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  • Global Liquefied Natural Gas

Energy Strategy: IHS CERA

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Global Liquefied Natural Gas

Global Liquefied Natural Gas Advisory Service provides extensive data, analysis and forecasting for the LNG industry.

In-Depth Analysis Spanning the Full Vertical LNG Value Chain

  • Download Brochure
  • Download Global LNG Supply & Demand Map

Our intelligence covers the entire value chain, from production to end users. We assist clients with immediate concerns—such as determining LNG demand in North America—while maintaining our forward-looking analysis to discover the future sources of industry growth. Our state-of-the art web-based application, LNGAnalytics™, enables you to evaluate potential investments based on your company’s internal assumptions. Through our multiple outlooks, extensive data center and expert research team, we equip you with an early warning system that aids your decision making and helps you protect your investments.

  • Overview
    & Benefits
  • Deliverables
  • LNGAnalytics
  • Future
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  • Research
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  • Global Liquefied Natural Gas Advisory Service helps you discover opportunities and mitigate risk in the international LNG market. Our experts combine cutting-edge knowledge of market drivers and political developments with comprehensive data from our energy outlooks to give you current, accurate picture of the industry.. We help clients understand the dynamic interplay of geopolitical, environmental, technological, economic, regulatory and stakeholder issues that determine the trajectory of the global LNG market.

    As a subscriber, you will be able to:

    • Receive the latest on fundamentals:
      • Global LNG Watch, with updates to the IHS CERA 60-month Outlook
      • Market Briefings
    • Receive our strategic reports on the Big Questions:
      • When will North America need LNG?
      • Where is the next Qatar?
    • Download key industrial statistics from our Data Center:
      • liquefaction and regasification capacity inventories
      • potential commissioning dates
      • listing plants
      • long-term supply and demand
    • Call our research staff to interpret complex data and find answers to uncommon questions
      • IHS CERA LNGAnalytics
      • IHS CERA Market Outlooks
      • IHS CERA Project Valuations
      • Interactive economic tool
      • IHS CERA Capital Cost Index
      • User support, continuously updated
    Who uses the service? How?
    Regional industry clients To understand long-term supply and demand trends in LNG markets as determined by market fundamentals and geopolitical issues
    End-users To understand how industry trends impact prices
    Service providers To understand the needs of producing firms in the sector
    Financial institutions  To understand investment opportunities

    Benefits:

    Global Liquefied Natural Gas Advisory Service enables you to:

    • Understand global gas market fundamentals and driving forces when making investment decisions or preparing reports
    • Benefit from analytic support to develop long-term E&P investment strategies and midstream LNG asset agreements
    • Identify arbitrage and purchase and sales opportunities
    • Distinguish between long-term global trends and short-term regional conditions
    • Evaluate a project's cost using customized key input assumptions
  • Subscribers to Global Liquefied Natural Gas Advisory Service receive:

    Fundamentals reports:

    • Global LNG Watch:
      • Semiannual
      • Short- and medium- term outlooks updating the IHS CERA 60-Month Outlook, including:
        • Quarterly global LNG supply-demand balances for one year ahead
        • Global availability and call-on shipping for one year ahead
        • Emerging industry trends, investments and strategic insights
    • Market Briefings:
      • Eight to ten per year
      • Short-term market outlooks, including:
        • Globally integrated quarterly LNG supply-demand balances
        • Outlooks for benchmark global gas markets and term and spot prices
        • Outlooks for shipping capacity and fleet utilization
        • Global gas inventory stock levels and movements
        • Projected netbacks to key hubs
        • Evolution of spot trade

    Strategic reports:

    • Private Reports and Decision Briefs based on research driven by IHS CERA Big Questions. Corporate leaders, investors, policymakers and energy users rely on our answers to these questions to guide decisions that shape the industry's strategic future.

    Data center:

     Liquefaction and regasification capacity inventories

    • Listing plants
    • Capacities
    • Potential commissioning dates
    • Ownership
    • Long-term LNG market supply and demand
    • Shipping Inventory for current Fleet and Orderbook. Ship level data from IHS Fairplay, Fleet level statistics, short-term charter rates, Fleet utilization
    • LNG Trade by Type. Historical and Outlooks for LNG sold as long-term versus short-term (flexible, diverted and spot) by region and basin, sellers and buyers 
       

    Event invitations:

    • Exclusive client-IHS CERA expert gatherings
    • Seats at IHS CERA spring and fall Executive Roundtables 
    • CERAWeek, IHS CERA Executive Conference, held annually in Houston - for an additional fee
  • IHS CERA LNGAnalytics designed by LNG experts for LNG professionals, features our new dynamic, web-based application giving you access to critical data, forecasting and analysis on the global LNG business.

    LNGAnalytics

    • A single, comprehensive source of information
      • Projects, prices, supply and demand for:
        • Upstream
        • Liquefaction
        • Shipping
        • Regasification
    • An economic analysis tool
      • Project evaluation
      • Cross-project benchmarking
      • Priority list of supply and regas projects
      • Creation of cost stacks by region
    • A user-friendly application
      • Design created by analysts who work in LNG market fundamentals
      • Support tool for financiers working on equity research, project finance, mergers and due diligence
      • First-pass tool for investment decisions

    Categorization of data

    • Supply
      • More than 56 liquefaction projects in 24 countries
      • 180 upstream gas fields
      • 101 liquefaction trains
      • Over 200 long-term supply contracts
    • Shipping
      • Full fleet of 352 tankers
      • 3,255 shipping routes
    • Regasification
      • 186 regasification projects in 37 countries
    • Markets
      • Historical data and short- and long-term LNG forecasts by country and region

    Key features

    • IHS CERA market outlooks
      • Short- and long-term price forecasts
      • Supply and demand forecasts
      • Historical data for price, supply and demand
    • IHS CERA project valuations
      • Cost and present value estimates for all key international LNG upstream and regasification projects
      • Project costs estimated using IHS QUE$TOR and QUE$TOR LNG, including key drivers of overall cost for:
        • Gas field developments
          • Reservoir depth
          • Water depth
          • Gas-to-liquid ratios
          • Well productivity
          • Distance to liquefaction point
        • Liquefaction
          • Greenfield vs. Brownfield
          • Shrinkage
          • Logistics and remoteness
          • Port and utility needs
        • Regasification
          • Technology type
          • Size
          • Tankage capacity
          • Location
    • Interactive economic tool
      • User ability to change key input assumptions
      • User advantage of comparing the difference between client-generated result and IHS CERA baseline, permitting:
        • Identification of particular cost vulnerabilities
        • Alignment of internal corporate assumptions with project cost calculations
    • IHS CERA LNG Capital Cost Index
      • Monitoring of cost over time for a representative basket of liquefaction, shipping and regasification projects
      • Total basket cost updated to reflect key input cost changes for such items as material and labor
      • Semiannual updates
    • Continuous Updates
      • Incorporation of new and expanding projects
      • One-stop reference for the LNG industry
    • User Support
      • Design created by IHS CERA analysts who stand ready to answer your questions about LNGAnalytics content or functionality

    Applications and benefits

    IHS CERA LNGAnalytics enables you to:
    • Identify potential opportunities
    • Conduct what-if alternate scenarios
    • Support investment decisions
    • Evaluate market potential and growth trends
    • Weigh joint venture prospects based on neutral, third-party data
    • Validate internal corporate economics from an unbiased perspective
    • Recognize areas of potential cooperation with other players
    • Meet urgent “Where can I find…?” data demands

    Case studies and questions

    IHS CERA LNGAnalytics can be used to answer the big questions, such as:
    • What are the costs of delivering LNG to the United States?
    • How much have regasification costs risen in the past 12 months?
    • What will be the supply-demand balance in the Pacific Basin post-2010?

    As well as more targeted ones, including:

    • What is the heat content (Btu/cf) of LNG delivered from the Damietta plant in Egypt?
    • How does a potential increase in capital cost for Peru LNG affect the unit production cost?
    • How much are shipping costs affected by a reduction in time charter rates, and how does that change the supply cost curve into India?
  • Subscriber receive Private Reports and Decision Briefs based on research driven by the Advisory Service's Big Questions including:

    • Should international oil companies (IOCs) view LNG as a growth market?
    • Will major industry players look to invest domestically or internationally in the face of an economic downturn?
    • How will the relationship between IOCs and national oil companies (NOCs) develop?
    • Where is the next Qatar?
    • What is the impact of the technological revolution?
    • Is there a global gas price?
    • Will there be a shift from a seller's to a buyer's market?
    • What will be the future relationship between gas and oil prices?
    • When will North America need LNG?
    • What is the impact of the green agenda on the gas industry, particularly for long-term demand?
  • Subscribers receive access to our recent and historical research, available in either English, Chinese or Russian, including such topics as:

    • Global LNG: How Durable a Surplus?
      Signs are emerging that the global gas oversupply is starting to erode the time-honored practice of oil-linked gas prices. Even in the depths of the oversupply, however, it seems that these cracks are not likely to propagate and the strength of the oil-linkage will persist. Oil-linked contracts are bending, but not breaking. The consensus among LNG market watchers is that the surplus will be temporary; it's the definition of temporary that draws disagreement. Reflecting that, even as contracts are being renegotiated, signs are emerging that foreshadow a tightening market, raising the question of the durability of the surplus.
    • Breaking the Link: Winter 2009 NBP Outlook
      New LNG regasification terminals will allow the United Kingdom to import up to 30 percent of its winter demand, up from 15 percent in 2008. At the same time there has been reduced demand, particularly in Asia; increased unconventional production in North America; and significant global liquefaction capacity additions—all of which have increased the volume of spot LNG looking for a home in the Atlantic.
    • Global Gas Surplus: How Will the Industry Deal with Oversupply?
      The global natural gas industry is suffering from the triple whammy of reduced global gas demand, growth in unconventional gas in North America and the long-anticipated surge in global LNG supply. Now a global gas supply bubble has emerged.
    • Shale Gas Outside of North America: High Potential but Difficult to Realize
      The resource potential for shale gas outside of North America is vast. The continuing growth in gas demand and issues concerning the security and diversity of natural gas supply are shaping the next chapter in the unconventional gas story.
    • Where Is the Global Gas Price Floor?
      A triple whammy—a dramatic decline in global industrial demand for natural gas and electricity, an expected surge in LNG supply and an unexpected surge in North American unconventional gas supply—has resulted in much lower natural gas prices. Knowing that a fundamental rebalancing of the global gas market will take several months, the question increasingly being asked is, how low could global natural gas prices go?
    • Global LNG: No Immediate Return to Balance
      The current significant LNG supply overhang is driven by the “triple whammy” of decreased gas demand, increased liquefaction capacity and significant growth in North American shale gas. This overhang is expected to endure through the next couple of years. IHS CERA has extended our global projections through 2012 and sees balance returning to the market, assuming that liquefaction utilization returns slowly to a historical range.
    • Global LNG: Cryogenic Storage Steps into the Breach
      The global gas surplus is weighing down prices and has put the spotlight on storage. Meanwhile the large investments in LNG of recent years—liquefaction, shipping and regasification—have increased the amount of cryogenic storage available, providing an extra buffer against the surge of LNG supply. Indeed much of the new LNG receiving terminal capacity is operating as storage rather than regasification.  
    • Expand All +
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    • Michael Stoppard, Managing Director, Global Gas, IHS CERA

      Michael Stoppard
      Michael Stoppard
      Managing Director, Global Gas, IHS CERA

      Stoppard is a specialist in the international gas business. Responsible for the IHS CERA global and interregional analysis of liquefied natural gas, including business models and LNG trading and shipping, Stoppard led the company into LNG with the study.

      Michael Stoppard, Managing Director, is a member of IHS CERA’s Energy Research Council. He is a specialist of 20 years standing in the international gas business and is responsible for the development and coordination of IHS CERA’s global and interregional coverage of gas markets and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Mr. Stoppard currently leads the IHS CERA European Policy Dialogue, a multi-stakeholder engagement looking at long-term de-carbonization of the European economy. In 2009–10 Mr. Stoppard led the development of the IHS CERA Global Energy Scenarios. He is the author of numerous IHS CERA reports, including analyses of business models, gas and power convergence in Europe, and LNG trading. He was coauthor with Daniel Yergin of “The Next Prize,” published in Foreign Affairs. In 2010 Mr Stoppard also coauthored with Daniel Yergin a Special Paper, “The Voice of Gas.” Mr. Stoppard holds an honors degree from the University of York.

    • Shankari Srinivasan, IHS CERA Managing Director Europe, Global Gas

      Shankari Srinivasan
      Shankari Srinivasan
      IHS CERA Managing Director Europe, Global Gas

      Shankari Srinivasan, IHS CERA Managing Director and Head of Natural Gas, Power, and Renewables Group—Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Asia Pacific, is part of the IHS Energy Research Leadership Team. Ms. Srinivasan is a key expert for IHS CERA’s global gas research, and for the development of IHS CERA’s European gas analysis and its communication to clients. She also has extensive experience in providing strategic analysis and recommendations at the board and senior executive level.

      Before joining IHS CERA Ms. Srinivasan was Head of Gas Fundamentals at Centrica Energy. She is the author of numerous IHS CERA reports, including analyses of business models, supplier strategy, and short-term and long-term fundamentals. She was a primary contributor to the IHS CERA Special Report Securing the Future: Making Gas Interdependence Work. Ms. Srinivasan holds a BA from Brown University, an MSc from the University of Pennsylvania, an MSc from New York University, and an executive MBA from the Cranfield School of Management.

    • Andy Barrett, IHS CERA Senior Associate

      Andy Barrett
      IHS CERA Senior Associate
      Andy Barrett, IHS CERA Senior Associate, has well-established expertise in the international energy industry, in particular in areas of international business development and joint ventures, new market strategies, gas and power issues, and petrochemicals. With IHS CERA, Mr. Barrett has been active since 2001 with the Global Gas, European Gas, European Power and Global LNG teams and has led or participated in a number of projects involving gas and power market development strategies and national energy policy. Mr. Barrett has particular expertise in the gas value chain and associated market and business models. Alongside his work with IHS CERA, he has held positions as chairman of companies in the gas technology and renewable energy arena.

      Prior to joining IHS CERA Mr. Barrett was Executive Vice President and Board Member of BG International, where he was responsible for the company's overall strategy and portfolio, as well as holding specific responsibilities for new gas and power market development and exploration and production investments in South America, East Asia, the Middle East, Italy, Ireland and UK power. Previously he was Vice President of Strategy and Development for BG International Downstream, where he led the group's worldwide development of gas transmission and distribution, power generation and associated marketing and trading activities. Previously, he headed up New Business Development for BG in South America, with successful investments across the energy chain and participation in consortium projects and local partnerships. Earlier he was with Shell in a variety of business areas including downstream oil, petrochemicals, trading and gas and an assignment as Managing Director for Criterion Catalyst Company, an industry-leading global joint venture.

      Mr. Barrett holds a PhD in chemistry from Oxford University and a qualification with the Institute of Chemical Engineers, and he attended the Wharton Business School Advanced Management Program.
    • Marcela Rosas, IHS CERA Associate Director, Global Gas

      Marcela Rosas
      IHS CERA Associate Director, Global Gas
      Bio coming soon
    • Robert Fraser, IHS CERA Director, European Gas and Power

      Robert Fraser
      IHS CERA Director, European Gas and Power

      Robert Fraser, Director, European Gas , IHS CERA specializes in European fundamentals and market modeling. His expertise includes price forecasting, modeling optimal hedging and procurement strategies, and developing scenarios for market development. He also has expertise in corporate strategy analysis and planning.

      Before joining IHS CERA Mr. Fraser was Gas & Oil Fundamentals manager at Centrica, where he analyzed long-term gas supply and demand trends and UK National Balancing Point price forecasting. Previously he worked in Centrica's corporate strategy and procurement strategy teams on analyses of a wide range of energy business issues including gas storage, the development of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, electricity dispatch modeling, and asset valuation.

      Mr. Fraser holds an MA from Cambridge University.

    • Robert Ineson, Senior Director, IHS CERA

      Robert Ineson
      Robert Ineson
      Senior Director, IHS CERA

      Robert Ineson, IHS CERA Senior Director, leads the IHS CERA North American Natural Gas and Global LNG research activities. Mr. Ineson specializes in analysis of North American gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets, natural gas pricing and transmission, and corporate strategy. Mr. Ineson is a coauthor, with IHS CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin, of The Wall Street Journal op-ed piece "America’s Natural Gas Revolution." Mr. Ineson is a coauthor of the IHS CERA Multiclient Studies Fueling North America’s Energy Future and Rising to the Challenge: Turning North America’s Unconventional Potential into Reality—A Supply Study to 2018. His past work includes the IHS CERA Multiclient Studies Diminishing Returns: The Cost of North American Gas Supply in an Unconventional Era; New Realities, New Risks: North American Gas and Power Scenarios Through 2020; and The Alchemist’s Challenge: Turning the Southern Cone’s Natural Gas into Gold.  His recent research focuses on the unconventional natural gas revolution and on the evolution of global LNG markets.

      Before joining IHS CERA, Mr. Ineson was Director of Market Forecasting at Coral Energy. He previously held analytical positions with Texas Eastern, KN Energy, and Tenneco Energy and as Principal of the gas consulting practice at Resource Data International (RDI). He is the author of RDI’s Convergence of Gas and Power and articles on gas transportation modeling, deregulation, and the North American gas market.

      Mr. Ineson holds a BA from the State University of New York at Albany and an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.

    • Rafael McDonald, IHS CERA Director, Global Gas

      Rafael McDonald
      IHS CERA Director, Global Gas

      Rafael McDonald, IHS CERA Director, Global Gas, specializes in supply and demand fundamentals of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. He focuses on short-term LNG supply/demand balances and provides ongoing LNG market analysis as part of the IHS CERA Global LNG Advisory Service. He is the principal author of the IHS CERA Global LNG Market Briefing. Mr. McDonald is responsible for analyzing the global balances of LNG, ascertaining the effects of supply and demand fluctuations on LNG flows, and evaluating the differentiation between short-term “flexible” deals and long-term contractual obligations as well as covering the broader global gas balancing for the IHS Energy Scenarios. He heads the IHS CERA shipping analysis and contributes to research on project economics. His recent research has focused on the nuclear situation in Japan, the adoption of floating regasification, and the emerging use of LNG in the heavy-duty trucking industry. 

    • John Harris, Director, Global Gas, IHS Energy

      John Harris
      John Harris
      Director, Global Gas, IHS Energy

      John C. Harris, Director, is a member of the IHS Energy Global Gas team and focuses on the Asian gas markets. Mr. Harris was the coordinator for the global gas message within the IHS Global Scenarios to 2030 Multiclient Study. He took on a similar role for the IHS Energy Multiclient Study Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030.

      Mr. Harris has worked extensively in Asia and the Middle East, undertaking due diligence and investment appraisal for both governments and private enterprises. As well as contributing to IHS Energy’s Global LNG Advisory Service, he also provides analysis on a range of energy-related issues in support of IHS CERA’s clients in Asia and presents at both private and public industry forums.

      Prior to joining IHS Mr. Harris spent over a decade with Drewry Shipping Consultants becoming a Director of the company in 1997. Prior to this he worked as a London-based commodity analyst for the Noranda Group. Mr. Harris has been based in Perth, Australia since November 2011, having previously spent six years in Beijing, PR China. He holds a BSc from the University of Birmingham and an MBA from the United Kingdom’s Open University.

    • Wolfgang Moehler, IHS CERA Associate Director, Global Gas

      Wolfgang Moehler
      IHS CERA Associate Director, Global Gas

      Wolfgang Moehler, IHS CERA Associate Director, Global Gas, focuses on global liquefied natural gas (LNG). Mr. Moehler monitors emerging strategic trends, analyzes markets, and is responsible for modeling LNG cost fundamentals. His expertise includes economic analyses and modeling, with a focus on supply-side fundamentals. Mr. Moehler contributes regularly to the Global LNG Market Briefings. He also contributed to the IHS CERA Multiclient Study The Next Prize: Strategic Positioning for a Global Gas Price.  He is the primary contributor to IHS CERA’s analytic application LNG Analytics, which provides critical information and economic analysis of the global LNG business. Mr. Moehler holds an MA from Technische Universität, Muenchen, Germany, and an MA from Vanderbilt University, where he was a University Graduate Fellow.

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