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  • Al-Qaeda’s New Course: Examining Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Leadership Credentials and Strategic Direction

Al-Qaeda’s New Course: Examining Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Leadership Credentials and Strategic Direction

IHS Jane's Online Intelligence Briefings 

IHS Jane’s is hosting an Online Intelligence Briefing on Al-Qaeda’s new course: Examining Ayman al-Zawahiri’s leadership credentials and strategic direction May 15, 2012

As we approach the end of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s first year in control of Al-Qaeda, the IHS Defense, Risk and Security consulting team will be presenting findings from a recent study focused on examining his background and leadership credentials, key relationships, alliances and support networks, and strategic priorities and direction.

Ayman al-Zawahiri took over the Al-Qaeda leadership following the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011 and during the most fundamental shift in the Arab world in generations, dramatically altering the terrain of opportunity for the terrorist group and its affiliates across the Middle East region. It was in many ways a moment he must have relished. The Egyptian national had long been among Al-Qaeda’s deepest strategic thinkers, but when it came to setting the network’s strategic course, he always had to defer to Osama bin Laden. He has responded by setting out a new strategy for the network based on his own priorities and vision. Always relatively more focused on creating a new theocratic order in the Arab world than Bin Laden, Zawahiri has made rebuilding Al-Qaeda’s operations and restoring its popularity in the region his central priority, reflected in the fact that almost all his statements since 2011 have focused on the events of the Arab Spring. In order to try to explain Zawahiri’s current strategic goals, and his likely future objectives, it is critical to trace the evolution in Zawahiri’s strategic direction and priorities over the last four decades.

For more details about the content of this 60 minute intelligence briefing, please see the agenda below.

IHS Jane’s Intelligence Briefings are available to Jane’s Intelligence Centre, Jane’s Intelligence Centre Module and Jane’s DS Forecast clients/subscribers for free as part of their product subscription package – please speak to your local IHS Jane’s representative for more details or Register via the IHS Jane’s Client Area (login required).

If you are not an IHS Jane's client, please register using the tab below.

  • Agenda
  • Speakers
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  • Post-conference Downloads
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    • Tuesday, May 15, 2012

      • 15:00 GMT - 16:00 GMT

        Date: 15 May 2012
        Time: 1500 (London) / 10:00 am (New York)
        Duration: 1 hour

        Briefing agenda:

        • Overview of the IHS Study on Zawahiri and our key insights and findings
        • A brief biography of Zawahiri, from his revolutionary youth in Egypt in the 1960s and 1970s to his accession to Al-Qaeda leader in May 2011
        • An assessment of his leadership credentials
        • An examination of his current and future strategic direction and priorities
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    • Tim Pippard, Director of Defense, Security and Risk Consulting, IHS

      Tim Pippard
      Tim Pippard
      Director of Defense, Security and Risk Consulting, IHS

      Mr. Pippard is Director of Defense, Security and Risk Consulting at IHS, based in Washington, DC. In this capacity, he provides defence and intelligence agencies with security, risk and terrorism analysis, and produces security assessments designed to support the operations of private sector clients. Prior to joining the IHS consulting team, Mr. Pippard served as Section Head of Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, the oldest and most established of nine intelligence centres operated by Jane’s Information Group (acquired by IHS in 2007).

      Mr. Pippard specializes in understanding the forces and dynamics shaping the global jihadist threat, and has 10 years of experience examining Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership, assessing the alliances and rivalries between militant groups active in North and East Africa, the Gulf States, South and Southeast Asia, understanding recruitment and radicalization, and analyzing the threat of radiological and nuclear terrorism and the technologies, mechanisms, policies and procedures to counter and mitigate that threat.

      Mr. Pippard is a regular speaker at major international defense and security conferences, including:

      • 'Future Security Environments – Impacts on the Oil and Gas Industry’, 11th Hewlett-Packard Executive Energy Conference, Istanbul, June 21, 2011
      • ‘Cyber Terrorism – Threats, Challenges and Responses’, 3rd Annual Microsoft Public Safety Symposium (PSS), Seattle, WA, March 24, 2011
      • ‘Jihad 2010: trends and drivers’, 2nd Annual Microsoft Public Safety Symposium (PSS), Redmond, WA, January 26, 2010

      Mr Pippard concurrently serves as Assistant Editor of Perspectives on Terrorism (a journal of the Terrorism Research Initiative). He is also the co-editor of Human and Environmental Security: An Agenda for Change (Earthscan September 2005), which he launched at the UN General Assembly in New York in 2005 and served as co-editor of the Peacekeeping Digest in International Peacekeeping (a Taylor and Francis journal) in 2006.

      Mr. Pippard holds an MA in International Peace and Security from King's College, University of London, and a BA (Hons) in Comparative American Studies from the University of Warwick.

    • Jake Abel, Senior Consultant, Defense, Risk and Security, IHS

      Jake Abel
      Senior Consultant, Defense, Risk and Security, IHS

      Jake Abel joined the Defense, Risk and Security consulting team at IHS in December 2011. He has extensive experience working on security, counterterrorism, and political Islam issues. Abel spent the past 10 years serving in various posts with the US Government in both the Legislative and Executive branches, and has routinely briefed senior US policymakers and the Intelligence Community on various terrorism and security matters.

      Most recently, he served as an Intelligence Officer with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) where he was the Agency’s subject matter expert on the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Quds Force (IRGC-QF), which was designated by the US Department of Treasury in 2007 for providing material support to terrorism. Prior to working at DIA, Abel was a Professional Staff Member for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) where he focused on identifying terrorist trends and analysis. Much of his work was included in the Committee’s unclassified report, Al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Islamic Extremist Threat, which examined the evolving nature of the Sunni extremist terrorist movement.

    • Paul Cruickshank, CNN Terrorism Analyst

      Paul Cruickshank
      Paul Cruickshank
      CNN Terrorism Analyst

      Paul Cruickshank is a New York-based investigative reporter specializing in Al Qaeda, a CNN Terrorism Analyst, and an Alumni Fellow at the Center on Law and Security at New York University’s School of Law. He previously worked as an investigative journalist in London, reporting on Al-Qaeda and its European affiliates and was part of the CNN reporting team that covered the 7 July 2005 attacks in London and the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

      Cruickshank was part of CNN's on-air breaking news coverage immediately after news broke of the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011 and also covered the 2010 Mumbai style plot against Europe, the October 2010 package bomb plot and the Christmas Day 2009 plot to bomb an airliner over Detroit, and the November 2008 Mumbai attacks in India.

      Cruickshank has written about Al-Qaeda and Islamist groups for a variety of international publications and news outlets including The New Republic, The Guardian, Newsweek, The Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, The Independent, Die Welt, The National Post, The New York Daily News, The Australian, IHS Jane’s, and Studies in Conflict and Terrorism.

    • Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings

      Bruce Riedel
      Bruce Riedel
      Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings

      Bruce Riedel joined Brookings in 2006 after 30 years service at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) including postings overseas in the Middle East and Europe. Riedel was a senior advisor on South Asia and the Middle East to the last four presidents of the United States in the staff of the National Security Council at the White House. He was a negotiator at the Camp David, Shepherdstown and Wye River Israeli-Arab summits and organized President Bill Clinton’s trip to India in 2000.

      In January 2009, President Barack Obama asked him to chair a review of American policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan, the results of which the president announced in a speech on March 27, 2009. In 2011, he served as an expert advisor to the prosecution of al Qaeda terrorist Omar Farooq Abdulmutallab in Detroit. In December 2011, Prime Minister David Cameron asked him to advise the United Kingdom’s National Security Council on Pakistan.

      Riedel is the author of The Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the global Jihad (2011 hardcover and 2012 paperback) and The Search for al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology and Future (2008 hardcover and 2010 paperback). He is a contributor to Which Path to Persia: Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran (2009) and The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East (2011).

  • Date: 15 May 2012
    Time: 15.00 (London) / 10.00 (New York)
    Duration: 1 hour


    Please Note: If you are a Jane's Intelligence Centre, Intelligence Centre Module or DS Forecast subscriber/client, you can participate in this Online Seminar for free. Please register directly using the registration form found in the Client Area (login required).


    Non-customer prices

    IHS Jane's Online Intelligence Briefing -

    Fee per delegate - $299 or £199 (+ VAT for UK customers)

    Registration for the briefing includes live participation in the above seminar and access to the archive recording after the event (PowerPoint and audio).


    Registration

    If you would like to participate in this seminar (but are not a Jane's Intelligence Centre/Module or DS Forecast customer) please register using the link below (secure online order form), or calling +44 (0) 20 8700 3781 or emailing Raf Kotowicz.

    Register for this event

  • The recordings of all IHS Jane’s Intelligence Briefings are available to download and view from the IHS Jane's Client Area (client login required) within 48hr of the seminar taking place.

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