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- US Macro Webcast: Hopes and Fears for 2012 - February 2012
US Macro Webcast: Hopes and Fears for 2012
IHS Global Insight is hosting the US Macro Webcast: Hopes and Fears for 2012 on February, 15 2012
The domestic economic news remains encouraging. The fourth quarter was the best quarter for growth in 2011. The labor market has been giving better signals, business and consumer confidence has improved, housing activity is showing tentative signs of life, and private sector debt burdens have become less severe.
How much of the fourth-quarter improvement in growth can be carried into 2012 is open to debate, but domestic indicators are pointing to growth, not recession.
The principal immediate risks to continued growth are external rather than domestic, notably the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, slower growth in China, and the possibility of conflict in the Middle East over Iran's nuclear ambitions. But as the year progresses, domestic policy uncertainties will get more attention as the November elections approach. Crucial deadlines are looming at the beginning of 2013.
Unless action is taken, automatic spending cuts will kick in (because of the supercommittee's failure), the Bush tax cuts will expire, and (if extended for another ten months, as is likely) the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits will expire too.
At our webcast on February 15th, we will review the outlook and risks for the US economy in 2012, and consider the urgent policy decisions that will have to be taken at the end of the year, and which will shape the outlook for 2013 and beyond.
Join us as we explore these and other issues facing the U.S. economy on our next US Macro Webcast on February 15 from 11:00 am to 12:30 pm.
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Nigel Gault, Chief US Economist
Nigel Gault
Chief US Economist
Gault is Chief US Economist, responsible for overseeing all aspects of the IHS macroeconomic forecasts and analyses of the US economy. His expertise in the US economy includes short- and long-term economic outlook, government economic policies, the Federal Reserve, monetary policy, and trade, labor, and consumer market issues.
Gault has more than 20 years' experience in economic analysis and forecasting. He holds an M.A. in economics from Cambridge University and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University.
Patrick Newport, US Economist
Patrick Newport
US Economist
Newport, US Economist, tracks the investment and housing sectors, and serves as Director of Long-Term Forecasting in the US Macroeconomics Group. Prior to joining IHS in 1998, Newport was a senior economist for the Office of the Forecast Council of Washington State. He has a PhD in economics from Harvard University and is an oft-quoted media source on the investment and housing outlook.
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