IHS Global Scenarios

The IHS Global Scenarios Framework is a set of three distinct scenarios. Each scenario provides a qualitative narrative and quantitative analyses addressing possible futures for economic growth and policy, politics, trade, security, technology, the environment and energy resources on the world stage to 2030.

The Global Scenarios Framework is the cornerstone of our Global Scenarios Advisory service, and our range of industry focused scenarios services, covering:

• Energy
• Automotive

These drill downs examine how industries will evolve within the context of each scenario. Projections for each industry will include quantitative data sets, qualitative descriptions or narratives of key trends, and the implications for organisations.

Through ongoing quarterly updates, the IHS Global Scenarios product line helps senior managers and strategic planners to:

• Develop strategies 
• Test specific decisions against alternative futures 
• Monitor signposts 
• Identify opportunities for strategic advantage

Access the Collective Insight of IHS

With contributions from experts across IHS, IHS Global Scenarios products and services provide a broad-based, in-depth understanding of the key issues and challenges facing the global business community.

What are the big questions shaping the future?

During a series of workshops in 2009, over 250 IHS clients representing a broad range of industries and perspectives identified their most significant uncertainties about the future of the global economy, politics, security and energy resources. This feedback was distilled into three fundamental questions for global business today:

• Will major powers co-operate to enhance global prosperity, or will co-operation fail?
• How quickly, and to what degree, will the world shift to a low-carbon economy?
• How successful will major powers be in avoiding a recurrence of economic turbulence and a weakening of the global economy in the coming decade and beyond?

Examining Three Plausible Future Scenarios:

At the heart of the Global Scenarios Framework are three distinct future scenarios that explore alternative outcomes to these big questions.

Global Redesign: The IHS Planning Case

• Anxious transition
  • From G8 to G20
  • From high debt to sustainable debt in developed economies
  • From little greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limits to more
  • From fragmented efforts to slow nuclear proliferation to more effective co-operation
  • From young to old populations
• Co-operation on security, but only after confronted with the abyss of hyper-nuclear proliferation
• Pragmatic deal making on global GHG emissions policy
• Shift in economic and political power to emerging markets, particularly in Asia

Metamorphosis

• Innovation sparks the beginning of a transformation to a low-carbon energy future
• Transformation slows economic growth early, then accelerates it late in the scenario period
• The great irony: a lower carbon economy, but less secure because of nuclear proliferation
• Effective limits on GHG are only achieved by a group of like-minded countries; no effective global scheme

Vortex

• A second global economic crisis occurs just a few years after the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009
• Confidence in global markets wanes
• Political instability grows
• Fear and uncertainty force leaders to become more insular and less interested in global co-operation on environmental and economic issues
• Long slowdown in global economic growth

IHS CERA's Research Advisory Services provide continuous analysis and insight into energy markets, industry trends, and strategies that have a direct impact on clients. Our services, which integrate key energy segments and regions, include:

China Energy
Providing expert insight, backed by independent data from our comprehensive market outlooks, so clients can create winning strategies in China’s fast-changing energy markets

European Gas
Delivering analysis of the region’s fundamental drivers, changing supply characteristics, and evolving consumer demand based on our country-specific fuel price and macroeconomic outlooks

European Power
Integrating our power, carbon and natural gas market outlooks by country to provide insights into the region’s fundamental drivers, supply characteristics and changing consumer demands

Global Liquefied Natural Gas
Leveraging our global and regional natural gas market expertise to offer incisive research on the evolving forces driving the LNG industry, including supply issues and changing demand patterns

Global Oil
Combining our global crude oil and refined products market outlooks with insight into the industry’s driving forces

Global Steam Coal
Joining IHS McCloskey® coal expertise with IHS CERA’s globally-recognised knowledge and insight across fuels and regions to provide an independent analysis of the risks and opportunities in the global steam coal market

Latin America Energy
Helping clients understand the interplay of geopolitical, environmental, economic, regulatory, technological and stakeholder-related issues that influence the supply, demand and price of energy in Latin America

Russian and Caspian Energy
Offering expert insight, backed by independently compiled and verified data from our comprehensive market outlooks, so clients can create winning strategies in the region

CERAView Energy Services
Providing authoritative analysis of energy industry fundamentals and their impact on the global demand for energy services

CERAView Institutional Investor International
Synthesising our integrated international oil, gas and power market analyses into a useful format for institutional investors

CERAView Institutional Investor North America
Distilling our integrated global oil and North American gas and power market analysis into a useful format for institutional investors

Digital E&P Strategies
Applying digital technology solutions to upstream exploration and production problems

Global Energy
Offering independent data and analysis on the impact of global forces on regional energy markets

Upstream Oil
Providing comprehensive insights into the fundamental economics and key drivers shaping the global crude oil industry

IHS Global Scenarios will feature contributions from experts supporting our IHS CERA, IHS Global Insight, IHS Herold, IHS Jane's, and IHS Fairplay product families, as well as external contributors. The IHS Scenarios team will use an interdisciplinary approach to offer a broad-based and in-depth understanding of the key issues and challenges facing the global business community.

IHS Global Scenarios products will harness our world-class expertise, with each group taking a lead in its area of expertise:

• IHS Global Insight in macroeconomics and industry
• IHS CERA and IHS Herold in energy
• IHS Jane's in defence and security
• IHS Fairplay in shipping

Project Directors

• James Burkhard
  Managing Director, IHS CERA
• Louis Carranza
  Vice President, Strategic Development, IHS CERA

Lead Advisors

• Daniel Yergin
  IHS CERA Chairman
• Nariman Behravesh
  IHS Chief Economist

Advisory Board Members

• David Hobbs, IHS CERA 
• Lawrence Makovich, IHS CERA
• Kevin Raby, IHS
• James Rosenfield, IHS CERA

Steering Committee Members

• Niklas Bengtsson, IHS Fairplay
• Thomas Biracree, IHS Herold
• William Edgar, IHS Jane's
• Robert Gillon, IHS Herold
• Tate Nurkin, IHS Jane's
• Zbyszko Tabernacki, IHS Global Insight

• Webinar Replay: IHS Global Scenarios—How to Use Alternative Futures in Your Strategic Planning (8 July 2010)
• Video Replay: Navigating Uncertainty—From Scenarios to Strategy (10 March 2010)
• Download IHS CERA Energy Scenarios Advisory Service brochure 
• Download IHS Automotive Scenarios Advisory Service brochure