European Policy Dialogue

European Policy Dialogue

European governments and the European Union have committed to ambitious plans to radically transform Europe's energy sector—and by extension its society and economy. The European Union plans to apply a set of industrial and political measures that will alter the nature of energy use and economic activity by 2050 to achieve an 80–95 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels. Over the next 12 months, the European Union needs to devise specific and actionable policies to create a pathway to a low-carbon economy.

The European Policy Dialogue was conceived to accommodate and complement the European Commission's timetable. The Dialogue process—based on IHS CERA independent research, analysis, and facilitation—will identify pragmatic policy choices to achieve a lower carbon and more competitive EU economy by 2050, as well as viable medium-term goals for 2030. As a result of the Dialogue process, IHS CERA will formulate its own independent opinion on sound energy policy for Europe.

Subscribing clients will receive:

• Participation in the European Policy Summits
• Mid-project Update Report
• Special Report: Sound Energy Policy to 2050
• Access to IHS CERA researchers
• Access to IHS CERA secure online product website

Benefits:

European Policy Dialogue will enable members to:

• Understand the trade-offs among competing policy choices
• Participate in a nonpartisan forum, with a balanced debate that includes relatively understudied factors such as fuel supply, infrastructure, and market design
• Quantify the critical role of the public sector in helping to finance the massive capital investments needed for low-carbon projects
• Enhance public-private sector cooperation by building on the successful, productive network between industry and the public sector established in the IHS CERA 2009 European Policy Forum

The 2010–11 Objective: Sound Energy Policy to 2030 and 2050

The 2010–11 European Policy Dialogue will assemble diverse stakeholders in an objective forum to discuss the impact of key policies, first up to 2030, and then to 2050. Recent scenario exercises have used a retrospective methodology, starting with 2050 and working backwards to the present. In contrast IHS CERA will focus on creating the transition pathway from today to 2030 and 2050. We will critically review the investment, financing, and technology development needs on the transition path to 2050 and particularly on the period up to 2030—the business planning horizon and the time frame correlated with policy decisions to be taken by the current European Commission. The goal will be to devise an achievable policy plan using practical mechanisms.
IHS CERA expects the Summit program to include decision-oriented debate of the following issues:

• What are the economic implications of a realistic transition process to a low-carbon economy? What are the costs and who will bear them?
• How can policies be designed to incorporate the realities of infrastructure investment?
• Can gas-fired generation be a bridge strategy to a low-carbon economy? What is the role of gas in the longer term?
• How might future changes in power market design and regulation shape the future power generation mix?
• How much financing is required, and how can market design and public-private partnerships help mobilize investment?
• How can clean energy technology support needed policies? Can the EU Emissions Trading Scheme be reformed to ensure adequate investment in clean energy?
• How can energy efficiency deliver measurable results to consumers? What supportive policies are needed?
• What role can network integration play?

The Dialogue will culminate with a Special Report, Sound Energy Policy to 2050—an authoritative document describing key policies and their potential impact by 2030 and by 2050, and identifying the main challenges to achieving the long-term targets. Sound Energy Policy to 2050—to which clients will have full access and distribution rights—will make specific recommendations to policymakers and regulators.

To deliver policy recommendations, IHS CERA will draw upon its modeling expertise and analysis of the following:

• Geopolitical and economic trends (with support from IHS Global Insight experts)
• Clean technologies developments (with support of our sister company IHS Emerging Energy Research)
• IHS CERA scenarios and outlook for oil, natural gas, steam coal, European power, and the European carbon market
• Reviews of external studies and scenarios analyzing the potential for a decarbonized European energy sector

The IHS CERA European Policy Dialogue launched in early October 2010 and is structured around three Policy Summits. A Special Report and roll-out is planned for second quarter 2011. Members of the Dialogue will be able to distribute the Special Report to outside policy stakeholders.

Specific deliverables include:

• Participation in the European Policy Summits
  • All members will receive two seats to participate in Policy Summit discussions.
  • Members may elect to nominate guest participants, subject to IHS CERA approval.
  • Summits are the IHS CERA most senior events and are often attended by high-level European policymakers.
  • The Policy Summits are not conferences—meetings are structured in a discussion format, with IHS CERA presentations kept to a minimum.
• Mid-project Update Report
  All members will have access to a research summary, to be published in January 2011 with research highlights and key insights to date.
• Special Report: Sound Energy Policy to 2050
  All members will have access and distribution rights to the final Special Report, to be published in May 2011, containing key policy recommendations developed by IHS CERA through our research and the dialogue process.
• Access to IHS CERA researchers
  All members will have telephone and e-mail access to IHS CERA experts to address specific questions and input related to European Policy Dialogue research.
• Access to service website at IHSCERA.com
  All members will have access to the repository for the European Policy Dialogue research deliverables and other information related to the service.

Olivier Abadie - IHS CERA Director for Downstream Europe
Andy Barrett - IHS CERA Senior Associate
Cécile David - Associate Director
Roberto Futuro - IHS CERA Director, Syndicated Research
Steven Knell - IHS CERA Associate
Fabien Roques - IHS CERA Director, European Gas and Power
Michael Stoppard - Managing Director, Global Gas
Shankari Srinivasan - IHS CERA Managing Director Europe, Russia and Caspian
Jean Marie Chevalier - IHS CERA Senior Associate
Daniel Yergin - IHS CERA Chairman
Paul Bulteel - IHS CERA Senior Associate
Anthony White - IHS CERA Senior Associate