Key U.S. Data Releases and Events

Thus, the economic situation reports next week should have a positive spin overall. Both retail sales and industrial production are expected to see solid gains in October, while core consumer and producer prices should be relatively quiet.

The only potential hiccup is that housing starts are expected to step back slightly, in line with recent trends on permits, but the housing market overall is still on a recovery path.

KEY U.S. DATA RELEASES THIS WEEK

Monday, November 16 – Retail Sales (Oct.)

Total

• IHS Global Insight: +1.0%
• Consensus: +0.9%
• Last Actual: -1.5% (Sep.)

Less Autos

• IHS Global Insight: +0.2%
• Consensus: +0.4%
• Last Actual: +0.5% (Sep.)

What to Look For

• Retail sales increased an estimated 1.0% in October, propelled mainly by a rebound in auto sales.
• Excluding autos, sales chugged ahead at a rate of 0.2%.

Implications

October's expected advance was led by the automotive group, as unit sales of light vehicles rebounded from an annual rate of 9.2 million in September to 10.4 million last month. Excluding autos, retail sales rose an estimated 0.2%, their third consecutive monthly gain. October chain-store sales point to sustained growth at general merchandise and apparel stores. The recovery in consumer spending is broadening, but its pace will be restrained by continuing job losses and tight credit conditions.

Tuesday, November 17 – Producer Price Index (Oct.)

Total

• IHS Global Insight: +0.4%
• Consensus: +0.5%
• Last Actual: -0.6% (Sep.)

Core:

• IHS Global Insight: +0.1%
• Consensus: +0.1%
• Last Actual: -0.1% (Sep.)

What to Look For

• The top-level index for finished goods should rise 0.4%.
• Core prices are expected to rise only 0.1%.

Implications

Food prices are poised for a large gain, as a recent report from farmers indicated significantly higher costs for vegetables and fruits. The energy category is likely to show a small increase, as higher gasoline and fuel oil prices are mostly offset by lower electricity and natural gas costs. Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices are projected to inch 0.1% higher. The glut of excess production capacity continues to keep producers' pricing power in check.

Tuesday, November 17 – Industrial Production (Oct.)

• IHS Global Insight: +0.6%
• Consensus: +0.4%
• Last Actual: +0.7% (Sep.)

What to Look For

• Industrial production should climb by 0.6% in October.

Implications

Manufacturing is expected to climb, even though recent strong gains in vehicle production are expected to subside, as the post-clunkers output boost has run its course. But broadly based gains should push manufacturing up by 0.5%. Hours worked in manufacturing fell by 0.4% in October, but we anticipate another large gain in manufacturing productivity; output per hour in manufacturing soared at a 13.6% annual rate in the third quarter, zooming at a 21.2% rate in durables. Utility output should be boosted by abnormally cold fall weather.

Wednesday, November 18 – Consumer Price Index (Oct.)

Total

• IHS Global Insight: +0.2%
• Consensus: +0.2%
• Last Actual: +0.2% (Sep.)

Core

• IHS Global Insight: +0.1%
• Consensus: +0.1%
• Last Actual: +0.2% (Sep.)

What to Look For

• The top-level consumer price index should advance by 0.2%.
• Core prices are expected to inch up only 0.1%.

Implications

Higher gasoline and fuel oil prices should generate roughly a 0.6% increase in the energy category. The core rate, which does not include food and energy, is expected to post a 0.1% gain. Consumer demand remains too weak to support larger increases.

Wednesday, November 18 – Housing Starts and Building Permits (Oct.)

Starts

• IHS Global Insight: 0.584 Mil.
• Consensus: 0.600 Mil.
• Last Actual: 0.590 Mil. (Sep.)

Permits

• IHS Global Insight: 0.576 Mil.
• Consensus: 0.580 Mil.
• Last Actual: 0.575 Mil. (Sep.)

What to Look For

• Housing starts are expected to dip slightly, but permits should be about level.

Implications

Single-family starts are likely to slip, since they have been running ahead of housing permits. Looking into 2010, single-family starts should improve, propelled by the need to replenish inventory, household formation, and job growth. The recovery will be a slow one, though, lasting into 2012. Multi-family starts should rise, but only because their recent collapse has brought their level so near the bottom.