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You can download a replay of this webcast, where our experts discussed the banking risk situation in emerging markets.
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Kazakhstan, Ukraine: Post-banking crisis experiences
On the back of the recent global financial meltdown, the Kazakh and Ukrainian banking sectors were severely shaken up by full-blown local banking crises. Now, about half a decade after and both sectors continue to struggle to regain their footing. We will track where each country is in terms of crisis resolution, what the existing risks are and where we see the sectors in the near-to-medium term.
Emerging Europe: Effects of Eurozone crisis
The banking sectors in Emerging Europe have been facing severe headwinds spilling over from the recent global financial crisis but especially from the subsequent Eurozone sovereign crisis. Some of them even tipped into border-line or full-blown banking crisis. While intrinsic banking sector risk fundamentals have improved for most of the sectors in the region, weak economic recoveries, unstable political environments, and considerable deleveraging from Western European financial groups have brought financial development in the region to a standstill and continue to weigh down on stability.
China: Assessment of risks stemming from shadow banking activities
Risks stemming from mounting shadow banking activities in China are increasingly recognized by both Chinese authorities and market participants. In a major move to tighten up oversight of wayward shadow banking activities, China's banking regulator recently issued the most stringent – to date – regulations restraining banks' off-balance-sheet activities. Although welcomed and already starting to show signs of effectiveness, the regulations are lagging severely the booming nature of the shadow banking activities. Meanwhile, evidence surrounding further distress in the trust industry, especially regarding some wealth management products, continues to emerge. China's authorities are facing a tough challenge of reining in underground financing without harming economic growth prospects, with the price of mistakes likely to be systemic in nature.
Vietnam: Pocket of risk in South-East Asia
More than a year after the major banking sector restructuring initiative was announced by the State Bank of Vietnam, the central bank, the system remains under severe stress. While some weak bank merger deals have been announced, much remains to be done to bring Vietnam's financial sector to sustainable development. Great uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of economic performance and the outlook undermines greater foreign investment participation in the local banking sector restructuring, with authorities struggling to gain market confidence in the reforms they are undertaking. The effective steps towards the resolution of one of the most pressing issues – surging bad debt on banks' balance sheets – could potentially provide much-needed confidence in the banking sector reforms. Yet, given past experiences, there is little certainty that the process will go smoothly this time and it is set to be challenging.
Latin America: State interventionism in the local banking sector
Some Latin American governments in recent years have intensified their influence on their domestic banking sectors to varying degrees, often with the aim of modulating bank lending activities, capturing financial resources, or even unequivocally undermining the stability of certain financial institutions. While financial repression has reached suffocating levels in Venezuela and Ecuador, where governments are overtly hostile to the banking industry, state interventionism is on the rise in Argentina or at incipient stages, albeit relatively contained, in Brazil or Costa Rica.
Brazil: Unsustainable credit boom or sound financial development?
Brazil has experienced virtually uninterrupted, robust expansion of credit over more than 10 years. Although it has mostly taken place in a context of low credit depth and low financial inclusion, this lending boom has also resulted in increasing levels of household indebtedness, a growing role of state-controlled banks in the credit market, a sizeable tightening of the structural liquidity profile of the sector, and the runaway expansion of certain loan segments, such as consumer or mortgage loans, along with inflationary pressures on consumer goods and real estate assets. These and other risk factors have raised red flags over the soundness and sustainability of the credit boom, especially as these concerns have lately been exacerbated by recent government efforts to spur the pace of bank lending to reignite economic growth via regulatory pressure or by boosting state-led credit.
Antonio Timoner-Salva joined IHS Global Insight in 2011 as a Senior Analyst for the Banking Risk Service and is responsible for the Latin American region. Prior to joining IHS Global Insight, Antonio worked as an associate analyst at Taylor-DeJongh, an investment banking firm, and as senior engineer at ACS, an infrastructure group. Antonio holds an MA in International Economics from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS-The Johns Hopkins University) with a focus on International Political Economy and International Monetary Economics. He also holds a Master's Degree in Economic-Financial Management from the Open University of Catalonia and an advanced degree in Civil Engineering from the Technical University of Catalonia. Antonio is fluent in Spanish and German and has proficiency in Italian and Portuguese.
Jan Randolph, Director of Sovereign Risk for IHS Economics & Country Risk, is an experienced international economist and country risk manager.
Mr. Randolph has held positions in a variety of international financial risk management firms in financial services and has over six years of international economics experience with IHS.
He holds graduate degrees from the Universities of London and Bristol.
Tomás joined IHS in September 2012 and is responsible for Eastern Europe and the CIS for the Banking Risk Service. Before joining IHS, Tomás worked for Portugal's Ministry of Economy as an economist in the Office for Strategy and Studies. Prior to that, he worked as a consultant at Deloitte in Lisbon. His academic credentials include a Master's Degree in Monetary and Financial Economics from the University Institute of Lisbon and a Bachelor's Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics. In addition to being fluent in English and Portuguese, Tomás has a good command of Italian and Spanish and has basic skills in French.
Ruta Cereskeviciute is a Senior Economist in IHS Global Insight's Banking Risk Service. She is responsible for analyzing banking sector stability in the markets of emerging Asia. Prior to joining IHS Global Insight in February 2011, Ruta worked as an economist in the corporate banking department of DnB NORD Bankas in Lithuania. Ruta holds an MSc in Economics and Finance from the University of York and a bachelor's degree in Econometrics from Vilnius University in Lithuania.
Brian Lawson joined the company in 2010, following a 31 year career in Investment Banking. His last banking position was as Head of International Debt Syndication at Nomura, having also served as COO of their Global Markets Division. Prior to Nomura, he was Head of Global Fixed Income at ABN AMRO for two years, managing a team of over 1000 worldwide and undertaking significant changes to reconfigure ABN AMRO's business to increase profitability and efficiency.
Earlier in his career, Brian has been Head of Global Fixed Income Syndicate at ABN AMRO and Head of Global Equity Capital Markets at Deutsche Bank AG. He has also held senior roles at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Grenfell.
Brian served on the Board of the International Capital Markets Association for the maximum six year term (2004-10), and ran its Education Committee. He remains a senior advisor to ICMA, and has also served on the Boards of IPMA and AMTE. He obtained an M.A. in Economics from Downing College, Cambridge.
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