model having created the market niche and having a virtual monopoly in the segment since its launch in 2001. The A1 is based closely the metro project Quattro concept that was shown at the 2007 Tokyo Motor Show. The model will be available with three-door and five door "Sportback" body styles, as well as a high-performance S1 version, which will rival the Mini Cooper S. Audi is expecting around 80% of A1 buyers to be entirely new to the brand with the model forming a key part of the brand's goal to become the world's leading premium carmaker by 2015.

BMW will also have a key model update in its range with the launch of the six generation F10 5-Series design. On the face of it, BMW has taken a more sober design approach under new design director Adrian van Hooydonk in comparison to the previous E60 model. The car echoes the smooth and cohesive design approach of the very highly regarded E39 model variant which was in production between 1996 ands 2003. The model will feature a number of gasoline (petrol) engine variants including two straight sixes, (201bhp 523i and 254bhp 528i), a single-turbocharged straight six (302bhp 535i) and the 401-bhp twin-turbo V8 550i. However, the best selling model will be the 520d variant, which will have class-leading figures of 181 bhp while achieving 56.5mpg, while emitting just 132g/km of CO2. There will also be two models powered by the same 2993cc straight-six diesel in two states of tune; the 201-bhp 525d and the 242-bhp 530d.

Ford will show the European specification model of the Ford Focus which debuted in January's Detroit Auto Show. The new Focus is a world car so there is likely to be little variation from the model that was shown in Detroit.

Mazda will show the production version of the next generation Mazda5 MPV at the Geneva Motor Show, according to an Automotive News Europe report. The new model is based on Ford's C-platform which also underpins the recently launched Mazda3 and the new Ford Focus which was unveiled at the NAIAS. Mazda has also said that the new model will reduce the range's CO2 emissions by 15% this year as a result of the introduction of a new direct-injection gasoline engine and Mazda's "i-stop" start-stop technology.

Mini will launch the new Countryman crossover model, which will become the fourth separate production model in the Mini range. The model is larger than the existing Clubman estate variant and has four doors and a higher roof to target new customers requiring extra space and flexibility. The model will use existing powertrain options, with the option of its new permanent four-wheel-drive system, known as ALL4, available on the Cooper S and Cooper Diesel variants.

Nissan will show the important new Juke sport utility vehicle (SUV) at Geneva, which is expected to be launched in Europe by September. Nissan plans to sell around 150,000 units per annum, with Europe creating around 60 to 70% of this demand. The new model will be available with three engine options. A new 1.6-litre (190bhp) turbocharged gasoline direct-injection unit will be available with all-wheel-drive and a constant-variable-transmission (CVT). The other engine options are a 1.4-litre diesel and 1.6-litre (113bhp) gasoline engine which will sport two-wheel-drive mated with a six-speed manual transmission. The model combines elements of coupé and SUV styling, and Nissan hopes it will replicate the success of the Qashqai.

Opel/Vauxhall will launch the new version of the Meriva compact MPV. The model will boast a rather interesting feature in the shape of rear-hinged "suicide" doors that were shown on the original concept vehicle at the 2008 Geneva Motor Show. The company is referring to these doors as "FlexDoors" and it is the first time that such a door design has been used on a production MPV. The styling apes the design language featured in the new C1-segment Astra and D1-segment Insignia. The model will also feature six different turbocharged powertrains from the Astra model range, with power outputs ranging from 74bhp to 138bhp. Vauxhall claims that the model's range average fuel consumption has been cut by 15%.

Porsche will release the second generation Cayenne SUV at Geneva. The new Cayenne will come as a timely fillip to Porsche's flagging sales which slumped by a quarter during the company's 2008/09 financial year. A lot rests on the new Cayenne as it is Porsche's biggest-selling model. Porsche will use updated versions of its existing powertrains in the new model, including the entry-level gasoline 296bhp 3.6-litre V6, a 395bhp naturally aspirated 4.8-litre V8 in the mid-range Cayenne S and a range-topping 493bhp turbocharged 4.8-litre V8 in the range-topping Cayenne Turbo. The hybrid powertrain will use Audi's supercharged V6 unit that was developed for the new S4 and S5. The engine produces 333bhp in combination with a 46bhp electric motor that draws energy from a lithium-ion battery mounted in the spare wheel well in the floor of the boot.

Volkswagen (VW) will debut the latest generation Touareg SUV. The new model will be available in the market from August onwards, and will use the same platform as the aforementioned new Porsche Cayenne, with the two models sharing common architecture. VW has launched the model with three engine options, which offer more power, as well as having the same hybrid-electric powertrain as the Cayenne. It has introduced a new eight-speed automatic transmission supplied by Aisin Seiki to further bolster fuel efficiency. Other engines in the range will include a 3-litre, 238bhp V6 turbo-diesel engine, which produces around 195g/km of CO2. VW will launch another entry-level engine option during November, a 3-litre (202bhp) diesel engine, and to complete the range will also have a 4.2-litre (337bhp) V8 turbodiesel engine.

Volvo will debut its new S60 D2-segment sedan, which it hopes will help alter the general perceptions of the brand, while giving the ailing carmaker renewed sales impetus. In truth the new S60 could not have come soon enough as the outgoing model is now in its tenth year and it was off the pace of class leaders such as the Mercedes-Benz C-Class and BMW 3-Seriies. Volvo has concentrated on enhancing the styling and dynamic qualities of the S60. The company will offer four engine variants, 2.0-litre and 3.0-litre gasoline engines and 2.0-litre and 2.4-litre diesel variants.

Outlook and Implications

While the European passenger car market prevents a challenging outlook for the OEMs, the new model launches on show at the Geneva are a good indicator of the relative strengths of the main players. The German OEMs are in particular launching a number of strategically key new models which will see then look to grow and consolidate their market share. The biggest battle ground in the respect is symbolised by the launch of the new Audi A1 and the sixth generation BMW 5-Series, both key models in the battle to become the world's biggest premium OEM; the position Audi is targeting to relieve BMW of by 2015. Elsewhere, there are a number of key new model launches from brands which at best face a somewhat uncertain future, with Vauxhall/Opel launching the new Meriva Mini-MPV, Alfa Romeo launching the new Giulietta and Volvo the new S60. They will be hoping that these models will help increase interest in the brands, increase outright volumes, and buy time while takeover or restructuring plans are finalised.
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