NERC Reports Electricity Reliability Adequate This Winter
November 27, 2006 // Published as a news service by IHS
The announcement was made in conjunction with the release of the NERC report 2006/2007 Winter Assessment.
According to NERC, generating capacity margins have not changed significantly since last winter, with winter 2006/2007 margins judged to be adequate across North America.
Transmission reinforcements in Connecticut and Boston also will result in significant improvements to reliability in these areas, which NERC had previously placed on its reliability watch list.
Coal deliveries from the Powder River Basin, which were cited as an issue in the NERC report 2006 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, have improved significantly and coal stocks are increasing.
NERC forecasts peak demands for this winter will be higher than actual peaks recorded last winter in all areas except New England, Texas, the Southwest and parts of Missouri.
In New England, electricity price increases in 2005 and 2006 were the biggest factors in the lower peak demand forecast for this winter.
Colder-than-normal weather last winter in the other areas is the primary reason this winter's forecasts are lower than last year's actual demands.
According to NERC, transmission systems will be adequate for reliability purposes, but some constraints may reoccur to limit desired market transactions.
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) transmission system and critical flowgates in the ReliabilityFirst region have experienced large and volatile power flows in recent years due to large power transfers across and through these systems. If such flows occur again this winter, operators may be required to limit power exchanges to maintain system reliability.
Because home heating use places higher demands on winter natural gas supplies and the gas transportation system, the availability of natural gas for electricity generation is always a greater concern during the winter than during the summer, said NERC.
Texas has the highest dependence on natural gas for electricity generation (70%), with about one-fourth of gas-fueled capacity possessing the ability to switch to oil for limited periods if natural gas supply is interrupted or unavailable.
New England and Florida, which also have a high dependence on natural gas, have taken steps to avoid problems by coordinating more closely with natural gas pipeline operators. New England has also converted about 1,700 MW of natural gas-only capacity to dual-fuel capability since last winter.