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Results of our Economy Poll and
comments from Chief Economist,
Nariman Behravesh |
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Responses to our Economy Poll in June | Some of you participated in our Economy Poll in June. Here are the results of
the poll:
| The Worldwide Economy will be back to normal: |
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Later this year: |
5% |
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In early 2010: |
13% |
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In late 2010: |
24% |
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In 2011: |
44% |
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Is already back to normal: |
1% |
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Never: |
13% |
It is clear that many of you feel the economy will be back to normal sometime in 2011. Our Chief Economist, Nariman Behravesh from IHS Global Insight, has done analysis that points to a turn-around in economic growth by the end of the summer. Indicators of growth in other large economies (China, Japan and Germany) are also looking up, with sharp rebounds in key measures such as exports and industrial production. Nevertheless, there are major headwinds, which means that a V-shaped recovery is not the most likely outcome. These headwinds include continued problems in the banking sector, no quick recovery in housing and the need for households (notably in the United States) to increase savings. 
As a result, after a deep recession this year, growth next year will be lackluster (1.5% for the U.S. and 1.9% for the world economy). While there will be a recovery, it won't feel like a recovery. The good news is that by 2011, the U.S. and world economies will see trend or above-trend growth (between 3% and 3.5%).
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