Norwegian Pharma Market Valued at US$3.1 bil. in 2009, Up 2.7% Y/Y

As expected, pharmaceutical sales did not boom in 2009 in Norway, where patent expiry and pricing and reimbursement policies have lessened growth prospects for drug makers. For the full year, Norwegian pharmaceutical sales reached 18.2 billion kroner (US$3.1 billion) at pharmacy purchasing prices (PPP), up 2.7% year-on-year (y/y), reports the Norwegian Association of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers.

In 2009, U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer remained at the top of the leading manufacturers (see below table), with annual sales of 1.3 billion kroner at PPP. In second place comes AstraZeneca (U.K.), with annual sales up 10.4% y/y to 912 million kroner at PPP. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK, U.K.), Novartis (Switzerland), Schering-Plough (U.S.), and Sanofi-Aventis (France) follow, with annual sales ranging from 528 to 839 million kroner. The big winner of the year appears to be Roche, which saw its sales increase by 46.1% y/y to 526 million kroner, thanks to the strong demand for its influenza (flu) treatment Tamiflu. The latter, whose sales amounted to 127 million kroner in 2009, strikes 8th place among the best-selling products by revenue, following the exploding demand induced by the A/H1N1 flu (swine flu) pandemic in 2009.

The over-the-counter (PTC) market grew 5% y/y to reach 1 billion kroner at pharmacy level in 2009. This sharp increase is mainly due to the roll-out of GSK's weight-loss drug alli (orlistat) in May 2009. The data confirms that the OTC market is growing at a faster pace than the global pharma market, a trend that has been observed for several years in the country.

In 2009, disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs came high on the list of best-selling medicines by turnover, with Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen, U.S.) and Remicade (infliximab; Schering-Plough) leading the top 10 with respective sales of 378 million kroner and 277 million kroner at PPP. Asthma drugs Seretide (salmeterol and fluticasone propionate, GSK) and Symbicort (formoterol and budesonide, AstraZeneca) respectively strike the third and fifth positions, with annual sales of 262 million kroner and 161 million kroner at PPP. The exclusion of cholesterol-lowering drug Lipitor (atorvastatin, Pfizer) from the top 10 came as no surprise following its patent expiry in Norway last year. Sales of Lipitor fell 16.4% y/y in the country to 110 million kroner. The sharp decrease was mostly felt during the second quarter of 2009 after the reimbursement cut of Lipitor, which was effective in May 2009.

Under pressure to improve its regulatory procedure, the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NoMA) has approved an increased number of pharmaceuticals in 2009. While 27 agents were withdrawn from the market, the regulatory body approved 54 new molecules—including veterinary products—which is an increase from 36 in 2008.

Since 2005, the success of the pro-generic measures implemented by the Norwegian government has continually proved to enhance generic penetration in the market. Despite a slight decrease in 2009, the overall trend remains on the rise thanks to the stepped-price system, which indexes reimbursement of generics at a fraction of the price of the originator drug, and to the preferred product scheme, which encourages generic substitution. When only the substitutable market is taken into account, generics represent a volume share of 70%, and a 38.4% volume share of the total market.

Outlook and Implications

For the year ahead, the Norwegian pharmaceutical market should not experience stronger growth as patent expiry and cost-containment measures will similarly restrain revenue growth. Norway's top manufacturer, Pfizer, is expected to lose further ground on the Norwegian market as sales of its blockbuster Lipitor will continue to plummet in 2010. Following its 5 November 2008 entry in the country's stepped-price system, on 15 May 2009 the drug saw its reimbursement rate set at 25% of its price at the time of generic entry.