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Please join Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh, and IHS experts for a special IHS webcast to assess the current global economic climate and explore the political, security, energy, and industry consequences of a possible confrontation with Iran.
This webcast will assess the current global economic climate and explore the political, security, energy and industry consequences of a possible confrontation with Iran.
We will consider a scenario in which Iranian forces lay hundreds of mines in the Strait of Hormuz effectively closing the strait to oil tanker traffic that typically carries about 20% of world liquids demand. We will look at the implications of the international community uniting against Iran and the closing of the channel for extended periods of time.
Webcast Date and Time:
Global Macroeconomic Outlook
Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS
Iran's Decision Calculus
Farid Abolfathi, Senior Director, IHS Risk Center
Description of “What If” Scenario and Security/Military Implications
David Hartwell, Senior Middle East Analyst, IHS Jane's
Impact on the Oil Market--IHS Baseline Outlook and Under Scenario
James Burkhard, Managing Director, Global Oil Group, IHS CERA
Impact on the Global Economy
Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS
Implications for Key Industries
Dr. Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist of IHS and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates (McGraw-Hill). Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial and political developments in over 200 countries.
Behravesh is a "Bloomberg Best" and ranked as one of Bloomberg's Top-10 economists for 2009 and 2010. MarketWatch designated IHS Global Insight "Forecaster of the Year" in 2009 and has bestowed several Forecaster of the Month accolades since. He and his team were designated #1 in USA Today's 2004 ranking of top economic forecasters, and in Reuters' 2004 survey of major currency exchange rate forecasters. In 2008, he was ranked #2 by USA Today. In The Wall Street Journal's annual ranking of US forecasters, Behravesh was ranked #3 (out of 56) for 2006 and was the only forecaster to place in the top six for 2003, 2004 and 2006. As the chief economics spokesperson at IHS, Behravesh is quoted extensively in the media on such topics as the outlook for the US and global economies, exchange rates, the budget deficit, the trade deficit, globalization, country risk and sovereign debt crises. He is cited frequently in leading business publications such as the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Financial Times, USA Today, Investor's Business Daily, Business Week, Newsweek, Fortune, Forbes and US News and World Report. He also regularly appears on national radio and television programs including BBC World Business Report, NBC Nightly News, CNN Headline News, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer (PBS), Fox News, CNBC, Bloomberg TV and Radio, and All Things Considered and Market Place on National Public Radio.
Behravesh was the host of the PBS television series "Inside the Global Economy." In addition to his recent book, he has authored numerous articles in such publications as European Affairs and Credit Week, co-authored two books-Economics U$A (now in its 8th edition) and Microcomputers, Corporate Planning and Decision Support Systems-and was a contributing author to a book on scenario analysis, entitled Learning From the Future. His op-ed pieces have also appeared in the Financial Times, Newsweek International, London Times and the Boston Globe.
Before joining IHS, Behravesh was chief economist for Global Insight (now an IHS company). Prior to that, he was chief international economist for Standard & Poor's. He also held a number of other positions, including president and CEO of Oxford Economics U.S.A. and Group Senior Vice President of WEFA. Early in his career Behravesh worked at the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve. He has been covering the global economy for over 35 years.
Behravesh holds PhD and MA degrees in economics from the University of Pennsylvania, and a BS from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has lived in Europe and the Middle East and is fluent in several languages. He travels extensively to Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Farid Abolfathi, Senior Director of the IHS Risk Center, is responsible for developing and managing IHS country risk products and services. He is also a member of IHS Forecast Steering Committee and International Forecast Council, which are the groups responsible for the coordination and quality control of the company’s macroeconomic forecasts.
Dr. Abolfathi’s areas of specialization include country risk analysis and macroeconomic forecasting. His research experience in these areas spans four decades, including two pioneering econometric model building projects for forecasting OPEC economies for the US Department of State and international trade flows for the US Department of Commerce. In addition, Dr. Abolfathi has served as a consultant to many US government agencies on economic, defense and foreign policy issues and has presented his research findings to intelligence analysts, policy makers and academic audiences at many conferences. His publications include a book on OPEC economies, several chapters in other books on defense spending and foreign policy issues and several articles in academic journals. He is also a frequent contributor to many IHS publications, including the lead chapter in IHS quarterly World Overview.
Dr. Abolfathi speaks several languages and has reading knowledge of several others. His university degrees include an MA and a PhD from Northwestern University and BS from University of Oregon.
David Hartwell is the IHS Jane's senior country risk expert for the Middle East and North Africa (encompassing the Arabian peninsula, the Levant, the Mediterranean African states and the Horn of Africa). He has been at IHS Jane's for seven years, and previously worked at the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence for five years in a number of analytical posts linked to Middle East politics and security.
He has a degree in Political Science and International Studies from the University of Birmingham and an MA in War Studies from King's College London
James Burkhard, Vice President and head of oil market research for IHS CERA, is responsible for the research covering the world and regional crude oil and refined product markets. He also leads the development and delivery of the IHS global scenarios that cover macro-economics, geopolitics and the energy and automotive industries. In addition, his team is responsible for the delivery of IHS CERA integrated products that service the financial industry.
A key part of Mr. Burkhard's work is leading a global team of more than 40 researchers that analyze and assess upstream and downstream market conditions and changes in the oil and gas industry’s competitive environment. A foundation of this work is detailed short- and long-term outlooks for global crude oil and refined products markets that are integrated with outlooks for other energy sources, economic growth, geopolitics and security. Mr. Burkhard’s expertise covers geopolitics, industry dynamics and global oil demand and supply trends.
Previously he led Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030, which encompassed the oil, gas and electricity sectors. He was also the director of the IHS CERA Multiclient Study, Potential versus Reality: West African Oil and Gas to 2020. He is the coauthor of the respected IHS CERA World Oil Watch, which analyzes short- to medium-term developments in the oil market.
In addition to leading IHS CERA oil research, Mr. Burkhard served on the US National Petroleum Council (NPC) committee that provided recommendations on US oil and gas policy to the US Secretary of Energy. He led the team that developed demand-oriented recommendations that were published in the 2007 NPC report, Facing the Hard Truths About Energy. Mr. Burkhard has also testified several times before US Congress on oil and energy issues.
Before joining IHS CERA, Mr. Burkhard was a member of the United States Peace Corps in Niger, West Africa. He directed infrastructure projects to improve water availability and credit facilities. He holds a BA from Hamline University and an MS from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Tony Potter is the Managing Director for the Middle East and India region of IHS Chemical Consulting, based in Dubai. Tony joined CMAI, now an IHS company, in March of 2006, as Director, Olefins Studies - Europe, Middle East & Africa, and also had the responsibility for managing CMAI’s Düsseldorf office. Tony transfered to his current responsibilities in Dubai in 2009.
Tony has thirteen years of petrochemical industry experience combined with over sixteen years of global consulting experience. Prior to joining CMAI, he was an independent consultant specializing in competitive intelligence and economic analysis of the oil, petrochemical and polymer industries. From 1983 until 1996, he was employed by Exxon Chemical Europe, in a range of engineering, operations management and planning management roles.
Tony has a degree in Chemical Engineering from Imperial College of Science and Technology, London.
Nigel Griffiths, Chief Automotive Economist for IHS Automotive, has more than 20 years experience in analyzing and forecasting trends and has been with the company since 1992. Mr. Griffiths pioneered analysis of global platform strategies and predicted the extreme fragmentation now being seen in Europe's auto market..
Griffiths' experience includes complex market segmentation studies, impact assessment of Emissions and CO2 legislation, competitive positioning of OEM's, deep-sea car transportation flows, production strategies, platform consolidation, OEM strategies, end-of-life exposure forecasting and alternative market simulation models.
He holds an MBA from Cardiff Business School, where he specialized in the economics of the motor industry.
This event is open to IHS clients and is invitation only.
If you are an IHS clients and you have not received an invitation to attend this Webcast, please contact your local IHS sales representative to request one.
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