Key U.S. Data Releases and Events

The February trade report is expected to show a sharp reduction in the deficit, as exports are unlikely to see as much downward pressure, but imports keep declining in response to weak consumer demand and lower oil import volumes.

Markets will also be gearing up for key first-quarter earnings reports, with a heavy reporting schedule for the following week of April 13–17.

KEY U.S. DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK

Thursday, April 9 – Trade Balance (Feb.)

• IHS Global Insight: -$31.1 Billion
• Consensus: -$36.5 Billion
• Last Actual: -$36.0 Billion (Jan.)

What to Look For

• We expect the trade deficit to narrow again in February, to $31.1 billion, from $36.0 billion in January.

Implications

Export and import volumes have both fallen sharply as global trade has contracted, but the export decline during January was extreme, and much more severe than the import decline. We expect to see the reverse pattern for February, with exports more stable and imports down sharply, especially in petroleum products and consumer goods. Oil prices were higher in February, but the oil import bill should still fall because of lower volumes.