Published: October 2001
Experience curves are useful in projecting quantitatively the fixed costs of chemical production over periods of five years or more at an industry-wide level.
Experience-curve analysis of several products suggests that the petrochemical industry�s doubling-slope is 25%. In other words, petrochemical fixed costs decline 25% with every doubling of production.
This report reviews the use and development of experience curves in chemical and nonchemical sectors, describes experience curve data in general for 30-40 chemicals, discusses which sort of data to use in experience curves and then develops them for five major commodity chemicals: ethylene, styrene monomer, methanol, polyethylene and polypropylene.
This report is relevant to anyone who deals with price forecasts, but especially to strategic planners and managers in production, marketing or product management.