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Perspectives
U.S. Metro Job Recovery Will Take a While
Published: 8/24/2009
Although there are increasing signs that the economy has bottomed out, IHS Global Insight's summer forecast shows that a job recovery is still a ways off for most of the nation's metropolitan areas. Of the 363 metros in the country, just one—McAllen, Texas—will add more than 1,000 jobs this year. While most areas will begin increasing employment again in 2010, it will be tepid, with only 118 metros crossing the 1,000-job mark next year. Solid gains will not return for the majority of the country until 2011.
The slow recovery means it will be well into next decade before most areas regain the jobs lost during this recession. Not surprisingly, auto-ravaged Detroit will see the largest employment decline (more than 15%) among major metro areas, and will need years, if not decades, to recover. The housing-bust metros of the Sunbelt (Phoenix, Arizona; Riverside, California; Tampa, Florida) will all suffer steep drops and not return to pre-recession levels until 2013 or later. At the other end of the spectrum, Texas metros and Washington, DC, have avoided the brunt of this downturn and, thus, will be among the first to recover.
Outlook for Nation's 50 Largest Metro Areas | |||
Job Loss by End of Recession | Return to Pre- | ||
Thous. | % | ||
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI | -313.4 | -15.3 | After 2015 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | -207.2 | -10.8 | 2014 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | -134.4 | -10.5 | 2013 |
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV | -82.9 | -8.9 | 2013 |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | -100.7 | -7.9 | 2013 |
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA | -71.7 | -7.9 | 2013 |
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH | -80.9 | -7.5 | After 2015 |
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL | -77.5 | -7.1 | 2012 |
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC | -62.0 | -7.1 | 2012 |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA | -171.5 | -7.0 | 2012 |
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA | -50.4 | -7.0 | After 2015 |
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA | -381.4 | -6.8 | 2014 |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | -156.6 | -6.5 | 2013 |
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA | -67.9 | -6.5 | 2013 |
Jacksonville, FL | -40.5 | -6.4 | 2012 |
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI | -52.1 | -6.1 | After 2015 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | -54.3 | -5.9 | 2012 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | -119.0 | -5.8 | 2012 |
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA | -74.3 | -5.7 | 2012 |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | -44.0 | -5.7 | 2012 |
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI | -256.3 | -5.6 | 2014 |
Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN | -56.1 | -5.3 | 2014 |
Birmingham-Hoover, AL | -27.2 | -5.1 | 2013 |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT | -32.4 | -5.0 | After 2015 |
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN | -31.4 | -5.0 | 2013 |
Richmond, VA | -30.9 | -4.9 | 2012 |
St. Louis, MO-IL | -64.7 | -4.7 | 2014 |
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO | -59.4 | -4.7 | 2012 |
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY | -25.6 | -4.6 | 2014 |
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN | -41.3 | -4.5 | 2012 |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | -76.4 | -4.3 | 2013 |
Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -26.8 | -4.2 | 2012 |
Raleigh-Cary, NC | -21.9 | -4.2 | 2011 |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | -72.7 | -4.1 | 2012 |
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH | -97.1 | -3.9 | 2012 |
New York-No. New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA | -324.6 | -3.8 | 2012 |
Salt Lake City, UT | -24.6 | -3.8 | 2011 |
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | -100.9 | -3.6 | 2012 |
Pittsburgh, PA | -40.0 | -3.5 | 2013 |
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX | -86.4 | -3.3 | 2011 |
Baltimore-Towson, MD | -42.7 | -3.2 | 2012 |
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA | -15.6 | -2.9 | 2012 |
Kansas City, MO-KS | -27.4 | -2.7 | 2011 |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC | -19.5 | -2.5 | 2011 |
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | -72.7 | -2.4 | 2011 |
Columbus, OH | -22.9 | -2.4 | 2012 |
Oklahoma City, OK | -13.8 | -2.4 | 2011 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | -56.5 | -1.9 | 2011 |
San Antonio, TX | -9.3 | -1.1 | 2010 |
Austin-Round Rock, TX | -5.7 | -0.7 | 2010 |
All Metro Areas | -5419.3 | -4.6 | 2012 |
Note: Pre-recession job level is defined as the highest employment level reached during 2005-08, except in New Orleans, which is analyzed post-Katrina. Source: IHS Global Insight. | |||
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