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Energy Strategy: IHS CERA

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  • Energy Strategy: IHS CERA
  • Multiclient Studies
  • Fueling North America's Energy Future

Energy Strategy: IHS CERA

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Fueling North America's Future

The focus of the Fueling North America's Energy Future study is to understand the potential consequences of two major developments and to offer a forum for fact-based rational discussion and debate.

  • Overview
    & Benefits
  • Key
    Questions
  • Deliverables
  • The first development is the proposed climate change and related legislation. The second is the unconventional natural gas revolution, its potential impact on the spectrum of energy choices in a carbon constrained world and its relation to the drive for renewable energy. The study will provide perspective and insight on the quandaries and challenges that power companies and energy-intensive industries face in making choices about fuel selection and future investments.

    The North American revolution in unconventional natural gas ranks as the most significant energy innovation so far this century, and because of its scale, requires reassessment of expectations for energy development. It has the potential, at least, of a paradigm shift in the fueling of North America's energy future.

    This report, Fueling North America's Energy Future, seeks to address the impact of the shale gale on the energy system. It aims to provide a framework for understanding the potential impact of the unconventional gas revolution, a common basis for dialogue on the issues raised by it, and a context for fitting the changed outlook for natural gas into the discussion about power generation choices and reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs).

    The unconventional revolution shifts natural gas from a constrained energy resource to an abundant one. In so doing it raises many questions. This study addresses six sets of questions that are key to the energy future:

    • How large is the gas resource base opened up by the shale gas revolution, and what are the financial costs and the footprint of its development?
    • What factors could limit the realization of the potential of unconventional natural gas?  What are the environmental issues associated with its development?
    • Does this greater abundance of natural gas mean that gas prices are now on a lower and more stable trend, or is this the bottom of a cycle?
    • What are the growth markets for natural gas, and in particular, what are the prospects in transportation?
    • What are the growth prospects in electric power? Under what constraints—technical, economic, and political—do electric power providers operate, and how might the changed fuel supply picture affect investment decisions that utilities make and regulators approve?
    • How significant a role can natural gas play in achieving reductions in GHG emissions along with such other options as nuclear energy, renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage (CCS)?

    Members of Fueling North America's Future receive:

    • Final report
    • Compendium of additional research
    Who uses the service? How?
    Energy producers: Oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables
    • To align current and planned investments with proposed policies and consumer needs
    Major energy end users
    • To determine if the costs of achieving policy goals align with customer needs
    • To evaluate vulnerability to changes in cost structure
    Power and gas utilities
    • To determine if proposed regulation and investments will meet the customer needs
    • To anticipate corollary investments
    • To understand the full cost and impact of clean energy mandates
    Policy makers  and NGOs
    • To gauge industry response to the proposed initiatives if enacted
    • To consider flexible options for policy development

    Fueling North America's Future gives members insight into:

    • New and existing gas supply options
    • Renewables and energy efficiency
    • Regulatory interface and fuel mix
    • Non-climate environmental issues and decarbonization of fossil fuel power generation
  • Fueling North America's Future focuses on three primary policy issues: 

    • What is the potential for natural gas, particularly in light of the promise of unconventional supplies and the new considerations brought about by the climate change debate?
      • What is the overall supply potential for North American gas?
      • How large is the unconventional gas potential and what are the major uncertainties regarding this supply—e.g., depletion rates, land use, and water impacts?
      • What is the outlook for natural gas costs, both conventional and unconventional, and what does this imply for natural gas prices?
      • What is the outlook for other sources, such as Arctic gas and offshore?
      • How will unconventional gas affect other parts of the gas value chain such as liquefied natural gas (LNG)?
      • Will natural gas become a more significant transportation fuel?
      • What role is natural gas likely to play in the future power generation mix?
    • What are the impacts and the timing of carbon capture and storage (CCS)?
      • What is the timeline for CCS technology?
      • To what degree and on what timeline will it alter the economics of carbon-based fuel sources?
      • How important is CCS to the viability of fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal?
    • What are the potential cost and timing dimensions of noncarbon energy technologies such as renewables and nuclear, and of energy efficiency?
      • How much current generation will electric utilities have to retire, and what are the cost implications?
      • What are the enabling infrastructure needs (such as transmission investments), and how are these secured?
      • What is the timing and role of renewable energy options and efficiency in achieving a low-cost abatement strategy?
      • Will electric power become a significant transportation fuel?
  • Fueling North America's Energy Future Table of Contents

    IHS CERA Fueling North America's Future held its final workshop in February 2010. Clients may subscribe to the study to receive the final report. Subscribers also receive access to IHS CERA background research into these topics:

    • Chapter I: The 'Shale Gale' - A Game Changer for the Natural Gas Industry
    • Chapter II: Environmental Issues Associated with Shale Gas Development
    • Chapter III: New Market Supply Dynamics
    • Chapter IV: North American Natural Gas Demand
    • Chapter V: Natural Gas in Transportation
    • Chapter VI: The Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation: How Will It Change?

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