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Energy Strategy: IHS CERA

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  • European Gas

Energy Strategy: IHS CERA

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European Gas

IHS CERA European Gas Advisory Service integrates our fuel price and macroeconomic outlooks by country with analysis of the region’s fundamental drivers, changing supply characteristics and consumer demand.

Industry experience combined with energy modeling and research capabilities provide strategic insight into issues such as pricing, supply, demand, flexibility (pipeline, storage, liquefied natural gas), gas hub liquidity, infrastructure, policy and competitive fuel analysis. The European Gas service provides integrated knowledge of geopolitical, environmental, technological, economic, regulatory and stakeholder issues that influence the region's gas market.

  • Overview
    & Benefits
  • Deliverables
  • Future
    Research
  • Recent
    Research
  • Research
    Expertise
  • European Gas helps unravel the complexities of the European gas market so you can make informed business decisions. Our experts support cutting-edge knowledge of market forces and political developments with comprehensive data to give you the most current, accurate picture of the European gas landscape, providing insight into the critical factors that will contribute to success in the industry.

    As a subscriber, you will be able to:

    Receive the latest on fundamentals:

    • European Gas Watch
    • European Gas Supply-Demand Tracker
    • Competitive Fuel Price Report
    • European Gas Hub Tracker
    • European Storage Watch

    Receive our strategic reports on the Big Questions:

    • Will the sustained absence of demand growth in the European market continue?
    • What will be the impact of contract renegotiations on the European gas market?
    • How will renewable technologies such as biogas and renewable heat impact the market?

    Download key industrial statistics from our Data Center:

    • Continually updated historical figures and our outlooks for price, supply and demand
    • Heating- and cooling-degree days
    • Storage Tracker-gas storage utilization
    • Hub Tracker-key metrics for the traded market hubs
    • Country profiles

    Call our research staff to interpret complex data and find answers to uncommon questions

    Who uses the service? How?
    Regional industry clients (corporate leaders, executives and policymakers) To understand long-term supply and demand trends in the European gas market, as determined by market fundamentals and geopolitical issues
    End-users To understand how industry trends impact prices
    Service providers  To understand the needs of producing firms in the sector
    Financial institutions (investors)  To understand investment opportunities

    Benefits

    European Gas Advisory Service enables you to:

    • Understand the competitiveness of gas versus coal and oil products.
    • Improve understanding of difficult-to-research European storage markets by exploring flexibility requirements.
    • Anticipate new pipeline and LNG supply investment opportunities.
    • Evaluate the outlook for gas price dynamics and the development of different pricing mechanisms: spot markets, prices linked to oil or other fuels and innovative pricing options. 
    • Assess the opportunities and risks created by changes in European energy regulation and examine the impact on European gas supply and pricing. 
    • Weigh the trade-offs between environmental, energy efficiency and security goals.
  • Subscribers to European Gas receive: 

    Fundamentals reports

    • European Gas Watch:
      • Annual
      • Insight on key business trends and critical issues affecting the European gas market
    • Long-term outlook to 2035:
      • Annual
      • Demand at national level and national supply balances for 35 European countries
    • European Supply and Demand Tracker:
      • Monthly
      • Market fundamentals forecasts
      • Commentary on short-term to medium-term market drivers
      • Five year outlook
    • Competitive Fuel Price Report:
      • Quarterly
      • Compares competitiveness of gas versus coal, oil and oil products (including prices and macroeconomic data)
      • Price forecasts for gas including 8 traded markets and 7 oil-linked contracts, oil and coal
    • European Gas Hub Tracker:
      • Quarterly
      • Analyzes traded volumes and liquidity at main trading points
      • Provides insight into regulatory and other changes affecting liquidity
    • Retail Price Tracker:
      • Quarterly summary of end-user prices in key markets
    • European Storage Watch and national flexibility reports:
      • Annual
      • Analyzes storage utilization and outlook to 2035
      • Reports on national storage balance-existing storage, planned new storage and requirement for storage and national equipment for long- and short-term flexibility
    • Strategic reports:
      • Private Reports and Decision Briefs based on research driven by the IHS CERA Big Questions. Corporate leaders, investors, policymakers, and energy users rely on our answers to these questions to guide decisions that shape the industry's strategic future.
    • Data center:
      • Country-level historical gas demand and supply with outlook to 2035 (annual)
      • Country-level historical gas demand and supply with five year outlook (quarterly)
      • European level and major consumer historical gas demand, supply and price five year outlook (monthly)
      • Wholesale price outlooks to 2035 (monthly)
      • Country-level natural gas end-user prices (bi-annual)
      • Heating and cooling degree-days (quarterly)
      • Storage Tracker analysis of gas storage utilization (monthly)
      • Country profiles (annual)
        • Analysis of key market and regulatory developments
        • Detailed data on gas production, consumption, imports and exports
        • Changes in supply and demand fundamentals
        • Historic retail price evolution
        • Environmental policies
    • Event invitations:
      • Exclusive client-IHS CERA expert gatherings
      • Seats at IHS CERA spring and fall Executive Roundtables
      • CERAWeek, IHS CERA Executive Conference, held annually in Houston - for an additional fee
  • Subscribers receive Private Reports and Decision Briefs based on research driven by the Advisory Service's Big Questions including:

    • Will the downward trend in demand growth in mature gas European markets continue?
    • What is the future value of natural gas relative to oil, or coal?
    • Will natural gas continue to have a primary role in power generation?
    • Can a single continental European hub emerge? How will liquidity develop in continental European spot markets?
    • How are the credit crisis and the economic downturn changing the European gas industry?
    • Can Europe achieve its goal of increased supply security? 
    • What could be the impact of potential shale gas plays on the continent?
  • Subscribers also receive access to our extensive research archives, available in English, Russian and Chinese, including:

    • New Gas for Old Grids: Biogas and biomethane
      Biogas offers several advantages that could contribute to its rapid growth in Europe: it can use locally produced feedstocks, help reduce Europe’s waste problem, and be upgraded to biomethane for injection into an existing gas grid. With waste feedstocks, the economics of biomethane appears attractive relative to other renewables.
    • Are US LNG Exports in the Public Interest? A First Look at the DOE-Commissioned Study on Macroeconomic Effects
      A US Department of Energy sponsored study by NERA Economic Consulting concluded that the US economy would benefit unambiguously from allowing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, with no basis for DOE to deny LNG export applications on the grounds that exports would not be in the public interest.  While in broad agreement with the conclusion, IHS CERA believes the broad resource base for North American natural gas is able to accommodate significant demand growth without requiring higher prices to elicit new supply.
    • Biomass and Cogeneration: Travel Partners on the Road to Decarbonization
      Solid biomass is expected to provide more than half of Europe’s growth in renewable heat to 2020. The target is challenging, but faster growth of combined heat and power generation would help to meet it and use the resource efficiently. The new Energy Efficiency Directive should bring greater focus to the planning needed to achieve this.
    • Europe’s Gas Market: Caught Between Opposing Forces
      The European gas market is caught between opposing forces: a weak economy and tight supply. Continuing economic doldrums lower gas demand, but supply is soft because of declining indigenous production and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries. Tight supply is likely to outlast weak demand in the near term, putting upward pressure on traded prices by 2014 at the latest; but price strength may dissipate if LNG supply surges as expected by 2015.
    • Global Fuel Price Differentials: How Long Can They Last?
      In the Global Energy Watch, we examine how energy markets will respond to fuel price differentials, such as divergent benchmark crudes, the growing gap between regional natural gas prices, and the large spread between global oil and North America natural gas prices. The implications involve billions of dollars of investment and fundamental shifts in energy production and use that will play a pivotal role in the evolution of energy markets over the coming decades.
    • Expand All +
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    • Fabien Roques, IHS CERA Senior Director

      Fabien Roques
      Fabien Roques
      IHS CERA Senior Director

      Fabien Roques, IHS CERA Director, European Power, leads the IHS CERA research on European power and carbon dioxide (CO2) markets. His expertise includes market design and regulation, restructuring, and valuation work for corporate and government clients.

      Mr. Roques has particular expertise in using quantitative models to analyze strategic decisions such as investment under uncertainty. He has worked on numerous tailored consulting assignments for clients, including major European utilities, financial investors, and European regulators. Before joining IHS CERA Mr. Roques was with the International Energy Agency, where he contributed to a range of studies including the World Energy Outlook energy and CO2 emission scenarios. Previously as an independent consultant and a researcher at the Cambridge University Electricity Policy Research Group, he worked on a range of projects related to market design, investment valuation, and portfolio optimization in European power markets.

      Mr. Roques holds an MSc from the Ecole Centrale Lyon and an MPhil and PhD from the University of Cambridge.

    • Jean Marie Chevalier, IHS CERA Senior Associate

      Jean Marie Chevalier
      IHS CERA Senior Associate
      IHS CERA Senior Associate, is also Professor of Economics at the University of Paris-Dauphine where he is responsible for the Centre de Géopolitique de l’Energie et des Matières Premières. He has extensive experience in developing energy policies and strategies for energy companies. He has worked in the corporate planning department of Elf Aquitaine (now Total) and in the energy department of the World Bank. Previously he taught industrial organization and energy economics at the universities of Algiers, Rabat, and Grenoble. Dr. Chevalier has published numerous books and articles on a wide range of energy issues including fuel choice, geopolitics, and regulation of the gas and power industries. He is the author of The New Oil Stake; Energy Economics; and Les Grandes Batailles de l’Energie. Dr. Chevalier is a member of the Economic Analysis Council under the French prime minister. He is on the Board of Directors of Nexans a world leading cable manufacturer. He has been awarded the Légion d’Honneur for his academic career. Dr. Chevalier attended the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris and received a PhD in economics from the University of Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne.
    • Erkki Adourian, Associate

      Erkki Adourian
      Associate
      Bio coming soon
    • Andy Barrett, IHS CERA Senior Associate

      Andy Barrett
      IHS CERA Senior Associate
      Andy Barrett, IHS CERA Senior Associate, has well-established expertise in the international energy industry, in particular in areas of international business development and joint ventures, new market strategies, gas and power issues, and petrochemicals. With IHS CERA, Mr. Barrett has been active since 2001 with the Global Gas, European Gas, European Power and Global LNG teams and has led or participated in a number of projects involving gas and power market development strategies and national energy policy. Mr. Barrett has particular expertise in the gas value chain and associated market and business models. Alongside his work with IHS CERA, he has held positions as chairman of companies in the gas technology and renewable energy arena.

      Prior to joining IHS CERA Mr. Barrett was Executive Vice President and Board Member of BG International, where he was responsible for the company's overall strategy and portfolio, as well as holding specific responsibilities for new gas and power market development and exploration and production investments in South America, East Asia, the Middle East, Italy, Ireland and UK power. Previously he was Vice President of Strategy and Development for BG International Downstream, where he led the group's worldwide development of gas transmission and distribution, power generation and associated marketing and trading activities. Previously, he headed up New Business Development for BG in South America, with successful investments across the energy chain and participation in consortium projects and local partnerships. Earlier he was with Shell in a variety of business areas including downstream oil, petrochemicals, trading and gas and an assignment as Managing Director for Criterion Catalyst Company, an industry-leading global joint venture.

      Mr. Barrett holds a PhD in chemistry from Oxford University and a qualification with the Institute of Chemical Engineers, and he attended the Wharton Business School Advanced Management Program.
    • Michael Chettrit, IHS CERA Research Associate

      Michael Chettrit
      Michael Chettrit
      IHS CERA Research Associate

      Michael Chettrit, IHS CERA Research Associate with the European Gas and Power team, focuses on modeling and strategic analysis. His expertise includes gas price outlooks, gas market liquidity, power plants flexibility, and renewable intermittency. Prior to joining IHS CERA, he held positions in an oil and gas company and a renewable research institute. 

      Mr. Chettrit holds an engineering degree from University Paris-Sud and a Master’s degree from University Paris Dauphine.

    • Dan Clay, IHS CERA Director, European Gas, Power, and Renewables

      Dan Clay
      IHS CERA Director, European Gas, Power, and Renewables

      Dan Clay, IHS CERA Director of European Gas, Power and Renewables, is an expert in market modeling for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific regions. With more than 15 years of modeling and energy experience, Mr. Clay specializes in fundamentals analysis, price outlooks and energy risk management and in developing corporate strategies for the broad range of energy markets. At IHS he works across functions and regions, with responsibilities for integrated gas and power modeling, a variety of consulting projects, and research on multiple energy markets. 

      Prior to joining IHS, Mr. Clay held a number of posts at Centrica plc in trading and strategy, including Head of Power, Coal and Carbon Fundamentals for Centrica Energy, and Head of Hedging for British Gas Business. Previously he was a bandwidth trading and risk management consultant for cable and wireless, and was with BG plc with responsibilities for strategy and UK energy. Earlier with Eastern Energy (now part of E.ON Energie AG) his focus was energy trading. 

      Mr. Clay holds a BS (Hons.) from Keele University, United Kingdom.

    • Sylvain Cognet, Associate Director

      Sylvain Cognet
      Associate Director
      Bio coming soon
    • Alun Davies, IHS CERA Director with the European Gas and Power team

      Alun Davies
      IHS CERA Director with the European Gas and Power team

      Alun Davies, IHS CERA Director with the European Gas and Power team, focuses on market fundamentals and quantitative modeling. His expertise includes price forecasting, market strategy and fundamentals analysis, with experience in climate policy and corporate strategy. Prior to joining IHS CERA, Mr. Davies held a variety of posts with Centrica plc, including in long-term strategy, power modeling, trading, and trade strategy. He also has experience within the pharmaceutical sector, having worked in research and development for GlaxoSmithKline before joining Centrica. 

      Mr. Davies holds a first class Masters degree from the University of Oxford.

    • Federico Ferrario, IHS CERA Associate Director, European Gas and Power

      Federico Ferrario
      IHS CERA Associate Director, European Gas and Power
      Federico Ferrario, IHS CERA Associate Director, European Gas and Power, specializes in European policies for emissions reduction and energy efficiency, as well as long-term power supply projections. His expertise includes quantitative analysis of the supply and demand balance of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), as well as the assessment of the impacts of environmental legislation on the European power business. He is author of several research and analyses projects including assessing the implications of the EU ETS and the European Union’s 2020 climate and energy targets on the power sector. Mr. Ferrario has been responsible for the power sector analysis and modeling in the IHS CERA Multiclient Studies Strategies for a Leaner Europe, evaluating the extent and consequences of electricity-saving potentials in end uses, and The Art of Foresight with the development of energy scenarios for the European countries. He regularly contributes to the European Power Watch as well as other research reports, Roundtables, and consulting projects.   Mr. Ferrario holds a BA from Bocconi University, Milan, and an MSc from Imperial College, London.
    • Etienne Gabel, IHS CERA Associate Director

      Etienne Gabel
      IHS CERA Associate Director
      Etienne Gabel, IHS CERA Associate Director, European Power and Carbon Markets, specializes in the analysis of regulatory and market developments in power supply and emissions allowance trading. On the carbon markets front Mr. Gabel currently leads the continued development of IHS CERA’s model of the EU Emission Trading Scheme, a fundamentals-based model that projects the future price of EU Allowances, the emissions abatement required for compliance under the scheme, the allowance trading and banking dynamics, and the implications of policy initiatives. For the power sector Mr. Gabel has been involved in the projections of wholesale electricity prices; the outlook for power generation and transmission; and the analysis of operational and investment strategies for utilities, financial institutions, and other market participants. Mr. Gabel holds an MSc in Statistics from Stanford University and a BSc from Northwestern University.
    • Susanne Hounsell, Associate

      Susanne Hounsell
      Susanne Hounsell
      Associate

      Susanne Hounsell, IHS CERA Associate, European Power, specializes in renewable energy and clean power technologies. Her expertise includes economic and regulatory assessments, supported by in-depth data analysis and market modeling, as well as strategy and policy design for sustainable energy. Prior to joining IHS CERA Ms. Hounsell was a consultant in the Sustainable Energy team at IPA Energy + Water Economics, where she led and contributed to a wide variety of custom client studies in the international energy sector. Key projects included the integration of intermittent generation in the European power systems, economic effects of offshore wind supply chain development, and global market size projections for carbon capture and storage and other clean energy technologies. Ms. Hounsell has previously worked with various industry bodies such as Euroheat & Power and the World Alliance for Decentralized Energy. She holds a BA from the University of Maastricht and an MSc from the University of Edinburgh.

    • Elsa Kiener, IHS CERA Associate

      Elsa Kiener
      IHS CERA Associate
      Elsa Kiener, IHS CERA Associate, European Power, specializes in the European power market, including the analysis of market fundamentals. She is in charge of the IHS CERA European Power Data Center, the short-term outlook of power supply and demand, and IHS CERA’s tracker of European hydro reservoir levels. She also follows the evolution of Nordic power markets and contributes to the IHS CERA European Power Watch and IHS CERA European Power Market Briefings. Current research areas cover power transmission in Europe. Prior to joining IHS CERA Ms. Kiener worked at AREVA T&D in the area of software solutions for the deregulated power sector, analyzing balancing markets in Europe. Ms. Kiener holds a master’s degree from l’Ecole Supérieure d’Electricité (Supélec) and an MSc from the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm.
    • Steven Knell, IHS CERA Associate

      Steven Knell
      IHS CERA Associate

      Steven Knell, IHS CERA Associate, European Power, is a specialist in global climate change politics. His principal expertise lies in analysis of environmental regulatory frameworks and their impacts on the energy market landscape. Dr. Knell's current research and consulting work focuses upon the European Emissions Trading Scheme and strategic assessments of European carbon price formation.

      Prior to joining IHS CERA Dr. Knell worked in the IHS Global Insight World Markets Energy service. In this capacity he provided daily analysis of Asian oil, gas, and power market developments. Dr. Knell has also previously served in the Canadian Federal Ministry of Environment and with the United Nations Development Program in Croatia. He holds a BA (Hons) from the University of Kent at Canterbury, an MSc in International Relations from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in International Relations from the University of Sussex. He is based in the London office.

    • Kevin Le Grand, Research Analyst II

      Kevin Le Grand
      Research Analyst II

      Bio coming soon

    • Marina Littlewood, Research Associate

      Marina Littlewood
      Research Associate

      Marina Littlewood, IHS CERA Research Associate with the European Power team, focuses on European power market fundamentals. Her expertise focuses especially on Eastern Europe, with a particular emphasis on the Balkans. Ms. Littlewood also covers price and liquidity developments in European power markets, and mergers and acquisitions transactions in the European utilities sector. Prior to joining IHS CERA she held positions in corporate finance and private equity. Ms. Littlewood holds a double degree in Finance and Economics, summa cum laude, from Drexel University.

    • Deborah Mann, IHS CERA Director, European Gas and Power

      Deborah Mann
      IHS CERA Director, European Gas and Power

      Deborah Mann, IHS CERA Director, European Gas and Power, is an expert in European power, energy business strategy development and market projections. Ms. Mann joined IHS Global Insight European Energy Services in 2007, managing a team producing European power market analysis in both subscription products and consulting. She also had responsibility for the European Energy and Environmental Outlook, covering the projections to 2030 for all energy sectors in 31 European countries. Her previous experience includes 15 years in the oil refining sector working for BP, carrying out various techno-economic appraisal and strategic studies and for M W Kellogg, where she set up and ran a refinery planning group. She also spent nine years in the electronics sector tracking and developing forecasts for global and regional markets. A chartered chemical engineer, Ms. Mann is a member of the Institution of Chemical Engineers and of the Energy Institute. 

      She holds MA and MEng degrees from Cambridge University and an MS from Kingston University.

    • Barrie Murray, Senior Associate

      Barrie Murray
      Senior Associate
      Bio coming soon
    • Riccardo Quercioli, Associate

      Riccardo Quercioli
      Associate
      Bio coming soon.
    • Tom Tindall, IHS CERA Director

      Tom Tindall
      IHS CERA Director

      Tom Tindall, IHS CERA Director, is an energy economist specializing in regulatory, policy design and completive analysis in the power sector. His experience includes work for energy companies, policymakers, and regulators on the implications of market and incentive design. Prior to joining IHS, Mr Tindall was with UK-based economic consultancy Oxera, providing advice on low-carbon incentive design, retail market intervention, and transmission policy. Mr Tindall holds a MEng from the University of Oxford, and an MSc from the London School of Economics.

    • Philippe Vassilopoulos, Associate Director

      Philippe Vassilopoulos
      Philippe Vassilopoulos
      Associate Director

      Philippe Vassilopoulos, IHS CERA Associate Director, European Power, specializes in the European wholesale power and gas markets. His expertise includes price formation mechanisms, price and demand modelling, market design, regulations, and market surveillance. Before joining CERA Mr. Vassilopoulos was Chief Economist at EPEX Spot, where he also served as Market Surveillance Officer, and was previously an analyst and project manager at Powernext. Mr. Vassilopoulos also carried out applied research on price signals and investment incentives in the European electricity markets for the Commission de Regulation de l’Energie. He holds a master’s degree and a PhD from the University of Paris-Dauphine.

    • Tracy Wilkinson, IHS CERA Associate Director, European Power

      Tracy Wilkinson
      IHS CERA Associate Director, European Power

      Tracy Wilkinson, IHS CERA Associate Director, European Power, is a specialist in the European and Australasian power markets. She is responsible for the projections of short- and long-term power prices and generation for European power markets and also works on a variety of short-term projects. Current research areas include modeling European power prices, transmission investment, and transmission pricing.

      Recent analysis and reports include European Power Market Fundamentals 2009–15 and for the IHS CERA European Power Roundtable held in London.  Ms. Wilkinson joined IHS CERA as part of the merger between IHS and Global Insight. At Global Insight she also worked in the European Power team projecting short- and long-term power prices, demand, and generation. Prior to joining Global Insight in London Ms. Wilkinson was based in New Zealand, where she worked on a variety of projects for the New Zealand and Australian markets and worked for M-Co, the New Zealand electricity market operator. Ms. Wilkinson holds a BCom (Hons) and a BE (Hons) from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

    • Christian Winzer, IHS CERA Senior Research Analyst

      Christian Winzer
      IHS CERA Senior Research Analyst

      Christian Winzer, IHS CERA Senior Research Analyst, is focused on European power and carbon dioxide (CO2) markets. Prior to joining CERA he has been working at the Department of Energy and Climate Change on the Design of Capacity Mechanisms as well as for the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin on the regulation of transmission networks. Mr Winzer holds a Masters Degree in industrial engineering from Karlsruhe University and a PhD from the University of Cambridge.

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