European Energy Scenarios

European Energy Scenarios Advisory Service integrates a wide range of knowledge and experience across IHS and along the value chain. The service draws on IHS CERA European gas and power research, IHS McCloskey coal intelligence and IHS Global Insight macroeconomic and industry sector analysis, as well as IHS upstream expertise in oil and gas resource data services. These resources, in collaboration with IHS Automotive Services, midstream databases and analysis, ensure that IHS CERA European Energy Scenarios is truly an integrated service that is unparalleled in its depth and breadth.

Events of the past few years in the energy industry have demonstrated the impossibility of predicting the future.  

Developments such as

• The commercialization of shale gas
• The eurozone economic crisis and the extreme scale and speed of commodity price cycles
• The Gulf of Mexico oil spill and the tsunami and earthquake in Japan
• The rapid increase in Chinese energy demand
• Gas transit concerns in Europe
• The growing plausibility of electric vehicles and the attention on clean energy technology

The IHS CERA European Energy Scenarios Advisory Service provides members with a framework for thinking about the future for Europe and incorporating as many of these uncertainties as possible.

Benefits:

Members are provided with consistent and detailed market assessments and 25-year country-level projections for the price, supply and demand of all major fuels (natural gas, power, oil, coal, renewables and carbon) for 35 European countries.

All European Energy Scenarios outlooks are framed by the latest integrated IHS Global Scenarios: Global Redesign, Meta(morphosis) and Vortex. The qualitative and quantitative elements of each scenario create a framework for companies and governments to assess key strategic issues and build robust strategies for a range of alternative futures.

Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative—or storyline—and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment and energy on the world stage to 2030.

European Energy Scenarios Advisory Service provides members with

• Outlooks framed by newly created, integrated European gas and power scenarios, with details of the highlights and key issues facing each EU country; the total primary energy demand and fuel mix projection; industrial, domestic, transport, and power sector write-ups; as well as the associated CO2 emissions and risks to the projections
• A description of the demand and supply projections and their drivers
• A set of reports on policy framework and market structure
• Detailed country profiles with data tables covering all fuels (oil, gas, coal, electricity, district heat, biomass, and renewables) and major sectors (industry and five subsectors, residential, commercial/service, agriculture, transport, district heating, and power) out to 2035

As a subscriber you will be able to tap into a comprehensive industry resource that includes these key features:

• An integrated energy demand outlook produced on a country-by-country basis for 35 European countries
• Regular updates:
  • Country profiles updated throughout the year
  • Scenario data deliverables and descriptions updated biannually

• Ease of use:
  • Client access to European Energy Scenarios via myresearch.IHSCERA.com
  • Quick Search: search by Region/Country and by EU aggregate level

• User support:
  • IHS CERA European Energy Scenarios research professionals maintain the data sets and are available to answer questions concerning methodology and content.

European Energy Scenarios members receive

Data Deliverables

• Full energy balances for planning scenario, Global Redesign and two alternative scenarios, Meta and Vortex (by country)
• Key macro drivers (by country and scenario)
• Electricity supply—fuel mix and capacity profile (by country and scenario)
• Gas supply—country-level gas supply outlook (by country and scenario)
• Pricing—oil, coal, European gas contract and indexed prices, electricity generation costs (by scenario)

Written Deliverables
Gas and Power Country Profiles

• PowerPoint presentation with a focus on market and policy environment

Country and Regional Drivers and Description

• Tables describing key drivers for the three scenario on a country or regional basis

Scenario Signposts

• PowerPoint presentation of the global drivers for the three scenarios

European Regional Scenario Implications

• Word document describing the key impacts of the three scenarios on the European energy industry

Country Coverage
Country coverage includes the Country Profiles from the IHS CERA European Gas Watch and Power Watch, as well as write-up on the outlook for the following countries and regions:

European Overview

Country write-ups:

• Belgium
• France
• Germany
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Poland
• Spain
• Turkey
• United Kingdom

Regional write-ups:

• Alpine states—Austria, Switzerland
• Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
• Balkans—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovenia
• Central Europe—Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia
• Nordic states—Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden
• Other—Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal

Energy demand is broken down by main sectors (industry and five subsectors, residential, commercial and service, agriculture, transport, district heating and power) and by fuel (oil, gas, coal, electricity, district heat, biomass and renewables). The modeling therefore captures the sector energy requirements as well as interfuel competition, enabling policy makers and market participants to readily see how future fuel mixes are shaped.

All EES outlooks are framed by the latest integrated IHS CERA European gas and power scenarios: Global Redesign, Meta(morphosis) and Vortex.

The qualitative and quantitative elements of each scenario create a framework for companies and governments to assess key strategic issues and build robust strategies for a range of alternative futures.

The modeling is undertaken on a country-by-country basis using complete data sets, available in Excel, that form another major component of the service. Aggregate data for major regions, including the European Union, are part of the deliverables, enabling members to view the results on a regional basis, as well as in the context of EU policy.

Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainties

• How would a sustained economic slowdown affect energy demand in Europe?
• How will the drivers of liberalization and integration of the European market intersect with the European green agenda and security of supply issues?
• What will be the impact of the EU “20/20/20” targets on gas and power demand in Europe?
• Which new forms of partnership between private companies and public actors at the local, regional and global levels could create new opportunities for market players and change market dynamics?

Gas and Power Market Uncertainties

• What could drive Europe into a scenario of decreasing demand? What would be the price and market implications of such a scenario?
• How will competition for gas resources affect the availability of gas for European markets?
• How will the integration of gas and power markets evolve?
• How might the relative economics of different forms of generation develop?
• How might the strategies of the different market players evolve?

Technology Uncertainties

• Could new carbon-free technologies radically change power generation?
• Could consumer behavior and local initiatives lead to the development of a new decentralized supply infrastructure for power generation and combined heat and power (CHP)?
• What will be the impact of new uses of gas and power (e.g., alternative vehicles) on demand?
• Will smart grid change consumption patterns or open up new opportunities?

The Three Current European Energy Scenarios:

Global Redesign
IHS CERA planning scenario assumes a gradual but continuing economic recovery led by a return to rapid economic growth among the emerging economies of the world, including China and India. The balance of economic and political power continues to shift toward Asia. The economic recovery enables key stakeholders in Europe to reach a compromise on crucial energy and environmental issues which provides enough certainty for investors to move forward with the projects required to meet growing energy needs and to develop the technologies required to fulfill legislated environmental and energy security objectives.

Meta(morphosis)
A return to rapid growth among the emerging economies leads to another spike in world oil prices as well as other commodity prices. Although world oil prices gradually fall, North America and Europe recommit themselves to breaking the link between economic growth and world oil prices. Public and private funding for research and development is increased to address the challenge. At the same time there is a renewed commitment to a more aggressive effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and address clean air and water issues. There is a trade-off in the first ten years of the scenario between economic growth and reducing dependence on imported oil and emissions of GHG and conventional pollutants. In the third decade, however, the investments in new technologies and products pay off as new industries emerge and result in robust economic growth.

Vortex
After a false start to the recovery from the Great Recession, Europe falls into another, although milder, recession, which leaves a lasting impression on the global economy, leading to a period of New Caution and a legacy of aversion to risk. Governments around the world reassert their control of the “commanding heights” of the economy, to the detriment of long-term economic growth and the pace of technological change. Europe spends the better part of a decade making hard spending and investment choices to repair public and private balance sheets. Slow economic growth leads to a world of low energy and commodity prices and an increased emphasis on security and predictability of the price and availability of energy. A more secure economic environment emerges in the third decade, and policy makers and the public become more willing to experiment with new policies and technologies to address challenges that had been put off in the previous decade.

Subscribers to IHS CERA European Energy Scenarios also receive access to our extensive research archives.